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kayumanggi

Wednesday Numbers: 1.25 M BVS: DOJ

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27 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It starts losing it's PLF screens to JB's previews so I think the drop will be harder on Thur and the Friday jump smaller

 

Yes. I think my 120-125% Fri bump leading to a 58.5% weekend drop is a bit optimistic. A 105-110% Fri bump leading to a 60-62% weekend drop won't surprise me. I think if the Thu drop is very big, it makes it easier to post a good Friday % (even if the absolute number is shitty).

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1 minute ago, Heat Vision said:

 

Dory is taking the crown and it won't even come close

 

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

That looks like the only accurate prediction on that list.

 

It didn't even mention Deadpool or Zootopia.

Yeah I meant specifically for BvS and Civil War maybe but it said Deadpool was $775 million. It's still was a good call that far out given all the hype leading up

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^^^^

Without a published budget is the assumption that MBFGW2 is doing ok? The first was a lightning in the bottle event with this sequel coming way too late.

However, there are no big names and the first was done for $5m. I can't imagine even with some pay bumps they spent more than $15-20m on this.

 

My wife wanted to see it so we went. It was cute and fun fare. A total wait for DVD film but it was fun!

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1 (1) The Boss Universal $1,401,550 -40% 3,480 $403   $28,945,860 6
2 (2) Batman v Superman: Dawn of … Warner Bros. $1,245,754 -33% 4,102 $304   $301,201,288 20
- (4) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 Universal $459,225 -33% 3,027 $152   $48,387,885 20
- (5) Hardcore Henry STX Entertainment $328,422 -39% 3,015 $109   $6,402,831 6
- (6) Miracles from Heaven Sony Pictures $302,341 -34% 2,783 $109   $54,770,531 29
- (10) 10 Cloverfield Lane Paramount Pictures $203,905 -27% 1,886 $108   $68,582,888 34
- (12) Deadpool 20th Century Fox $170,164 -18% 1,435 $119   $358,966,434 62
- (13) Meet the Blacks Freestyle Releasing $125,529 -34% 1,007 $125   $7,801,913 13

 

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1 hour ago, Chinoiserie said:

 

Neither Zootopia nor Moana here, when people stop underestimating Disney Animation? 

To be fair, the columnist made the prediction on New Year's eve. He probably hadn't seen Zootopia's final trailer yet.

And even I don't know what to make of Moana.

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1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

MOS lost 1226 theaters on its 4th weekend. It made 11.4 M though.

 

 

MOS had an 11.4m weekend which took it to ~271m. Then added 20m more in the rest of the run. (MOS fell 59%, 61% and 59% in weekend 5,6 and 7. BVS won't fall this bad for the 3 weekends after this one/4th one, but MOS did have summer weekdays so it balances out)

BVS could have a 9-10m weekend which along with ~1.1m on Thu will take it to ~312m.

So the same 20m more after that will give it ~332m. That is the max it could do imo.

325-330m more likely.

Edited by a2knet
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27 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

where's it going to end up? around 365?

 

Yeah, it will be right at 360 after this weekend (rolls 359 today) so maybe 363-365 tops it needs 371m to claim highest R rated (unadjusted of course)

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6 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

 

MOS had an 11.4m weekend which took it to ~271m. Then added 20m more in the rest of the run. (MOS fell 59%, 61% and 59% in weekend 5,6 and 7. BVS won't fall this bad for the 3 weekends after this one/4th one, but MOS did have summer weekdays so it balances out)

BVS could have a 9-10m weekend which along with ~1.1m on Thu will take it to ~312m.

So the same 20m more after that will give it ~332m. That is the max it could do imo.

325-330m more likely.

 

Yeah, I would like to see it end up higher but I agree with this analysis - problem being that weekend 7 will take whatever life it has left (CW weekend) and then summer is here and theater screens will be at a premium - it might never have a drop of less than -50% which would be amazing for a comic book flick.

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