newbie BO buff Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 We just went through 2015, with its amazing 5 billion dollar movies - a new record. I thought, hey, that one is gonna stick for a while. But then .... Zootopia gets oh so close. The Jungle Book has a very strong chance. Captain America: Civil War will zoom past 1 billion with absolute ease. And what about: Finding Dory Independence Day: Resurgence Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Are we looking at another record-setting year here? What do you guys think? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cynosure Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 (edited) Rogue One Civil War Finding Dory I think Zootopia and TJB will fall just below and I don't think FB will manage it. So no. Edited June 19, 2016 by Cynosure 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I have these 4 as (nearly) locked: Civil War Finding Dory Independence Day 2 Rogue One Jungle Book could reach it but I think it will fail by a few millions. Same applies to Zootopia. Outsiders? Suicide Squad (personal bet), Alice 2 (it can repeat what AiW did or to be a complete failure. I see more probable the second choice), Fantastic Beasts (I have it at 800s, but who knows), Moana (??) and Ice Age 5 (the 2 previous films average 700m OS). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Rogue One, Civil War and Finding Dory are guaranteed to reach the number. I think there is a significant chance that at least one of Zootopia and TJB will reach $1B (TJB is more likely to do that imo). And at least one of ID2 and FB should make it there. It's unlikely all four of the above will make it but they all have significant chances. No chance that Suicide Squad, Alice 2 or Ice Age will make it. Moana is a complete wildcard. Could be another Frozen or another Tangled. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie BO buff Posted May 1, 2016 Author Share Posted May 1, 2016 18 hours ago, Quigley said: Rogue One, Civil War and Finding Dory are guaranteed to reach the number. I think there is a significant chance that at least one of Zootopia and TJB will reach $1B (TJB is more likely to do that imo). And at least one of ID2 and FB should make it there. It's unlikely all four of the above will make it but they all have significant chances. No chance that Suicide Squad, Alice 2 or Ice Age will make it. Moana is a complete wildcard. Could be another Frozen or another Tangled. I almost completely agree with your assessment. One of Zootopia/TJB will make it. CW absolutely, Dory and RO most likely. But not for ID2 (domestic long range forecast is not that high, and I don't think it will go crazy overseas). FB is not yet strong enough for a billion. So, four. And maaaaaaybe five, but that's a big maybe. 2015's records is still safe. For now. Until 2017 ... when we will meet SW8, Fast 8, Justice League, new Spidey, new Transformers, new Pirates ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 3 hours ago, newbie BO buff said: I almost completely agree with your assessment. One of Zootopia/TJB will make it. CW absolutely, Dory and RO most likely. But not for ID2 (domestic long range forecast is not that high, and I don't think it will go crazy overseas). FB is not yet strong enough for a billion. So, four. And maaaaaaybe five, but that's a big maybe. 2015's records is still safe. For now. Until 2017 ... when we will meet SW8, Fast 8, Justice League, new Spidey, new Transformers, new Pirates ... and DM3 in 2017 too! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Planodisney Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 Zootopia is basically a lock for 1 billion now. TJB is looking like it has a strong possibility now as well. Rogue 1 and Finding Dory are almost a sure thing for 1 billion IMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Uni may have been the first to make 3-billion dollar grossers in a year, but Disney will be the first to make 4! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arlo245 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 First year with two $1 billion animated films as well with an outside chance of 3 (Moana: First princess movie in 3 years aka since Frozen). Last year got fairly close with Minions ($1.16B) and Inside Out ($0.86B), and 2013 got even closer with Frozen ($1.28B) and Despicable Me 2 ($0.97B) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie BO buff Posted June 7, 2016 Author Share Posted June 7, 2016 On 5/1/2016 at 5:29 PM, newbie BO buff said: One of Zootopia/TJB will make it. CW absolutely, Dory and RO most likely. But not for ID2 (domestic long range forecast is not that high, and I don't think it will go crazy overseas). FB is not yet strong enough for a billion. CW and Zoo has safely landed. TJB will miss it by 10-15 mil I think. Can Korea and Japan carry it? Dory still looking good, if OS not really crazy, domestic will more than make up for it. RO still seems to be a safe bet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averagejoe Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 IMO, Now that we already have Civil War and Zootopia in the club, Personally, I am hoping that The Jungle Book will also be able to earn $1 billion, heard that it has rather high chances now. Rouge One and Finding Dory should cross that with ease. Resurgence is possible but I am not sure about that, and then for Moana we will only know when it opens I guess. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Just imagine if 5 Disney movies make it there and they're the only ones. Truly unprecedented. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m3racer123 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 On 10/06/2016 at 0:38 AM, Quigley said: Just imagine if 5 Disney movies make it there and they're the only ones. Truly unprecedented. Make that 6! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie BO buff Posted July 25, 2016 Author Share Posted July 25, 2016 Now I think TJB will definitely not hit 1 billion. And Dory will miss it by a hair. So, only 3 billion dollar movies for 2016: Civil War, Zootopia, Rogue One What an accomplishment for Zootopia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 I would not say it so early that both Jungle Book and Dory will not reach the billion. Disney live action films have been quite big in Japan and there is no reason to think otherwise for TJB. And concerning Dory, it still has to open in UK, Germany and Italy. Nemo did 140 million in those markets. Let's wait. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 3 hours ago, peludo said: I would not say it so early that both Jungle Book and Dory will not reach the billion. Disney live action films have been quite big in Japan and there is no reason to think otherwise for TJB. And concerning Dory, it still has to open in UK, Germany and Italy. Nemo did 140 million in those markets. Let's wait. It's going to be have to be at least ¥6.4 billion big. That's no guarantee for The Jungle Book. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 3 hours ago, peludo said: I would not say it so early that both Jungle Book and Dory will not reach the billion. Disney live action films have been quite big in Japan and there is no reason to think otherwise for TJB. And concerning Dory, it still has to open in UK, Germany and Italy. Nemo did 140 million in those markets. Let's wait. The trend around the world seems to be that Finding Dory does less in foreign markets than Finding Nemo did. $140m from those three markets is no cakewalk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 (edited) Done: Civil War ($1.16B) Zootopia ($1.025B) Very likely: Finding Dory (99% probability, $1.05B to $1.1B)* Rogue One (95% probability, $1.3B to $1.6B)** Maybe: Jungle Book (40% probability, $980m more likely)* Moana (50% probability, $900m more likely)** Long shot: Fantastic beasts (25% probability $800m to $850m more likely)** Pets (5%, needs to break out in China like Zoo otherwise $800m to $900m)* Suicide Squad (1%, is there any reason why this should beat BvS OS? I'm thinking $750m or so)** * projection ** prediction I don't see any non-Disney movie getting there. FB has the best shot but Potter's traditionally strongest markets (Japan & The UK) are looking shaky. Every Potter movie decreased from the previous one both in admissions and gross (in local currency) with the exception of the last one for obvious reasons. This one being a spinoff and coming five years after the last one might have an even steeper drop off. And then you have the ER. UK will eat this up but obiously the ER will limit its gross as well. Pets needs $150m+ in China to get there. Only Zoo and KFP have ever done that much (among animated movies). Edited July 25, 2016 by Agafin 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie BO buff Posted July 25, 2016 Author Share Posted July 25, 2016 1 hour ago, cannastop said: The trend around the world seems to be that Finding Dory does less in foreign markets than Finding Nemo did. $140m from those three markets is no cakewalk. There's this sudden depressing box office slump all over the world, China being the most evident (and have numbers to back that up). I am not belittling Dory and the others, I am actually a bit sad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said: There's this sudden depressing box office slump all over the world, China being the most evident (and have numbers to back that up). I am not belittling Dory and the others, I am actually a bit sad. What do you mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...