Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, fmpro said:

That Saturday number is just unbeliveble. I know we talk alot about OD but saturday is 70% of OD without any holiday. Thats just... WOW

That is a even more impressive number than OD IMO

I'm feeling that the Saturday could be even bigger than Friday, due to the abnormally high presales. Assuming it can get the showtimes, it may actually increase Sat

[POTUS 2020]

31 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I'm feeling that the Saturday could be even bigger than Friday, due to the abnormally high presales. Assuming it can get the showtimes, it may actually increase Sat

FF8 bumped 17% with 18%(187k) more shows on saturday

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, POTUS said:

FF8 bumped 17% with 18%(187k) more shows on saturday

But MH2 dropped 170m and DC2 dropped a little. Red Sea increased ~20m, but that wasn't expected to be so highly rated.

 

Just with the increased frontloadedness of these movies, I don't want to expect an increase, because then it probably won't happen.

 

Also I know CNY isn't quite the best comparison since going to the movies on CNY itself is a tradition for China.

[POTUS 2020]

43 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

But MH2 dropped 170m and DC2 dropped a little. Red Sea increased ~20m, but that wasn't expected to be so highly rated.

 

Just with the increased frontloadedness of these movies, I don't want to expect an increase, because then it probably won't happen.

 

Also I know CNY isn't quite the best comparison since going to the movies on CNY itself is a tradition for China.

MH2 was a holiday start, not a workday Friday.  Generally there is burn off the second day, MH2 wasnt well received and really dropped

[Olive]

Some were worried that this Sat being 10th anniversary of Sichuan Earthquake may hurt IW's performance ,

but man Saturday presales are even busier than OD at the moment..

Edited May 8, 2018 by Proxima Olive

[The Mad Titan]

11 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said:

Some were worried that this Sat being 10th anniversary may hurt IW's performance ,

but man Saturday presales are even busier than OD at the moment..

What do you think that means for the weekend? It's pretty unusual yes?

[Sam]

9 hours ago, The Mad Titan said:

And for reference, IW is over 1.05 million on “want to see”. 

 

Do do we have any idea what the record is for that? I assume it’s IW but what about next closest?

How big is this? 

 

Someone please convert it into the Ranger Solo scale so I can understand better.

 

Like 100xRanger Solo for example. 

[Rebeccas]

Apparently Ranger Solo is at like 2k 

[Gavin Feng]

6 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Apparently Ranger Solo is at like 2k 

4K now. Very big.

[The Mad Titan]

17 minutes ago, Sam said:

How big is this? 

 

Someone please convert it into the Ranger Solo scale so I can understand better.

 

Like 100xRanger Solo for example. 

So roughly 250x Ranger Solo.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

4K now. Very big.

I was going to say “wow, if it can keep doubling every few days like this it will overtake IW in no time.” Then I realized that it would actually be below IW even after 8 doublings  

[Fake]

13 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Infinity War (3 days out)

 

Midnight - 22.67

OD - 88.6 (+18.13%)(112,737 screens)

Sat - 61.3

Sun - 26.6

 

Better than expected increase for today. Very strong evening and night increases because it was not looking it would hit even 15% during the day. 12k screens were added today which helped with the increase. More screens will be added tomorrow which should help see an acceleration in presales

 

Saturday continues to look very strong as well and has been increasing more than opening day. 

 

With better than expected increase today it can increase a bit less tomorrow and still be on track. I am still expecting around 200m PS OD. 

Nearly 200M combined presales for OW!! Has to be a record 3 days out.

[Gavin Feng]

OW Pre-Sale Record

 

Monster Hunt 2 - ¥367M

The Fate of the Furious - ¥325M

Detective Chinatown - ¥238M

Avengers: Infinity War - ¥214M (58 hours before opening)

Transformers 5 - ¥201M

 

[POTUS 2020]

13 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

OW Pre-Sale Record

 

Monster Hunt 2 - ¥367M

The Fate of the Furious - ¥325M

Detective Chinatown - ¥238M

Avengers: Infinity War - ¥214M (58 hours before opening)

Transformers 5 - ¥201M

 

IW going to finish at 450m

[HouseOfTheSun]

3 hours ago, Proxima Olive said:

Some were worried that this Sat being 10th anniversary of Sichuan Earthquake may hurt IW's performance ,

but man Saturday presales are even busier than OD at the moment..

Is it because of too much demand on OD?

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

OW Pre-Sale Record

 

Monster Hunt 2 - ¥367M

The Fate of the Furious - ¥325M

Detective Chinatown - ¥238M

Avengers: Infinity War - ¥214M (58 hours before opening)

Transformers 5 - ¥201M

 

Eyeballing POTUS’s charts, it looks like presales often approximately double from the 58 hours before point. Does that mean we’re looking at low-mid 400s for IW? 

Edit: Lol, my timing. That’s could be as much as +40% from FF8, crazy.

Edited May 8, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[HouseOfTheSun]

5 minutes ago, POTUS said:

IW going to finish at 450m

I’m hoping for 3.5B for final performance. 

 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, POTUS said:

IW going to finish at 450m

Presumably when you break the presales record by that much you get saddled with a worse presales multi as a consequence, but it really seems like the DOM OW figure could get topped if things continue going well.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Presumably when you break the presales record by that much you get saddled with a worse presales multi as a consequence, but it really seems like the DOM OW figure could get topped if things continue going well.

That happened to us with FF8. we thought the PS multi should've been at least 3 since most movies were 3.3 to 4 and a 500m OD was thought to happen. So its set to 2.5 this time like FF8. It is possible it could be 2.25 but I'm counting on 20% more PS along with 20% more shows, same saturation.  AoU had bigger Friday and Saturday bumps than FF7 during their runs. I believe it skews younger.  We could see Saturday bump better than FF8s 18%, Sat PS suggest that.  We will have a firm grip on the weekend at 1300 on Friday.  For now PS a little stronger than projected. Running over 1m per hour, PS should reach 105 tonight.

OW weekend raised to $249m

 

 

	JttW2			WC					FF8						IW
PS 1am	OD	%gain		MN	%gain	PS	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain	Shows
Sa	12.7			9.2		8.8					2.5				9.0	14.0%	18.5	3.1	26.5%	59.2
Su	16.9	32.7%		11.0	19.6%	12.0	37.1%				5.4	2.9	116.0%		10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%	63.0
Mo	19.4	14.9%		13.0	18.2%	14.8	23.3%				8.3	2.9	53.7%		11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%	66.0
Tu	22.1	14.2%		14.9	14.6%	17.0	14.9%				11.4	3.1	37.3%		11.9	8.2%	29.0	3.4	13.5%	69.7
We	25.5	15.3%		16.0	7.4%	20.0	17.6%		5.0		14.5	3.1	27.2%		12.8	7.6%	33.7	4.7	16.2%	72.8
Th	29.1	14.1%		18.1	13.1%	23.0	15.0%		6.4	28.0%	19.5	5.0	34.5%		15.0	17.2%	43.1	9.4	27.9%	79.7
Fr	33.3	14.4%		19.6	8.3%	27.0	17.4%		8.0	25.0%	24.6	5.1	26.2%		16.6	10.7%	50.4	7.3	16.9%	86.9
Sa	38.4	15.3%		21.8	11.2%	31.5	16.7%		9.8	22.5%	33.0	8.4	34.1%		17.9	7.8%	58.2	7.8	15.5%	93.1
Su	44.0	14.6%		22.5	3.2%	35.9	14.0%		11.3	15.3%	39.6	6.6	20.0%		19.3	7.8%	65.8	7.6	13.1%	97.0
Mo	51.0	15.9%		23.4	4.0%	40.8	13.6%		13.6	20.4%	48.0	8.4	21.2%		20.9	8.3%	75.3	9.5	14.4%	100.5
Tu	57.0	11.8%		25.7	9.8%	44.8	9.8%		17.4	27.9%	63.0	15.0	31.3%		22.8	9.1%	88.9	13.6	18.1%	112.8
We	72.0	26.3%		27.1	5.4%	50.7	13.2%		22.0	26.4%	84.0	21.0	33.3%		25.0	9.6%	105.0	16.1	18.1%	130.0
Th	88.8	23.3%		30.0	10.7%	64.8	27.8%		27.0	22.7%	106.0	22.0	26.2%		28.0	12.0%	125.0	20.0	19.0%	proj
Fr(OD)	140.0	57.7%		50.1	67.0%	96.0	48.1%		62.0	129.6%	165.0	59.0	55.7%		64.4	130.0%	194.6	69.6	55.7%	proj
OD BO	356.0	154.3%				251.5	162.0%		62.0		417.0		152.7%		64.4		486.6		150.0%
Multi		2.54					2.62						2.52						2.50
	OD	OW		Total	OD $	OW $	Total $
JttW2	356	777		1656	52	113	240
WC	251	819		1472	36	125	225
FF8	417	1352		2671	60	196	387
IW	487	1576		2995	77	249	474		proj

 

 

Edited May 8, 2018 by POTUS

[POTUS 2020]

On 4/11/2017 at 8:27 AM, keysersoze123 said:

today its doing better than yesterday but acceleration has not been as much as I thought. Will not see 40% increase today. Probably looking at 25-30% increase. Currently at 70.12m and including midnights at 88.69m. Number of OD show will hit 100K in next hour.

 

Edit: crossed 100K shows at 230PM. and in few minutes increased 600k. So its hitting the 3rd gear for sure.

 

45 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Presumably when you break the presales record by that much you get saddled with a worse presales multi as a consequence, but it really seems like the DOM OW figure could get topped if things continue going well.

The other thing that could slip is the last day bump of PS. This PS run started much earlier, but they usually save the last 40% of shows for the last 3 days.  FF8 was 100k shows on Tues at 1430,  IW is at 124k. If the final tally is 20% more than this is close to inline. But it could be a 48% bump like WC on the chart. That knocks the weekend down to $237m

In summation

The PS multi could knock the weekend down 10%

The last day PS bump could reduce WE by 5%

However we could see a higher saturation by 5% and 

10% larger Saturday bump  that would add 8% to the WE

$225-275m is possible

Im sticking with 230-260m as my range

I think they will fudge it if its close to $257

 

Edited May 8, 2018 by POTUS