Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[fabiopazzo2]

Imagine if not break any record 

[Rebeccas]

3 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Imagine if not break any record 

#notanevent

[fabiopazzo2]

3 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

#notanevent

Grance Randolph will be happy 

Edited May 8, 2018 by fabiopazzo2

[Lordmandeep]

what is base for this film for now?

 

200/350?

[ZeeSoh]

On 5/7/2018 at 9:37 PM, ZeeSoh said:

 

Infinity War (3 days out)

 

Midnight - 22.67

OD - 88.6 (+18.13%)(112,737 screens)

Sat - 61.3

Sun - 26.6

 

Better than expected increase for today. Very strong evening and night increases because it was not looking it would hit even 15% during the day. 12k screens were added today which helped with the increase. More screens will be added tomorrow which should help see an acceleration in presales

 

Saturday continues to look very strong as well and has been increasing more than opening day. 

 

With better than expected increase today it can increase a bit less tomorrow and still be on track. I am still expecting around 200m PS OD. 

 

Infinity War (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 25.6

OD - 107 (+20.6%)(133,434 screens)

Sat - 76.6 (+25%)

Sun - 33.53 (+26%)

 

Expected increase today. About 20k screens were added. Saturday once again showing an amazing increase and now Sunday is also showing good higher increases. 

 

It needs to increase 25% tomorrow and then 50% on Thursday to hit 200m in OD PS. 

 

Right now I have it at 204m usd opening weekend with decent ratings. I am fairly conservative with this prediction and am using very low multipliers so it could blow way past this number. On the other hand if ratings are as bad as Black Panther then it could come in lower than this. 

Edited May 8, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[POTUS 2020]

24 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

what is base for this film for now?

 

200/350?

I dont see how it misses $230m/400m

 

I have tomorrow's PS bumping less than today. I dropped the last increase to 50%, FF8 was 57%. The PS multi is the lowest of the 4 movies at 2.5 and I still get $257m and there is much room to improve.   two critical times- 1300 on thursday we'll know the final PS bump, 1300 on Friday we'll know the OD run rate and the potential of the weekend.  The target was 249m this am, raised to $257m.

I have a feeling the target will be over 260m tomorrow

 

	JttW2			WC					FF8						IW
PS 1am	OD	%gain		MN	%gain	PS	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain	Shows
Sa	12.7			9.2		8.8					2.5				9.0	14.0%	18.5	3.1	26.5%	59.2
Su	16.9	32.7%		11.0	19.6%	12.0	37.1%				5.4	2.9	116.0%		10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%	63.0
Mo	19.4	14.9%		13.0	18.2%	14.8	23.3%				8.3	2.9	53.7%		11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%	66.0
Tu	22.1	14.2%		14.9	14.6%	17.0	14.9%				11.4	3.1	37.3%		11.9	8.2%	29.0	3.4	13.5%	69.7
We	25.5	15.3%		16.0	7.4%	20.0	17.6%		5.0		14.5	3.1	27.2%		12.8	7.6%	33.7	4.7	16.2%	72.8
Th	29.1	14.1%		18.1	13.1%	23.0	15.0%		6.4	28.0%	19.5	5.0	34.5%		15.0	17.2%	43.1	9.4	27.9%	79.7
Fr	33.3	14.4%		19.6	8.3%	27.0	17.4%		8.0	25.0%	24.6	5.1	26.2%		16.6	10.7%	50.4	7.3	16.9%	86.9
Sa	38.4	15.3%		21.8	11.2%	31.5	16.7%		9.8	22.5%	33.0	8.4	34.1%		17.9	7.8%	58.2	7.8	15.5%	93.1
Su	44.0	14.6%		22.5	3.2%	35.9	14.0%		11.3	15.3%	39.6	6.6	20.0%		19.3	7.8%	65.8	7.6	13.1%	97.0
Mo	51.0	15.9%		23.4	4.0%	40.8	13.6%		13.6	20.4%	48.0	8.4	21.2%		20.9	8.3%	75.3	9.5	14.4%	100.5
Tu	57.0	11.8%		25.7	9.8%	44.8	9.8%		17.4	27.9%	63.0	15.0	31.3%		22.8	9.1%	88.9	13.6	18.1%	112.8
We	72.0	26.3%		27.1	5.4%	50.7	13.2%		22.0	26.4%	84.0	21.0	33.3%		25.8	13.2%	107.5	18.6	20.9%	133.5
Th	88.8	23.3%		30.0	10.7%	64.8	27.8%		27.0	22.7%	106.0	22.0	26.2%		29.0	12.4%	127.5	20.0	18.6%	proj
Fr(OD)	140.0	57.7%		50.1	67.0%	96.0	48.1%		62.0	129.6%	165.0	59.0	55.7%		66.7	130.0%	191.3	63.8	50.0%	proj
OD BO	356.0	154.3%				251.5	162.0%		62.0		417.0		152.7%		66.7		478.1		150.0%
Multi		2.54					2.62						2.52						2.50
	OD	OW		Total	OD $	OW $	Total $
JttW2	356	777		1656	52	113	240
WC	251	819		1472	36	125	225
FF8	417	1352		2671	60	196	387
IW	478	1626		2926	76	257	463		proj

Edited May 8, 2018 by POTUS

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

[Daxtreme]

This will be a run for the ages...

 

Well, until Avengers 4 that is

 

[ZattMurdock]

 

[POTUS 2020]

When is IronJimbo going to show up and tell us how much more A2 will be than thgis

[The Mad Titan]

1 hour ago, POTUS said:

I dont see how it misses $230m/400m

 

I have tomorrow's PS bumping less than today. I dropped the last increase to 50%, FF8 was 57%. The PS multi is the lowest of the 4 movies at 2.5 and I still get $257m and there is much room to improve.   two critical times- 1300 on thursday we'll know the final PS bump, 1300 on Friday we'll know the OD run rate and the potential of the weekend.  The target was 249m this am, raised to $257m.

I have a feeling the target will be over 260m tomorrow

 

	JttW2			WC					FF8						IW
PS 1am	OD	%gain		MN	%gain	PS	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain	Shows
Sa	12.7			9.2		8.8					2.5				9.0	14.0%	18.5	3.1	26.5%	59.2
Su	16.9	32.7%		11.0	19.6%	12.0	37.1%				5.4	2.9	116.0%		10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%	63.0
Mo	19.4	14.9%		13.0	18.2%	14.8	23.3%				8.3	2.9	53.7%		11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%	66.0
Tu	22.1	14.2%		14.9	14.6%	17.0	14.9%				11.4	3.1	37.3%		11.9	8.2%	29.0	3.4	13.5%	69.7
We	25.5	15.3%		16.0	7.4%	20.0	17.6%		5.0		14.5	3.1	27.2%		12.8	7.6%	33.7	4.7	16.2%	72.8
Th	29.1	14.1%		18.1	13.1%	23.0	15.0%		6.4	28.0%	19.5	5.0	34.5%		15.0	17.2%	43.1	9.4	27.9%	79.7
Fr	33.3	14.4%		19.6	8.3%	27.0	17.4%		8.0	25.0%	24.6	5.1	26.2%		16.6	10.7%	50.4	7.3	16.9%	86.9
Sa	38.4	15.3%		21.8	11.2%	31.5	16.7%		9.8	22.5%	33.0	8.4	34.1%		17.9	7.8%	58.2	7.8	15.5%	93.1
Su	44.0	14.6%		22.5	3.2%	35.9	14.0%		11.3	15.3%	39.6	6.6	20.0%		19.3	7.8%	65.8	7.6	13.1%	97.0
Mo	51.0	15.9%		23.4	4.0%	40.8	13.6%		13.6	20.4%	48.0	8.4	21.2%		20.9	8.3%	75.3	9.5	14.4%	100.5
Tu	57.0	11.8%		25.7	9.8%	44.8	9.8%		17.4	27.9%	63.0	15.0	31.3%		22.8	9.1%	88.9	13.6	18.1%	112.8
We	72.0	26.3%		27.1	5.4%	50.7	13.2%		22.0	26.4%	84.0	21.0	33.3%		25.8	13.2%	107.5	18.6	20.9%	133.5
Th	88.8	23.3%		30.0	10.7%	64.8	27.8%		27.0	22.7%	106.0	22.0	26.2%		29.0	12.4%	127.5	20.0	18.6%	proj
Fr(OD)	140.0	57.7%		50.1	67.0%	96.0	48.1%		62.0	129.6%	165.0	59.0	55.7%		66.7	130.0%	191.3	63.8	50.0%	proj
OD BO	356.0	154.3%				251.5	162.0%		62.0		417.0		152.7%		66.7		478.1		150.0%
Multi		2.54					2.62						2.52						2.50
	OD	OW		Total	OD $	OW $	Total $
JttW2	356	777		1656	52	113	240
WC	251	819		1472	36	125	225
FF8	417	1352		2671	60	196	387
IW	478	1626		2926	76	257	463		proj

If this ends up beating domestic OW that would be crazy. I take it you’re being cautious on the total? 

[Lordmandeep]

400 in China would lock up 2 billion WW.

 

That is the goal I am aiming for

[POTUS 2020]

24 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

If this ends up beating domestic OW that would be crazy. I take it you’re being cautious on the total? 

on OW? trying to be dead on at 257, its got room to go up though.  I picked 255m for domestic in the derby, I was close there, maybe I'm short again

 

As far as the total, i dropped the OW multi to 1.8. The bigger  the hype and weekend the smaller the multi. They like to rush to see the new thing more than domestic and they have enough seats for half the country now. WoM will have to spread to the GA to get it over $500m

Edited May 8, 2018 by POTUS

[ThomasNicole]

29 minutes ago, POTUS said:

When is IronJimbo going to show up and tell us how much more A2 will be than thgis

How much you expect for Avatar 2?

[The Mad Titan]

5 minutes ago, POTUS said:

on OW? trying to be dead on, its got room to go up though.

 

As far as the total, i dropped the OW multi to 1.8. The bigger  the hype and weekend the smaller the multi. They like to rush to see the new thing more than domestic and they have enough seats for half the country now. WoM will have to spread to the GA to get it over $500m

I’m hoping it at least matches FF8 multiple. It’s current Douban rating is quite a bit higher than FF8.

[POTUS 2020]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

How much you expect for Avatar 2?

I have no legit idea.  HLWD  was leading the all time list annually but stalled at $400m for 3 years. Locals have blown through 500m a few times and over 800m once since then.  A lot of the theaters have been built in the 3rd and 4th tier cities in the last 3 years and they prefer local films.

If A2 resonates nationwide like A1 did WW then I guess 800m+ would be possible.  Otherwise IWs total would be a target. I think 30%  or more of A1s BO was the new CGI/3D. So I guess A2 could be 600mDom/1bOS/400mChina unless he knocks it out of the park again with new effects

 

@Proxima Olive can A2 have a larger audience than IW?

[Lothar]

3 hours ago, POTUS said:

When is IronJimbo going to show up and tell us how much more A2 will be than thgis

Not only @IronJimbo But I'm too expecting 1B $ for A2 in China.

[commendable]

Thanos is going to be the most popular movie character, one that will go down in history after this. Along with Ironman. Even china love this guy.

 

 

Also, I predict ant-man will have a 150m Opening in china.

[fmpro]

3 minutes ago, commendable said:

Thanos is going to be the most popular movie character, one that will go down in history after this. Along with Ironman. Even china love this guy.

 

 

Also, I predict ant-man will have a 150m Opening in china.

 

Good luck with that prediction unless its in yuan.. 

55-60 mill $ tops

[ZeeSoh]

4 minutes ago, commendable said:

Thanos is going to be the most popular movie character, one that will go down in history after this. Along with Ironman. Even china love this guy.

 

 

Also, I predict ant-man will have a 150m Opening in china.

Wtf? Thats insane. Its gonna have an opening weekend 43% bigger than the entire total of the first part?

 

it’s gonna be lucky if it gets to the number in its entire run. What exactly makes u think it will do this?