Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Sam]

4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

$180M / $275M

$180.69M / $275.69M

 

Fixed that a bit for you.

 

Right, @aabattery?

[bangbingchan]

13 hours ago, UserHN said:

According to earlier posts, IW has fantastic WoM in HK, SK, and Taiwan. What will prevent it from having a 9.0+ in China?

I mean Douban.RP1 once was 9.2 on Douban.It's  this year Coco and Zootopia.it's a sleep hit.AiW is 8.5 on Douban.good But not excellent.Nothing compare with RP1 WoM.Maybe AiW will be 9.0 on Maoyan.8.0+ on Douban.GotG is similar score last year.For GA,CBM film WoM is very similar.

PS：China is very unique.Unless it's wide release,everything is unpredictable.HK SK Taiwan may have similar taste.But China may have its own taste 

Edited April 26, 2018 by bangbingchan

[ZeeSoh]

On 4/25/2018 at 9:35 PM, ZeeSoh said:

 

Infinity War (15 days out)

 

Midnight - 5.62m

OD PS - 8.52m (+85.6%) (44374 screens)

Sat - 4.27m

Sun - 2.35m

 

A huge nearly 86% jump today thanks to about 16k (+60%) screens being added today from new theatre chains. Another thing to note is that the thursday preview numbers are also huge. 

 

For comparision it is ahead of where BP was 5 days out and where Thor 3 was 2 days out!

 

Infinity War (14 days out)

 

Midnight - 7.81m

OD PS - 14.6m (+71.4%) (54640 screens)

Sat - 8.78m

Sun - 5.03m

 

Another great increase today. About 10k screens were added today which helped some of the rise. 

 

Presales are higher than BP when it was 3 days out and higher than Thor 3/GotG2/FB just a day out!

[Stewart]

10 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Infinity War (14 days out)

 

Midnight - 7.81m

OD PS - 14.6m (+71.4%) (54640 screens)

Sat - 8.78m

Sun - 5.03m

 

Another great increase today. About 10k screens were added today which helped some of the rise. 

 

Presales are higher than BP when it was 3 days out and higher than Thor 3/GotG2/FB just a day out!

Scary thought, 20% increases from now, which seems like a likely thing, gets it to 187M OD presales, which would be likely a 500M+ OD ($79m). I really want to lower that 20%, but lower doesn't seem realistic! 

 

Even if it does 15% daily, then 30% penultimate and 50% final gives 152M final. Still a massive number. 

 

Edit: Just saw MH2 was doing 11% ish daily for the most part with slightly larger at the end. So:

 

Minimum Presales OD: 63M (11% all the way)

11% for 7 days, 15% for 5 then 30% then 50% gives 119M (realistic)

if it ramps up more towards the end like 20% for 5, then 50% then 90% gives 215M OD (high end)

 

Depends when presales slow down, because atm they're still accelerating like fire

Edited April 26, 2018 by feasby007

[POTUS 2020]

12 hours ago, feasby007 said:

Scary thought, 20% increases from now, which seems like a likely thing, gets it to 187M OD presales, which would be likely a 500M+ OD ($79m). I really want to lower that 20%, but lower doesn't seem realistic! 

 

Even if it does 15% daily, then 30% penultimate and 50% final gives 152M final. Still a massive number. 

 

Edit: Just saw MH2 was doing 11% ish daily for the most part with slightly larger at the end. So:

 

Minimum Presales OD: 63M (11% all the way)

11% for 7 days, 15% for 5 then 30% then 50% gives 119M (realistic)

if it ramps up more towards the end like 20% for 5, then 50% then 90% gives 215M OD (high end)

 

Depends when presales slow down, because atm they're still accelerating like fire

It looks like it'll hit critical mass. I doubt it will be more saturated than FF8. Its going to come down to shows.  The larger PS get, the smaller the multi.

 

FF8 165mPS, 417mOD/165k shows =2527 yuan per show=72 people(most theaters are 110 capacity i think)Half full in the daytime, sellouts during primetime.

That's about the max for a non summer/holiday Friday OD.

FF8 Saturday was 487m/187k shows=2604 yuan per show

 

IW will need 200k shows to do 500m, with a 2:36 runtime (FF8 2:16)  I doubt that many shows are possible.

So now, to predict OD/OW, we need to to predict the show count.

@Proxima Olive @firedeep @bangbingchan @Gavin Feng any thoughts on show count. Can they list 7 shows per day with that runtime? How do listings look so far?

Edited April 27, 2018 by POTUS

[fmpro]

@POTUS i have seen the movie twice..

The run time is more like 2 hours 20 min

[fmpro]

Presales slowed down today no doubt. 

16,31 mill by 2,30pm

[aabattery]

Runtime is 2:29, not 2:36. Not sure how much of a difference 7 minutes makes but anywho.

[POTUS 2020]

46 minutes ago, fmpro said:

@POTUS i have seen the movie twice..

The run time is more like 2 hours 20 min

38 minutes ago, aabattery said:

Runtime is 2:29, not 2:36. Not sure how much of a difference 7 minutes makes but anywho.

7 minute over 7 shows.  49m could be the difference between squeezing in 7 or 6 show in a day

 

 

RT says 2:36. IMDB 2:29 IDK

its still 13m more than FF8.  That adds 91m on 7 shows

 

 

Edited April 27, 2018 by POTUS

[fmpro]

1 minute ago, POTUS said:

RT says 2:36. IMDB 2:29 IDK

RT is wrong. Im going again for the 3rd later tonight. I will try to time it.

[TalismanRing]

2:36 was the special fan event.  There was reportedly a short attached.

 

2:29 is the official time including credits.

[aabattery]

7 minutes ago, POTUS said:

 

RT says 2:36. IMDB 2:29 IDK

 

7 minute over 7 shows.  49m could be the difference between squeezing in 7 or 6 show in a day

 

 

 

http://www.bbfc.co.uk/releases/avengers-infinity-war-2018

 

BBFC has it at 149 minutes, and I am inclined to trust them over Rotten Tomatoes. My local cinema also has it at 149 minutes.

[Gavin Feng]

150 mins according to Chinese censorship.

[fmpro]

1 min extra Wong for the Chinese people 

[POTUS 2020]

17 hours ago, feasby007 said:

Scary thought, 20% increases from now, which seems like a likely thing, gets it to 187M OD presales, which would be likely a 500M+ OD ($79m). I really want to lower that 20%, but lower doesn't seem realistic! 

 

Even if it does 15% daily, then 30% penultimate and 50% final gives 152M final. Still a massive number. 

 

Edit: Just saw MH2 was doing 11% ish daily for the most part with slightly larger at the end. So:

 

Minimum Presales OD: 63M (11% all the way)

11% for 7 days, 15% for 5 then 30% then 50% gives 119M (realistic)

if it ramps up more towards the end like 20% for 5, then 50% then 90% gives 215M OD (high end)

 

Depends when presales slow down, because atm they're still accelerating like fire

Slowing down to +25% today

could be 15% tomorrow then run as highlighted above which now takes it above 160m+

Thats my call.

$190m-210m OW. Assuming show count is 160-170k. 

 

Edit. Forgot about XR. I think it will close to FF8 in yuan for OW but it has a better XR at $1=Y6.34

FF8 would have opened to $213m with todays XR

I got to go with $205-225m

Edited April 27, 2018 by POTUS

[fmpro]

4 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Slowing down to +25% today

could be 15% tomorrow then run as highlighted above which now takes it above 160m+

Thats my call.

$190m-210m OW. Assuming show count is 160-170k. 

Safe zone atp is 160-200 mill IMO. 

Im 90% sure it will fall in that area

 

Multiplier 1,5-2 so total range is 240-400 mill$

[POTUS 2020]

8 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Safe zone atp is 160-200 mill IMO. 

Im 90% sure it will fall in that area

 

Multiplier 1,5-2 so total range is 240-400 mill$

Are you basing that on FF8's performance? you need add 8% for XR

[fmpro]

3 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Are you basing that on FF8's performance? you need add 8% for XR

I know. But like you mentioned earlier that there could be a little less showtimes. So it could even out

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

5 minutes ago, fmpro said:

I know. But like you mentioned earlier that there could be a little less showtimes. So it could even out

 

 

I was thinking the addition of 8000 screens since FF8 could add showtimes back in.

so many variables....

[ZeeSoh]

20 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Infinity War (14 days out)

 

Midnight - 7.81m

OD PS - 14.6m (+71.4%) (54640 screens)

Sat - 8.78m

Sun - 5.03m

 

Another great increase today. About 10k screens were added today which helped some of the rise. 

 

Presales are higher than BP when it was 3 days out and higher than Thor 3/GotG2/FB just a day out!

 

Infinity War (13 days out)

 

Midnight - 8.96m

OD PS - 18.47 (+26.5%) (59234 screens)

Sat - 11.5m

Sun - 6.39m

 

A normal jump today after the crazy increases last 2-3 days. Less than 5k screens added today as well. We will see similar small increases for a few days till the week of release unless a lot of screens and showtimes are added on of these days. 

Edited April 27, 2018 by ZeeSoh