Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[pepsa]

Tbh I realy hope Han Solo and the next episode of starwars get back on a positive trend! I still want more SW movies

[justvision]

2 hours ago, POTUS said:

at time of release

FF7  252k

FF8  321k

AOU 321k

CA3  568k

TF5  533k

WW2 401k

MH2 669k  Y547m OD

IW   947k  8 days out

 

 

 

I think one main reason for such high want-to-see figure is that AIW is released there two weeks later almost all other countries. For two weeks fans in China read great WOM from all over the world and the burning anticipation must have sent them into frenzy.

[justvision]

24 minutes ago, pepsa said:

 

Well it can't be worse than TLJ

Welp, it may be slightly worse than 10TLJ if it does USD400M.

[pepsa]

5 minutes ago, justvision said:

Welp, it may be slightly worse than 10TLJ if it does USD400M.

 

I ll have a melt down

[Rebeccas]

12 minutes ago, justvision said:

I think one main reason for such high want-to-see figure is that AIW is released there two weeks later almost all other countries. For two weeks fans in China read great WOM from all over the world and the burning anticipation must have sent them into frenzy.

Other than the F&F movies, don't most of these open a few weeks later in China as well?

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Other than the F&F movies, don't most of these open a few weeks later in China as well?

Big anticipated movie there, it is common to open at the same time in China or before, Pacific Rim, Tomb Raider, Transformer 4-5 all released around the same time or before than the USA I think.

[justvision]

9 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Other than the F&F movies, don't most of these open a few weeks later in China as well?

I did't check, but the higher figures for AoU and CA:CW than F7 and FF8 (a bigger franchise in China) were likely due to the fact that they were released later than rest of the world too.

[fabiopazzo2]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Probably and I think it will more likely than not overtake TFA WW. But we dont know yet how its legs will be in China

 

Black Panther’s presales were huge too and people were expecting 80-90m OW for that and 150m+ total. But it only opened to around 65 and then had only about 1.5x multi. IW presales are massive but we dont know how frontloaded it is gonna be. For all we know it could open to 175 only and then only manage a 1.75 multi like SMH and finish at 300m. 

 

I dont think IW’s ratings and WoM will be as weak as BP’s though and it should manage a better multi that that

This is a good point of view 

[The Mad Titan]

Since Civil War managed a 1.93x OW, I’m expected this to do at least 2.10x

 

Do we have any idea what AOU would have done if it was a 3 day weekend and not 5? I figure at least a 2.0x 

[HouseOfTheSun]

6 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Still heading to its average 15% rise today. Yesterday was very good but its back to its normal run for today. It will likely stay within its average range over the weekend too

15% is good number to hold onto with a higher base provided by the huge increase yesterday. At least I assume 

[ZeeSoh]

57 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

15% is good number to hold onto with a higher base provided by the huge increase yesterday. At least I assume 

It is. 15% increases every day and then just 50% rise on the last day still takes this over F8 so yeah the base is quite high and the increases very good as well

[Thrylos 7]

1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

This is a good point of view 

Nope comparing black panther with IW IN CHINA is not a good point of view.

[fabiopazzo2]

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/03/c_137153580.htm

 

BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Box office sales of Disney and Marvel's latest blockbuster "Avengers: Infinity War" have surpassed 100 million yuan (15.71 million U.S. dollars) in China at its presale stage by Thursday, according to Maoyan, a major film database.

The milestone was reached eight days before the film officially hits screens on the Chinese mainland.

Over 45 million yuan was for screenings next Friday, the film's opening day, when the film is estimated to take up 96.5 percent of total screenings, according to Maoyan.

[The Mad Titan]

6 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/03/c_137153580.htm

 

BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Box office sales of Disney and Marvel's latest blockbuster "Avengers: Infinity War" have surpassed 100 million yuan (15.71 million U.S. dollars) in China at its presale stage by Thursday, according to Maoyan, a major film database.

The milestone was reached eight days before the film officially hits screens on the Chinese mainland.

Over 45 million yuan was for screenings next Friday, the film's opening day, when the film is estimated to take up 96.5 percent of total screenings, according to Maoyan.

100 million down, 1.5 billion to go (for OW)!

[Belle]

6 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

Was BP WOM worse in China than other Asian countries?

I'd say yes. It performed exceptionally well in several Asian markets despite reports of average wom and complaints that it lacked action. 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Belle

[Olive]

43 minutes ago, Belle said:

I'd say yes. It performed exceptionally well in several Asian markets despite reports of average wom and complaints that it lacked action. 

 

 

holiday  boost

[Belle]

1 hour ago, Proxima Olive said:

holiday  boost

Oh yeah I forgot about that. 

EDIT: My bad. 

Edited May 4, 2018 by Belle

[fmpro]

Looks like a 17-19% increase today

[POTUS 2020]

5 hours ago, fmpro said:

Looks like a 17-19% increase today

I concur.  17% two days in a row. Could be 20% if evening is stronger. Its already at 90k shows. They usually list 60% of shows by Monday night.  FF8 had 95k shows monday of its 165k total, IW is on pace to have 110k+ listed by then confirming a possible 190k total. We were good at tracking PS for FF8 but the PS multi threw us a curve at 2.5 instead of the usual minimum of 3, so my Y500mOD, Y1600m/$230mOW fell $35m short

 

Im not bumping 2 and 3 days out at all and I reduced the PS multi to 2.25 to be safe and I still get $232m OW. I have the total at 1.9x OW , again playing it cautios and leaving room for plenty of upside.

I projected today to 59m, could reach 60m

         JttW2          WC                                FF8                                      IW

PS 1am	OD	%gain		MN	%gain	PS	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain	Shows
Sa	12.7			9.2		8.8					2.5				9.0	14.0%	18.5	3.1	26.5%	59.2
Su	16.9	32.7%		11.0	19.6%	12.0	37.1%				5.4	2.9	116.0%		10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%	63.0
Mo	19.4	14.9%		13.0	18.2%	14.8	23.3%				8.3	2.9	53.7%		11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%	66.0
Tu	22.1	14.2%		14.9	14.6%	17.0	14.9%				11.4	3.1	37.3%		11.9	8.2%	29.0	3.4	13.5%	69.7
We	25.5	15.3%		16.0	7.4%	20.0	17.6%		5.0		14.5	3.1	27.2%		12.8	7.6%	33.7	4.7	16.2%	72.8
Th	29.1	14.1%		18.1	13.1%	23.0	15.0%		6.4	28.0%	19.5	5.0	34.5%		15.0	17.2%	43.1	9.4	27.9%	79.7
Fr	33.3	14.4%		19.6	8.3%	27.0	17.4%		8.0	25.0%	24.6	5.1	26.2%		16.6	10.7%	50.4	7.3	16.9%	86.9
Sa	38.4	15.3%		21.8	11.2%	31.5	16.7%		9.8	22.5%	33.0	8.4	34.1%		18.0	8.4%	59.0	8.6	17.1%	92.5
Su	44.0	14.6%		22.5	3.2%	35.9	14.0%		11.3	15.3%	39.6	6.6	20.0%		20.5	13.9%	69.0	10.0	17.0%	proj
Mo	51.0	15.9%		23.4	4.0%	40.8	13.6%		13.6	20.4%	48.0	8.4	21.2%		22.7	10.7%	80.8	11.7	17.0%	proj
Tu	57.0	11.8%		25.7	9.8%	44.8	9.8%		17.4	27.9%	63.0	15.0	31.3%		25.0	10.1%	94.5	13.7	17.0%	proj
We	72.0	26.3%		27.1	5.4%	50.7	13.2%		22.0	26.4%	84.0	21.0	33.3%		27.5	10.0%	110.6	16.1	17.0%	proj
Th	88.8	23.3%		30.0	10.7%	64.8	27.8%		27.0	22.7%	106.0	22.0	26.2%		30.4	10.5%	129.4	18.8	17.0%	proj
Fr(OD)	140.0	57.7%		50.1	67.0%	96.0	48.1%		62.0	129.6%	165.0	59.0	55.7%		70.0	130.3%	201.5	72.1	55.8%	proj
OD BO	356.0	154.3%				251.5	162.0%		62.0		417.0		152.7%		70.0		453.4		125.0%
Multi		2.54					2.62						2.52						2.25
	OD	OW		Total	OD $	OW $	Total $
JttW2	356	777		1656	52	113	240
WC	251	819		1472	36	125	225
FF8	417	1352		2671	60	196	387
IW	453	1469		2791	72	232	442

 

 

Edited May 4, 2018 by POTUS

[POTUS 2020]

14 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/03/c_137153580.htm

 

BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Box office sales of Disney and Marvel's latest blockbuster "Avengers: Infinity War" have surpassed 100 million yuan (15.71 million U.S. dollars) in China at its presale stage by Thursday, according to Maoyan, a major film database.

The milestone was reached eight days before the film officially hits screens on the Chinese mainland.

Over 45 million yuan was for screenings next Friday, the film's opening day, when the film is estimated to take up 96.5 percent of total screenings, according to Maoyan.

It has 94% of shows currently listed, most holdover shows are listed on the last few days. It will drop below 70% when all shows are listed

It could take 95% of the BO though

Edited May 4, 2018 by POTUS