THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS | 507.1 M overseas | 875.5 M worldwide

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

Thanks Jason. Would love to know more about you calculation methods. When you have time, could you do a specific estimate for Pets?

I liked what you did with Dory and that was pretty reliable:)

I'll give it a shot later today or tomorrow once they've updated the individual totals for current markets, that will make it a little easier. For Dory I used estimates from other international threads where available and otherwise used Nemo/TS3/IO as references for how it might do. What reference points did you use for the remaining markets?

[MinaTakla]

17 minutes ago, Jason said:

I'll give it a shot later today or tomorrow once they've updated the individual totals for current markets, that will make it a little easier. For Dory I used estimates from other international threads where available and otherwise used Nemo/TS3/IO as references for how it might do. What reference points did you use for the remaining markets?

Ok I'll post the estimates here when it's available on the-numbers.com. I think it will be up later today with Monday's domestic actuals.

For Pets, I didn't know what to use as an estimate, that was the toughest parts. For Europe for example, it's above Zoo in several markets except France and so is the case in Latin America where it's also above Zoo. In Asia, it is lower because of China (and Japan won't come close to 70m unless we get a surprise). So I based my estimates for the 48 markets on a mix between a worst case scenario (lower than Zoo) and a 50% off what Minions did. So that makes me unsure about my results.

[Purple Minion]

#SecretLifeOfPets has now crossed $300M domestic, $100M intl & $400M global. 7th hit of 2016 to break $300M dom - same # as all of 2015.

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) 2 August 2016

Edited August 2, 2016 by Purple Minion

[Rthmessiah]

20 hours ago, Jason said:

 

I haven't looked over the numbers in detail and don't have better specific estimates to offer. But in general using conservative estimates for 48 markets will result in a final estimate that is far more unlikely than the individual estimates used to calculate the total. Best practice from a mathematical standpoint is to use median estimates.

 

I think it's reasonable to imagine that on average Pets could outperform your estimates (outside of current markets and the 4 latin american openers from last weekend) by ~25%. That would lead to a median OS estimate of $430M.

Pretty good assessment

[MinaTakla]

@Jason - here's the latest chart, do your thing:) But just to note, around 10 markets below aren't updated here but I have their updated numbers from mojo, DHD and/or other threads/sources so you can use these figures instead: Argentina is now at 9m, Israel is now at 3.3m, Norway is at 2.7m, HK around 4.1-4.2, Colombia almost 3m, South Korea opens today so the 23k USD is a mistake. Vietnam should be around 3-3.5m and Taiwan is around 5.5m by now. Germany was 7.2m, Also France was 5.9m not 5.4 opening weekend. The rest looks almost right.

Edit: And Chile should be close to 3.5m

 

Territory	Release Date	Opening Weekend	Opening Weekend Theaters	Maximum Theaters	Theatrical Engagements	Total Box Office	Report Date
Argentina	7/21/2016	$3,894,124	195	195	195	$8,468,357	7/27/2016
Austria	7/29/2016	$813,000	81	81	81	$813,000	8/1/2016
Chile	7/21/2016	$1,771,763	60	60	60	$1,923,586	7/27/2016
China	8/2/2016	$0	0	0	0	$0
Colombia	7/21/2016	$1,533,428	179	179	179	$1,533,428	7/27/2016
Ecuador	7/22/2016	$445,000	0	0	0	$445,000	7/25/2016
France	7/27/2016	$5,400,000	645	645	645	$5,400,000	8/1/2016
Germany	7/29/2016	$7,100,000	677	677	677	$7,100,000	8/1/2016
Hong Kong	7/1/2016	$1,800,000	0	45	107	$4,021,712	7/27/2016
India	7/8/2016	$488,000	0	0	0	$488,000	7/22/2016
Ireland	6/24/2016	$5,300,000	0	0	0	$5,300,000	6/27/2016
Israel	7/1/2016	$547,000	0	39	107	$2,829,536	7/27/2016
Mexico	7/29/2016	$7,487,828	723	723	723	$7,487,828	8/2/2016
Norway	6/24/2016	$853,000	108	108	299	$2,448,155	7/27/2016
Panama	7/29/2016	$1,000,000	200	200	200	$1,000,000	8/1/2016
Paraguay	7/22/2016	$92,000	0	0	0	$92,000	7/25/2016
South Korea	7/21/2016	$0	0	0	0	$28,363	8/2/2016
Switzerland	7/29/2016	$909,000	109	109	109	$909,000	8/1/2016
Taiwan	7/1/2016	$1,900,000	0	144	385	$4,979,216	7/27/2016
Trinidad	7/8/2016	$130,000	0	0	0	$130,000	7/10/2016
United Kingdom	6/24/2016	$13,066,065	592	612	2979	$41,000,000	8/1/2016
Uruguay	7/28/2016	$89,000	20	20	20	$89,000	8/1/2016
Vietnam	7/1/2016	$756,000	0	0	0	$756,000	7/4/2016
Rest of World						$5,757,819
International Total						$99,000,000	8/2/2016

Edited August 3, 2016 by MinaTakla

[MinaTakla]

actually @Jason- here is the up to date chart you can use, I've updated it manually below:

All numbers below are as of 31 July. My estimate is that these current markets will end up around 200m total. 

 

Territory	Release Date	Opening Weekend	Opening Weekend Theaters	Maximum Theaters	Theatrical Engagements	Total Box Office	Report Date
Argentina	7/21/2016	$3,894,124	195	195	195	$9,000,000
Austria	7/29/2016	$813,000	81	81	81	$813,000
Chile	7/21/2016	$1,771,763	60	60	60	$3,500,000 approx
Colombia	7/21/2016	$1,533,428	179	179	179	$3,000,000 approx
Ecuador	7/22/2016	$445,000	0	0	0	$1,000,000 approx
France	7/27/2016	$5,400,000	645	645	645	$5,900,000
Germany	7/29/2016	$7,100,000	677	677	677	$7,200,000
Hong Kong	7/1/2016	$1,800,000	0	45	107	$4,120,71  approx
India	7/8/2016	$488,000	0	0	0	$1,000,000 end of run
Israel	7/1/2016	$547,000	0	39	107	$3,300,000
Mexico	7/29/2016	$7,487,828	723	723	723	$7,487,828
Norway	6/24/2016	$853,000	108	108	299	$2,650,000
Panama	7/29/2016	$1,000,000	200	200	200	$1,000,000	8/1/2016
Paraguay	7/22/2016	$92,000	0	0	0	$200,000
Switzerland	7/29/2016	$909,000	109	109	109	$909,000	8/1/2016
Taiwan	7/1/2016	$1,900,000	0	144	385	$5,500,216	approx
Trinidad	7/8/2016	$130,000	0	0	0	$130,000	7/10/2016
United Kingdom	6/24/2016	$13,066,065	592	612	2979	$41,000,000	8/1/2016
Uruguay	7/28/2016	$89,000	20	20	20	$89,000	8/1/2016
Vietnam	7/1/2016	$756,000	0	0	0	3,000,000 approx
International Total						$99,500,000	as of July 31

 

Edited August 3, 2016 by MinaTakla

[Jason]

17 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

actually @Jason- here is the up to date chart you can use, I've updated it manually below:

All numbers below are as of 31 July. My estimate is that these current markets will end up around 200m total. 

Thanks, I'll hit it up later today. 

[MinaTakla]

Fresh new chart by Mojo - they posted it a few hours ago

Note: South Korea opened today so the 23K seems to be a preview or something.

Country (click to view weekend breakdown) Dist. Release Date Opening Wknd % of Total Total Gross / As Of FOREIGN TOTAL - 6/23/16 $14,197,447 13.7% $103,547,568 8/1/16 Argentina UPI 7/21/16 $3,837,781 43.8% $8,770,706 7/31/16 Austria UPI 7/29/16 $750,000 100% $750,000 7/31/16 Chile UPI 7/21/16 $1,720,309 54.8% $3,141,911 7/31/16 Colombia UPI 7/21/16 $1,533,428 58.1% $2,639,997 7/31/16 Ecuador UPI 7/22/16 $434,007 47.9% $907,000 7/31/16 France UPI 7/27/16 $5,854,000 100% $5,854,000 7/31/16 Germany UPI 7/28/16 $7,110,257 100% $7,110,257 7/31/16 Hong Kong UPI 6/30/16 $1,868,237 45.6% $4,098,466 7/31/16 India UPI 7/8/16 $493,244 55.7% $885,597 7/31/16 Israel UPI 6/30/16 $581,319 17.6% $3,294,466 7/31/16 Lithuania NCG 8/5/16 - - $5,130 7/31/16 Mexico UPI 7/29/16 $7,594,000 101.3% $7,496,779 7/31/16 Norway UPI 6/24/16 $778,447 29.7% $2,624,082 7/31/16 Pakistan UPI 7/8/16 - - $64,926 7/31/16 South Korea UPI 8/3/16 - - $23,224 7/31/16 Switzerland UPI 7/27/16 $909,000 100% $909,000 7/31/16 Taiwan UPI 7/1/16 $2,006,110 38.9% $5,156,174 7/31/16 Thailand UIP 7/28/16 $158,813 100% $158,813 7/31/16 United Kingdom UPI 6/24/16 $13,419,000 32.7% $41,056,564 7/31/16 Uruguay UPI 7/28/16 $130,511 100% $130,511 7/31/16 Vietnam UPI 7/1/16 $806,141 30.8% $2,614,481 7/31/16

Edited August 3, 2016 by MinaTakla

[Jason]

14 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

My estimate is that these current markets will end up around 200m total. 

 

Preliminary results - agree with your $200M from current markets. About $100M from markets that opened July 24 or earlier, and another $100M from the markets that opened up this past weekend. Working on remaining markets now.

[MinaTakla]

12 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Preliminary results - agree with your $200M from current markets. About $100M from markets that opened July 24 or earlier, and another $100M from the markets that opened up this past weekend. Working on remaining markets now.

Can't wait to see your detailed results!

Gonna be reading them cloesly:)

PS: South Korea opened today with a 184,000 admissions OD.

Edited August 3, 2016 by MinaTakla

[Olive]

On 2016/7/31 at 7:11 PM, MinaTakla said:

Ok thanks Olive. I'll update my projections accordingly tonight.

 

Based on OD performance, it will make at least $15M in SK.

[Jason]

@MinaTakla Alright, so the markets opened up to the weekend up July 22-24 ("Current Markets") should have a total of close to $100M (individual estimates add up to $99M). Most of those markets have been open for a while, the main source of uncertainty is Argentina, so overall we can pretty confident of that figure. Markets that opened up this past weekend should also be pretty close to $100M (individual estimates add up to $97M), based on opening weekend and the general legginess of those markets for recent animated films. That estimate is probably correct to within $10M, and is unlikely to be off by more than $20M (assuming that there isn't any reason why Pets should be exceptional).

The tricky part is the remaining markets. Unlike Finding Dory, not many of the remaining markets are likely to be large (largest is probably China), there are more of them, and the only specific estimates I can find at the moment are for China and South Korea. (thanks @Olive) So I'm going to use the approach I did for the August and September Dory markets and consider them in aggregate.

 

The following table groups the markets by opening date, and shows your original estimates from earlier, a raw unrounded calculation for those markets combined, my (only slightly rounded) estimate, and the adjusted ER totals of Despicable Me 2, Minions, Inside Out, and Zootopia.

Quote

Market Grouping	MinaTakla	Calculation	My Estimate	DM2	Minions	IO	Zootopia
Current markets (up to July 17)	$66M	$66,936,760	$67M	$68,645,839	$98,636,431	$75,040,607	$52,724,922
Current markets (up to July 24)	$97.5M	$97,514,569	$98M	$87,837,821	$141,908,650	$104,156,259	$73,634,667
Opening markets (July 31)	$84.5M	$97,304,254	$97M	$104,015,827	$154,971,837	$92,524,354	$86,929,070
Remaining markets	$181M	n/a	$250M	$247,551,970	$386,608,783	$267,850,188	$482,475,571
Remaining markets - China + SK	$151M	n/a	$190M	$193,915,889	$307,901,554	$218,542,971	$223,996,795

 

Comparing the estimated total for the three market groupings where an estimate can be made with some degree of certainty, Despicable Me 2 and Inside Out have a pretty similar total in aggregate, even though on a country-by-country basis there is wide variation. Pets is consistently outperforming Zootopia in aggregate so far. On that basis, I'm predicting about $250M for all remaining markets. Taking into consideration Olive's estimates of $50M for China and $15M for SK, a remaining total of about $190M is in line with DM2's performance in those markets.

 

Total OS estimate for Pets is then 100+100+250 = $450M.

I would need to examine a larger set of films to be more sure of the estimate of $250M and how wide of a range to expect. That being said, that estimate doesn't rely on Pets getting a large amount anywhere aside from China, I can't imagine Pets underperforming by more than $50M, and probably not by more than $25M. Without breaking out unexpectedly in China or Japan though (à la Zootopia or Frozen) I also wouldn't expect Pets to outperform that estimate by too much.

 

With about half the OS gross required to hit $400M coming from markets yet to open, I would hesitate to call Pets "locked" for $400M, but I think it's very unlikely for it to miss.

 

Raw data hidden below for anyone who is interested (comments/suggestions welcome if you are!):

Spoiler

All territories with individual estimates and calculations where applicable, as well as adjusted ER gross of DM2, Minions, IO, and Zootopia:

Quote

Country	MinaTakla	Calculation	Estimate	DM2	Minions	IO	Zootopia
Australia	$17	n/a	n/a	$27,372,308	$22,846,430	$24,814,887	$20,780,070
Belgium	$2.5	n/a	n/a	$4,190,028	$8,795,623	$4,021,327	$4,329,861
Bolivia	$0.5	n/a	n/a	$988,703	$1,409,394	$1,004,441	$902,997
Brazil	$17	n/a	n/a	$25,395,422	$35,573,316	$15,532,303	$11,512,194
Bulgaria	$1	n/a	n/a	$576,382	$1,223,909	$596,444	$975,394
China	$25	n/a	$50M (Olive)	$47,942,914	$63,585,707	$14,588,120	$227,281,412
Czech Republic	$2	n/a	n/a	$1,457,695	$4,271,995	$1,407,950	$1,367,299
Denmark	$2.5	n/a	n/a	$2,707,792	$5,330,737	$5,860,089	$3,889,010
Estonia	$0.5	n/a	n/a	n/a	$758,785	$347,328	$393,779
Finland	$2.5	n/a	n/a	$2,592,624	$4,514,075	$2,894,021	$1,598,485
Greece	$1.5	n/a	n/a	$1,474,578	$2,106,791	$2,118,826	$911,553
Hungary	$1.5	n/a	n/a	$1,423,816	$3,481,759	$1,199,245	$1,413,203
Iceland	$0.5	n/a	n/a	$290,262	$460,816	$275,577	$316,034
Indonesia	$2	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Italy	$14	n/a	n/a	$17,439,739	$26,160,098	$26,476,577	$12,269,242
Japan	$17	n/a	n/a	$22,963,343	$49,658,143	$36,821,518	$71,785,941
Latvia	-	n/a	n/a	n/a	$827,744	$277,681	n/a
Lebanon	-	n/a	n/a	$804,296	$1,044,031	$369,947	$167,000
Lithuania	-	n/a	n/a	$513,051	$1,215,222	$366,459	$369,865
Malaysia	$2	n/a	n/a	$3,927,209	$4,601,977	$2,010,990	$2,969,081
MENA region	$2.5	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Mongolia	$0.5	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Netherlands	$4	n/a	n/a	$8,619,942	$14,266,392	$5,592,711	$5,601,988
New Zealand	$3	n/a	n/a	$4,620,310	$4,225,645	$3,677,237	$2,687,802
Panama	$3	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Peru	$2	n/a	n/a	$3,436,357	$5,583,283	$3,672,405	$4,221,783
Philippines	$2.5	n/a	n/a	$5,100,125	$6,230,279	$3,815,799	$996,429
Portugal	$2.5	n/a	n/a	$1,369,141	$5,235,219	$2,465,421	$2,005,537
Romania	$1	n/a	n/a	n/a	$2,077,430	$747,407	$1,231,794
Russia - CIS	$14	n/a	n/a	$17,887,660	$25,481,960	$16,930,570	$33,082,614
Singapore	$2.5	n/a	n/a	$5,280,424	$5,175,702	$4,030,341	$4,319,861
Slovenia	$1.5	n/a	n/a	$353,523	$148,494	$135,669	$185,189
South Korea	$5	n/a	$15M (Olive)	$5,693,167	$15,121,522	$34,719,098	$31,197,365
Spain	$12	n/a	n/a	$14,180,739	$26,625,570	$23,447,791	$14,619,139
Sweden	$3	n/a	n/a	$4,847,278	$7,317,172	$5,279,388	$6,668,763
Switzerland	$2.5	n/a	n/a	n/a	$2,063,247	$1,076,950	$4,927,202
Turkey	$2	n/a	n/a	$2,826,284	$3,595,055	$1,471,967	$1,315,413
Ukraine	$3	n/a	n/a	$666,982	$1,735,997	$880,057	$2,238,466
United Arab Emirates	$2.5	n/a	n/a	$3,091,366	$4,628,667	$2,094,962	$2,060,043
Venezuela	$3	n/a	n/a	$6,889,324	$17,170,902	$16,164,521	$1,034,752
Slovakia	(w. Slovenia)	n/a	n/a	$629,186	$2,059,696	$664,163	$849,011
Mexico	$27	$24,939,245	$25	$33,512,276	$36,965,457	$27,998,591	$15,666,976
Germany	$35	$40,057,786	$40	$30,956,919	$62,648,924	$30,858,110	$32,874,508
France	$20	$26,488,688	$26	$33,022,971	$43,611,461	$27,900,668	$30,744,749
Austria	$2.5	$4,273,504	$4	$3,636,934	$6,995,486	$3,156,203	$3,617,863
Thailand	-	$489,408	$0.5	$2,168,160	$3,214,270	$1,683,042	$3,530,435
Uruguay	-	$805,623	$1	$718,568	$1,536,239	$927,740	$494,540
Pakistan	-	$250,000	$0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Argentina	$20	$20,280,864	$20	$8,342,220	$22,027,596	$12,033,143	$8,558,035
Chile	$6.5	$4,936,603	$5.5	$4,150,640	$9,945,014	$7,786,340	$4,341,007
Colombia	$4	$3,872,897	$4.5	$5,073,582	$7,892,349	$6,485,277	$5,515,743
Ecuador	$1	$1,487,444	$1.5	$1,625,541	$3,407,260	$2,810,893	$2,494,960
India	CM-$66M	$920,644	$1	$814,289	$2,469,651	$1,397,115	$1,667,974
Israel	CM-$66M	$4,563,214	$4.5	$2,712,371	$5,480,535	$5,003,116	$1,615,000
Taiwan	CM-$66M	$5,335,626	$5.5	n/a	$9,871,677	$4,788,345	$8,849,025
Hong Kong	CM-$66M	$4,134,542	$4	$4,201,524	$10,760,235	$8,697,990	$7,043,512
Vietnam	CM-$66M	$2,742,373	$2.5	n/a	$3,994,399	$1,095,905	n/a
United Kingdom	CM-$66M	$46,203,586	$46	$58,011,278	$61,143,180	$50,894,368	$31,091,437
Norway	CM-$66M	$3,036,776	$3	$2,906,377	$4,916,755	$3,163,769	$2,457,974

 

The estimates for films in markets opening before the 24th were "calculated" by determining the weekly gross from the 24th to the 31st and then approximating the remaining gross using the weekend drop (if less than 30%, 30% drop was used - somewhat arbitrary):

Quote

Country	Week #	24-Jul	31-Jul	Increase	WoW	Proj. Total	Estimate
Argentina	2	$3,837,781	$8,770,706	$4,932,925	-0.266	$20,280,864	$20
Chile	2	$1,720,309	$3,141,911	$1,421,602	-0.442	$4,936,603	$5.5
Colombia	2	$1,533,428	$2,639,997	$1,106,569	-0.473	$3,872,897	$4.5
Ecuador	2	$434,007	$907,000	$472,993	-0.449	$1,487,444	$1.5
India	4	$837,000	$885,597	$48,597	-0.581	$920,644	$1
Israel	5	$2,750,717	$3,294,466	$543,749	-0.155	$4,563,214	$4.5
Taiwan	5	$4,957,832	$5,156,174	$198,342	-0.525	$5,335,626	$5.5
Hong Kong	5	$4,002,878	$4,098,466	$95,588	-0.726	$4,134,542	$4
Vietnam	5	$2,529,220	$2,614,481	$85,261	-0.4	$2,742,373	$2.5
United Kingdom	6	$37,738,089	$41,056,564	$3,318,475	-0.392	$46,203,586	$46
Norway	6	$2,433,899	$2,614,762	$180,863	1.393	$3,036,776	$3

 

The estimates for films in markets opening from the 31st were "calculated" by using the average OW% from DM2, Minions, IO, and Zootopia (Pakistan was pure guesstimate):

Quote

Country	OW	DM2	Minions	IO	Zootopia	Average	stdev	Total
Mexico	$7,594,000	31.2%	36.1%	27.7%	26.8%	30.5%	4.2%	$24,939,245
Germany	$7,110,257	15.8%	15.5%	20.3%	19.4%	17.8%	2.5%	$40,057,786
France	$5,854,000	17.1%	26.1%	19.7%	25.5%	22.1%	4.4%	$26,488,688
Austria	$750,000	17.2%	14.2%	20.2%	18.6%	17.6%	2.5%	$4,273,504
Thailand	$158,813	29.3%	54.9%	27.0%	18.6%	32.5%	15.7%	$489,408
Uruguay	$130,511	26.9%	10.8%	13.0%	14.1%	16.2%	7.3%	$805,623
Pakistan	$64,926	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	$250,000

 

 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2016 by Jason

[MinaTakla]

6 minutes ago, Jason said:

@MinaTakla Alright, so the markets opened up to the weekend up July 22-24 ("Current Markets") should have a total of close to $100M (individual estimates add up to $99M). Most of those markets have been open for a while, the main source of uncertainty is Argentina, so overall we can pretty confident of that figure. Markets that opened up this past weekend should also be pretty close to $100M (individual estimates add up to $97M), based on opening weekend and the general legginess of those markets for recent animated films. That estimate is probably correct to within $10M, and is unlikely to be off by more than $20M (assuming that there isn't any reason why Pets should be exceptional).

The tricky part is the remaining markets. Unlike Finding Dory, not many of the remaining markets are likely to be large (largest is probably China), there are more of them, and the only specific estimates I can find at the moment are for China and South Korea. (thanks @Olive) So I'm going to use the approach I did for the August and September Dory markets and consider them in aggregate.

 

The following table groups the markets by opening date, and shows your estimates from earlier, a raw unrounded calculation for those markets combined, my estimate, and the adjusted ER totals of Despicable Me 2, Minions, Inside Out, and Zootopia.

 

Comparing the estimated total for the three market groupings where an estimate can be made with some degree of certainty, Despicable Me 2 and Inside Out have a pretty similar total in aggregate, even though on a country-by-country basis there is wide variation. Pets is consistently outperforming Zootopia in aggregate so far. On that basis, I'm predicting about $250M for all remaining markets. Taking into consideration Olive's estimates of $50M for China and $15M for SK, a remaining total of about $190M is in line with DM2's performance in those markets.

 

Total OS estimate for Pets is then 100+100+250 = $450M.

I would need to examine a larger set of films to be more sure of the estimate of $250M and how wide of a range to expect. That being said, that estimate doesn't rely on Pets getting a large amount anywhere aside from China, I can't imagine Pets underperforming by more than $50M, and probably not by more than $25M. Without breaking out unexpectedly in China or Japan though (a la Zootopia or Frozen) I also wouldn't expect Pets to outperform that estimate by too much.

 

With about half the OS gross required to hit $400M coming from markets yet to open, I would hesitate to call Pets "locked" for $400M, but I think it's very unlikely for it to miss.

 

Raw data hidden below for anyone who is interested (comments/suggestions welcome if you are!):

  Hide contents

All territories with individual estimates and calculations where applicable, as well as adjusted ER gross of DM2, Minions, IO, and Zootopia:

 

The estimates for films in markets opening before the 24th were "calculated" by determining the weekly gross from the 24th to the 31st and then approximating the remaining gross using the weekend drop (if less than 30%, 30% drop was used - somewhat arbitrary):

 

The estimates for films in markets opening from the 31st were "calculated" by using the average OW% from DM2, Minions, IO, and Zootopia (Pakistan was pure guesstimate):

 

 

 

 

 

Wow Jason, superb superb job as always! Gonna print your predictions to look at them much closely especially as new markets open but you made me much more confident that my initial 366m OS projections were indeed too low (worst case and not realistic). Am now seeing the 400-450m range more likely because of the detailed analysis you did.

Perhaps it would be interesting to revisit this 2 weeks from now after China and Japan have both opened since these are the 2 biggest variables. The rest of the markets should be more or less without surprises. I think that given that you didn't predict any crazy break outs for Pets in the remaining 48 markets nor an underperf. then pretty much your final estimate will be on point regardless of any minor +ve or -ve surprises in any of these markets.

Thanks for taking the time for this! I'll print and read in detail. 

[MinaTakla]

Hey @Jason- we will need to revise our estimates for both Finding Dory and Pets in Argentina. The winter holiday ended last weekend and every movie is dropping between 70 and 80% this weekend (that's super terrible). Early figures on Ultracine is showing no movie will survive a better drop than 75% lol. So based on this Pets may not cross 13-14m instead of 20m and Dory won't cross 17m instead of 20-22m. 

Am also looking at countries which will have its summer vacations end early. So far the main threat will be Russia which Pets will have only 2 weeks of holidays in and Brazil which Pets will open in after the holidays so I'll check with both threads to update our estimates.

[Purple Minion]

THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS made an estimated $68.6M overseas weekend, for $182.6M overseas / $502.2M global total. #TheSecretLifeOfPets

[Omni]

What are the remaining markets for the sloppy slop?

[MinaTakla]

19 minutes ago, Omni said:

What are the remaining markets for the sloppy slop?

Around 30 markets remaining. Some big ones: Japan, Italy, Australia, Russia and some mid size-small ones. And it started its China run 5 days ago.

What's your updated predix for WW?

[Omni]

@MinaTakla

 

DOM it's clearly making more than 350 millions. I predicted 355 weeks ago, but it will probably make more than that, as it's running head-to-head with Inside Out (-.-) and can capitalize on the gain collected in the first week. Unless Pete's Dragon hurts it, Jungle Book is the target.

OS it's running about on par with IO as well. OS-China for IO was 484 millions, and Pets will probably trail that by 15/20% (depending on Japan, as grosses in the other strong markets are pretty much settled) due to slightly less tickets sold and even worse ER. In China, it made 105M Yen for a total just under 200M. Should make around 400M Yen there, meaning 65M dollars or so.

 

Ergo:

365M DOM

405M OS-China

65M China

835M WW

 

I'm pretty confident it's accurate by at least 97%.

 

Btw, the reason you are inspired by Illumination is approssimately also the reason why I despise it. It's an emerging studio that produces foxy products about funny minions and talking pets, meaning characters and story with no depth but with the capacity of touching Average Joe's daily life and attitudes and of offering cheap, mindless picks good for a few laughs. 99,999% of population doesn't care about the dignity of animation, it doesn't matter if they go see Zootopia or Ice Age 4, Inside Out or Despicable Me 2. And it's all about pleasing the masses, so from this perspective Illumination certainly deserves tons of congratulations: they know what to do.

But I absolutely love animation and have the maximum respect for it. Masterpieces must reign, craps and semi-craps must die as they're an insult to the genre. Therefore I can only like completely different kind of "emergences": the one (1928-1937) that made a man on the verge of ruin transform a few animated shorts for kids into a 80 minutes long masterpiece (I'm obviously referring to Snow White, the greatest movie ever made according to...Eisenstein!!) and the one (1986-1994) that gave new birth to animation, making a movie of a suffering genre get a nomination for best film (Beauty and the Beast, of course).

That's why I find painful to see animated trifles being successful. But then again, the real pain was to bear that WD was producing farts like Home on the Range and Chicken Little. That was a true nightmare.

Edited August 7, 2016 by Omni

[MinaTakla]

22 minutes ago, Omni said:

@MinaTakla

 

DOM it's clearly making more than 350 millions. I predicted 355 weeks ago, but it will probably make more than that, as it's running head-to-head with Inside Out (-.-) and can capitalize on the gain collected in the first week. Unless Pete's Dragon hurts it, Jungle Book is the target.

OS it's running about on par with IO as well. OS-China for IO was 484 millions, and Pets will probably trail that by 15/20% (depending on Japan, as grosses in the other strong markets are pretty much settled) due to slightly less tickets sold and even worse ER. In China, it made 105M Yen for a total just under 200M. Should make around 400M Yen there, meaning 65M dollars or so.

 

Ergo:

365M DOM

405M OS-China

65M China

835M WW

 

I'm pretty confident it's accurate by at least 97%.

 

Btw, the reason you are inspired by Illumination is approssimately also the reason why I despise it. It's an emerging studio that produces foxy products about funny minions and talking pets, meaning characters and story with no depth but with the capacity of touching Average Joe's daily life and attitudes and of offering cheap, mindless picks good for a few laughs. 99,999% of population doesn't care about the dignity of animation, it doesn't matter if they go see Zootopia or Ice Age 4, Inside Out or Despicable Me 2. And it's all about pleasing the masses, so from this perspective Illumination certainly deserves tons of congratulations: they know what to do.

But I absolutely love animation and have the maximum respect for this. Therefore I can only like completely different kind of "emergences": the one (1928-1937) that made a man on the verge of ruin transform a few animated shorts for kids into a 80 minutes long masterpiece (I'm obviously referring to Snow White, the greatest movie ever made according to...Eisenstein!!) and the one (1986-1994) that gave new birth to animation, making a movie of a suffering genre get a nomination for best film (Beauty and the Beast, of course).

That's why I find painful to see animated trifles being successful. But then again, the real pain was to bear that WD was producing farts like Home on the Range and Chicken Little. That was a true nightmare.

Thanks Omni and I respect our different opinions on Illumination.

I follow your predictions very well cuz you are always on point. Thanks for providing a detailed predix and point of view:)

Btw I strongly recommend u see the below 2 films - the best animated films I've seen this year and was blown away by them:

THE RED TURTLE

MY LIFE AS A COURGETTE

Both French coproductions and I saw them at Cannes in May and drove me literally to tears.

Edited August 7, 2016 by MinaTakla

[MinaTakla]

THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS
Illumination/Universal’s dog tale broke the $400M mark earlier this week and today has bounded past $500M at the worldwide box office. With a $28.9M opening inChina (where it bowed Tuesday) Pets collared a $68.6M weekend in 41 territories. The offshore total is now $182.6M and worldwide it’s at $502.2M.

Several new markets opened this weekend. In China, Pets is No. 2 behind local blockbuster Time Raiders. In Korea, it did a solid $6.8M despite being in 5th place behind three local pics and the beginning ofSuicide Squad. Spain topped Suicide Squad with $4.5M over the FSS. Elsewhere,Pets scooped up $2.7M in theNetherlands (No. 2); $1.3M in Belgium(No. 1); $1.2M in Sweden (No. 2); and $1.1M at No. 1 in Denmark which tops all other Illumination/Uni debuts. Hungary delivered the biggest opening overall of the year with $738K.

In holds, Germany is at No. 1 for the 2nd week in a row (Suicide did not open there this weekend) with $4.3M and an 11-day total of $15.2M. France’s cume is $11.9M; Latin America has Pets in Mexico at $14.7M after 10 days, and No. 1 for the 3rd straight frame in Argentina with $10.3M after 18 days. There are still 24 markets to come on Pets.

 

Edited August 8, 2016 by MinaTakla