Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Olive]

1 minute ago, POTUS said:

IW PS going to be up 15% with just 2200 shows added.

Just needs to be up 13% daily to 3 days out then 20, 30, 55% to get to 165m.

The next 3 days will tell us whether it'll be 150m, 165m or 200m?

I saw one theater had 6 shows listed from 930 to 2355. Some here said that FF8 had 7am shows. Maybe they added them last minute.

 

@Proxima Olive are they up to 60k screens now? If it gets 30k screens at 6 shows per, it could have 180k shows.

10% more shows plus an 8% XR increase over FF8 gives $225m a good chance

55-56k

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

[Stewart]

14 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

Shiiiiit

 

[Sam]

Legs can be as wonky as they come, but with the hype from all over the world, gonna be hard to see China not getting all caught up in it for OW. 

 

Really hoping for $200M now. 

[fmpro]

AIW 25,35 mill by sunday midnight

13,5% daily increase

Edited April 29, 2018 by fmpro

[POTUS 2020]

14 hours ago, fmpro said:

AIW 25,35 mill by sunday midnight

13,5% daily increase

it was 22.3 at 1am last night

25.56 now +14.6%  66k shows

MN 11m+9%

That 1.1% can add up to millions down the road 

Edited April 30, 2018 by POTUS

[KP1025]

What kind of competition will Infinity War face in China? Maoyan says Deadpool 2 release is May 18, but I see no confirmation of that. Solo is on May 25, but that should not pose any threat at all.

[POTUS 2020]

IW should come close to a 15% increase again today

I projected out at 15% and combined patterns from the other 3 at th end to see what could possibly happen. I dont think its far fetched. 

Even though IW PS started up to a week earlier than the other 3, they are settling in at their low rate of increase at about the same time at 10/11 days out

FF8 XR was $1=Y6.9   The current rate is 6.32

IW could have a smaller OW multi but I threw in FF8's for the hell of it

 

I dont recall an SH movie getting a 9 rating on Maoyan.  Antman and DR Strange had good holds/runs with an 8.9. AoU, CA3 and WW had 8.6.  Spidey 8.1, BP 8

A 9 could make IW pop

 

PS totals are at 1am. The final day could be 2-3am when they stop rolling in.

	JttW2			WC					FF8						IW
PS 1am	OD	%gain		MN	%gain	PS	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain
Sa	12.7			9.2		8.8					2.5				9.0	14.0%	18.5	3.1	26.5%
Su	16.9	32.7%		11.0	19.6%	12.0	37.1%				5.4	2.9	116.0%		10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%
Mo	19.4	14.9%		13.0	18.2%	14.8	23.3%				8.3	2.9	53.7%		11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%
Tu	22.1	14.2%		14.9	14.6%	17.0	14.9%				11.4	3.1	37.3%		12.0	9.1%	29.3	3.7	14.6%
We	25.5	15.3%		16.0	7.4%	20.0	17.6%		5.0		14.5	3.1	27.2%		13.2	10.0%	33.4	4.1	14.0%
Th	29.1	14.1%		18.1	13.1%	23.0	15.0%		6.4	28.0%	19.5	5.0	34.5%		14.4	9.1%	38.3	4.9	14.7%
Fr	33.3	14.4%		19.6	8.3%	27.0	17.4%		8.0	25.0%	24.6	5.1	26.2%		15.8	9.7%	44.0	5.7	14.9%
Sa	38.4	15.3%		21.8	11.2%	31.5	16.7%		9.8	22.5%	33.0	8.4	34.1%		17.4	10.1%	50.5	6.5	14.8%
Su	44.0	14.6%		22.5	3.2%	35.9	14.0%		11.3	15.3%	39.6	6.6	20.0%		19.2	10.3%	57.9	7.4	14.7%
Mo	51.0	15.9%		23.4	4.0%	40.8	13.6%		13.6	20.4%	48.0	8.4	21.2%		21.1	9.9%	66.4	8.5	14.7%
Tu	57.0	11.8%		25.7	9.8%	44.8	9.8%		17.4	27.9%	63.0	15.0	31.3%		23.2	10.0%	76.1	9.7	14.6%
We	72.0	26.3%		27.1	5.4%	50.7	13.2%		22.0	26.4%	84.0	21.0	33.3%		25.5	9.9%	92.0	15.9	20.9%
Th	88.8	23.3%		30.0	10.7%	64.8	27.8%		27.0	22.7%	106.0	22.0	26.2%		28.0	9.8%	110.0	18.0	19.6%
Fr(OD)	140.0	57.7%		50.1	67.0%	96.0	48.1%		62.0	129.6%	165.0	59.0	55.7%		64.0	128.6%	170.0	60.0	54.5%
OD	356.0	154.3%				251.5	162.0%		62.0		417.0		152.7%		64.0		429.0		152.4%
Multi		2.54					2.62						2.52						2.52
	OD	OW		Total	OD $	OW $	Total $
JttW2	356	777		1656	52	113	240
WC	251	819		1472	36	125	225
FF8	417	1352		2671	60	196	387
IW	429	1390		2711	68	220	429

Edited April 30, 2018 by POTUS

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, POTUS said:

IW should come close to a 15% increase again today

I projected out at 15% and combined patterns from the other 3 at th end to see what could possibly happen. I dont think its far fetched. 

Even though IW PS started up to a week earlier than the other 3, they are settling in at their low rate of increase at about the same time at 10/11 days out

FF8 XR was $1=Y6.9   The current rate is 6.32

IW could have a smaller OW multi but I threw in FF8's for the hell of it

PS totals are at 1am. The final day could be 2-3am when they stop rolling in.

	JttW2			WC					FF8						IW
PS 1am	OD	%gain		MN	%gain	PS	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain
Sa	12.7			9.2		8.8					2.5				9.0	14.0%	18.5	3.1	26.5%
Su	16.9	32.7%		11.0	19.6%	12.0	37.1%				5.4	2.9	116.0%		10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%
Mo	19.4	14.9%		13.0	18.2%	14.8	23.3%				8.3	2.9	53.7%		11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%
Tu	22.1	14.2%		14.9	14.6%	17.0	14.9%				11.4	3.1	37.3%		12.0	9.1%	29.3	3.7	14.6%
We	25.5	15.3%		16.0	7.4%	20.0	17.6%		5.0		14.5	3.1	27.2%		13.2	10.0%	33.4	4.1	14.0%
Th	29.1	14.1%		18.1	13.1%	23.0	15.0%		6.4	28.0%	19.5	5.0	34.5%		14.4	9.1%	38.3	4.9	14.7%
Fr	33.3	14.4%		19.6	8.3%	27.0	17.4%		8.0	25.0%	24.6	5.1	26.2%		15.8	9.7%	44.0	5.7	14.9%
Sa	38.4	15.3%		21.8	11.2%	31.5	16.7%		9.8	22.5%	33.0	8.4	34.1%		17.4	10.1%	50.5	6.5	14.8%
Su	44.0	14.6%		22.5	3.2%	35.9	14.0%		11.3	15.3%	39.6	6.6	20.0%		19.2	10.3%	57.9	7.4	14.7%
Mo	51.0	15.9%		23.4	4.0%	40.8	13.6%		13.6	20.4%	48.0	8.4	21.2%		21.1	9.9%	66.4	8.5	14.7%
Tu	57.0	11.8%		25.7	9.8%	44.8	9.8%		17.4	27.9%	63.0	15.0	31.3%		23.2	10.0%	76.1	9.7	14.6%
We	72.0	26.3%		27.1	5.4%	50.7	13.2%		22.0	26.4%	84.0	21.0	33.3%		25.5	9.9%	92.0	15.9	20.9%
Th	88.8	23.3%		30.0	10.7%	64.8	27.8%		27.0	22.7%	106.0	22.0	26.2%		28.0	9.8%	110.0	18.0	19.6%
Fr(OD)	140.0	57.7%		50.1	67.0%	96.0	48.1%		62.0	129.6%	165.0	59.0	55.7%		64.0	128.6%	170.0	60.0	54.5%
OD	356.0	154.3%				251.5	162.0%		62.0		417.0		152.7%		64.0		429.0		152.4%
Multi		2.54					2.62						2.52						2.52
	OD	OW		Total	OD $	OW $	Total $
JttW2	356	777		1656	52	113	240
WC	251	819		1472	36	125	225
FF8	417	1352		2671	60	196	387
IW	429	1390		2711	68	220	429

 

The shocking thing is that this feels like a genuinely modest prediction based on those increases

 

I'm kinda concerned that we may see a new low for presales multi, especially OD, since I imagine this may have an even bigger up front demand than FF8

[fabiopazzo2]

So the hype in China is really really big if IW will open over 200M 

[fabiopazzo2]

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by fabiopazzo2

[Olive]

IMAX tickets are selling like crazy fast, even Friday morning showtimes are 80%+ full around me.

I will watch it in Dolby 3D at midnight(40% full now), and 2nd view on Sat morning IMAX show(75% full)

Edited April 30, 2018 by Proxima Olive

[ZeeSoh]

On 4/29/2018 at 11:31 PM, POTUS said:

it was 22.3 at 1am last night

25.56 now +14.6%  66k shows

MN 11m+9%

That 1.1% can add up to millions down the road 

Infinity War (10 days out)

 

Midnight - 11.87m

OD - 29.05 (69700 screens)

Sat - 18.38m

Sun - 8.8

 

I couldnt get the 1 am update so got it as soon as I could. Increased about 13.7% today. It has already exceeded the total presale figure of Thor 3

[GraceRandolph]

So 400M in China is basically dead?   

[The Mad Titan]

5 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

So 400M in China is basically dead?   

Uh? No? It’s very much alive. 

[GraceRandolph]

2 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

Uh? No? It’s very much alive. 

Ok good.  The road to 2B ww continues then .

[pepsa]

30 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Ok good.  The road to 2B ww continues then .

 

It's won't need 400m from china for it to hit 2B. 300m will do the job.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

 

It's won't need 400m from china for it to hit 2B. 300m will do the job.

We haven't seen the legs yet! Maybe it won't need China at all...

 

[GraceRandolph]

2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

 

It's won't need 400m from china for it to hit 2B. 300m will do the job.

I know. But 400 million basically guarantees it 100%. 

[pepsa]

Just now, GraceRandolph said:

I know. But 400 million basically guarantees it 100%. 

 

You need that for avatar right?