Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[POTUS 2020]

5 hours ago, bangbingchan said:

US and Them is not just a YA film.it's focus on story of migrant worker in big city.it's a nostalgic film.This may have potential to explode in big city and small village.Screen and preview WoM is excellent So far.Guess GA score Douban 7+ Maoyan 9+

It is So Young(2013) +Ex3 this year.

Presale and Buzz is So strong

So Young is top3 in 2013.Ex3 is top4 in 2017.

If it is more GA friendly than at least 2.5x PS should happen for 250m+ OD. PS havent picked up, may just reach 100m. But it can do 8x OD with holiday help for 2b/$300m as you said.

Is Saturday doing to play like a friday, then bump on sun and mon?

 

Ex3 did 30x OD for a 1.94B total. Impressive

 

Edited April 24, 2018 by POTUS

[ZeeSoh]

Infinity War (16 days out)

 

OD PS - 4.59 (+41.2%) (27868 screens)

 

Good rise once again today although the screen count did not increase much. Hopefully the good reviews will help maintain or even accelerate PS tomorrow. 

 

It’s already close to where BP was 8 days out and where Thor 3 was 3 days out!

Edited April 24, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[POTUS 2020]

IW Wed 1am 4.6m +42%  28k shows  16 days out

 

it will probably add another 1.3m tomorrow for a 30% increase then show us the daily run rate on thursday, perhaps 20% which would take PS to 120m-130m

Edited April 24, 2018 by POTUS

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 hour ago, POTUS said:

IW Wed 1am 4.6m +42%  28k shows  16 days out

 

it will probably add another 1.3m tomorrow for a 30% increase then show us the daily run rate on thursday, perhaps 20% which would take PS to 120m-130m

Comparisons with top presellers?

[ZeeSoh]

IW already up 30% by 4pm. I reckon we’re gonna see another 50+ percent jump today. Only 5k extra screens were added so I think the positive reviews is what is driving the presales today

[POTUS 2020]

14 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Comparisons with top presellers?

I thought TF5 could get to 130m in PS but finished with 95m and did 3x PS on OD for 290m

TF5 OW was 872m/$134m  Total 1551m/$238m

 

If it runs at 15% daily the PS will come in close to TF5

 

FF8 below could be a comparison as we get closer. It wont match it but we can calibrate it. It had just a 2.5 PS multi do to sellouts. Being listed at 2 weeks out it averaged 30% increases after the initial roll out and only ramped up on the last day at 56%

 

For now IW is still in its initial roll out phase. At 5.6m up 1m +22% at 1530 and will be up at least 40% again which cant keep going on. We'll get a fair Idea if PS will be 100m or 130m.  I think the PS multi will be close to 3 like TF5 unless PS are much higher. TF5 had a bad rating of 7.4. IW should beat it OW with an 8.5 or better

On 4/15/2017 at 9:28 AM, POTUS said:

	JttW2					WC			FF8
PS 1am	OD PS	% gain		MN PS	% gain	OD PS	% gain		MN PS	% gain	OD PS	gain	% gain
Sa	12.7					8.8					2.5
Su	16.9	32.7%		11.0		12.0	37.1%				5.4	2.9	116.0%
Mo	19.4	14.9%		13.0		14.8	23.3%				8.3	2.9	53.7%
Tu	22.1	14.2%		14.9		17.0	14.9%				11.4	3.1	37.3%
We	25.5	15.3%		16.0		20.0	17.6%		5.0		14.5	3.1	27.2%
Th	29.1	14.1%		18.1	0.0%	23.0	15.0%		6.4	28.0%	19.5	5.0	34.5%
Fr	33.3	14.4%		19.6	8.3%	27.0	17.4%		8.0	25.0%	24.6	5.1	26.2%
Sa	38.4	15.3%		21.8	11.2%	31.5	16.7%		9.8	22.5%	33.0	8.4	34.1%
Su	44.0	14.6%		22.5	3.2%	35.9	14.0%		11.3	15.3%	39.6	6.6	20.0%
Mo	51.0	15.9%		23.4	4.0%	40.8	13.6%		13.6	20.4%	48.0	8.4	21.2%
Tu	57.0	11.8%		25.7	9.8%	44.8	9.8%		17.4	27.9%	63.0	15.0	31.3%
We	72.0	26.3%		27.1	5.4%	50.7	13.2%		22.0	26.4%	84.0	21.0	33.3%
Th	88.8	23.3%		30.0	10.7%	64.8	27.8%		30.0	36.4%	106.0	22.0	26.2%
Fr(OD)	140.0	57.7%		50.1	67.0%	96.0	48.1%		60.0	100.0%	165.0	59.0	55.7%
OD Rev	356.0	154.3%				251.5	162.0%		60.0		417.0		152.7%
Multi		2.54					2.62						2.52
	OD	OW		Total	OD $	OW $	Total $		TF5
JttW2	356	777		1656	52	113	240		MN PS	% gain	OD PS		% gain
WC	251	819		1472	36	125	225
FF8	384	1306		2742	56	189	397
TF5	0	0		0	0	0	0
							Wed
							Thu
							Fri
							Sat
							Sun
							Mon
							Tue
							Wed
							Thu
							Fri OD
							OD Rev
							Psmulti

 

After keeping ahead of JttW2s and WCs pace for 2 weeks it wound up with the lowest PS multi and fell below hopeful expectations. It will be a good chart for T5. T4 made 175m with just 60k show in 2014. With 2000 more screens added and a school out Friday, maybe it cracks 500m OD with 175k shows. T4s runtime was 2:45. We'll be sure to factor that in next time.

 

Edited April 25, 2018 by POTUS

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

IW already up 30% by 4pm. I reckon we’re gonna see another 50+ percent jump today. Only 5k extra screens were added so I think the positive reviews is what is driving the presales today

Bumping even more than I thought since I started writing the last post an hour ago.

Thats making 120mPS, 360mOD, 1100m/$175mOW look more possible

Edited April 25, 2018 by POTUS

[UserHN]

19 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Bumping even more than I thought since I started writing the last post an hour ago.

Thats making 120mPS, 360mOD, 1100m/$175m look more possible

That $175M is for OW?

[peludo]

20 minutes ago, UserHN said:

That $175M is for OW?

Yes

[Olive]

Wanda ,CGV etc just begin presales, thus the big increase.

[fabiopazzo2]

@Gavin Feng

 

[IronJimbo]

so what's this mean for the total gross?

[peludo]

22 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

so what's this mean for the total gross?

$300m seem possible, even probable. But I think it is early to say if it can go higher than that. Maybe others who know more about CBO can give a more accurate data.

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, Proxima Olive said:

Wanda ,CGV etc just begin presales, thus the big increase.

shows increased by 50% to 43k

1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

@Gavin Feng

 

How is it stronger? FF8 was at 14.5m on wed, its 5th full day of PS albeit 9 days out, not 16. see chart in above post. Hard to compare and say

[Gavin Feng]

Pre-sale of some theater chains just opened on today. Huge increase(70%) in the recent 10 hours. 

[ZeeSoh]

23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Infinity War (16 days out)

 

OD PS - 4.59 (+41.2%) (27868 screens)

 

Good rise once again today although the screen count did not increase much. Hopefully the good reviews will help maintain or even accelerate PS tomorrow. 

 

It’s already close to where BP was 8 days out and where Thor 3 was 3 days out!

 

Infinity War (15 days out)

 

Midnight - 5.62m

OD PS - 8.52m (+85.6%) (44374 screens)

Sat - 4.27m

Sun - 2.35m

 

A huge nearly 86% jump today thanks to about 16k (+60%) screens being added today from new theatre chains. Another thing to note is that the thursday preview numbers are also huge. 

 

For comparision it is ahead of where BP was 5 days out and where Thor 3 was 2 days out!

Edited April 25, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[HouseOfTheSun]

6 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Infinity War (15 days out)

 

Midnight - 5.62m

OD PS - 8.52m (+85.6%) (44374 screens)

Sat - 4.27m

Sun - 2.35m

 

A huge nearly 86% jump today thanks to about 16k (+60%) screens being added today from new theatre chains. Another thing to note is that the thursday preview numbers are also huge. 

 

For comparision it is ahead of where BP was 5 days out and where Thor 3 was 2 days out!

Possibility of getting into MH2/Fate of the Furious opening territory?

[ZeeSoh]

1 minute ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Possibility of getting into MH2/Fate of the Furious opening territory?

Difficult but not impossible. Too early to tell where the presales will finish, will have to let them stabilize to get an idea. Right now with screens being added the presales are quite high. It will also all depend on ratings, a high enough rating, perhaps in the 90’s could push it high enough to challenge those movies. 

 

Also WOM in SK, HK and Taiwan is very good and usually that is reflected in the chinese market too so that bodes well for IW

[bangbingchan]

FF8 haven't started presale so early,right？Strange comparison.when FF8 presale is zero at this point.AIW presale is strong.stronger than FF8 at the same point？It's a bit early to say.

Edited April 25, 2018 by bangbingchan

[Olive]

IW audience rating is similar or better than RPO in Taiwan and HK

Now, I won't worry its reception in China Mainland