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WrathOfHan

Weekend Actuals (Page 75): X-MEN 103.3M OS OW | Angry Birds 38.15M | Captain America 32.9M (Ahoy Matey!!) | Neighbors 21.7M | The Nice Guys 11.2M | Jungle Book 10.9M

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HOME vs GET HARD multipliers:

 

Home multiplier for The Angry Birds Movie:

800K x 24.2 = 19.3M

19.3M + 39.2% = 26.9M

26.9M - 33.7% = 17.8M

TOTAL = 64M (:ohmygod:)

 

 

Get Hard multiplier for Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising:

1.67M x 7.2 = 12M

12M + 1.6% = 12.1M

12.1 - 40.7% = 7.2M

TOTAL = 31.3M

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What I'm expecting for the weekend:

 

Angry Birds:

 

13M Friday

20M Saturday

14M Sunday

47M Weekend

 

Neighbors:

 

11M Friday

10M Saturday

6.6M Sunday

27.6M Weekend

 

Nice Guys:

 

6M Friday

7.3M Saturday

4.7M Sunday

18M Weekend

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That's above $100k over Money Monster for The Nice Guys. I'd argue it may have a bit more upfront appeal, but $5-6m seems about right for today. Plus, Flixster ratings have started strong (89% so far) so the potential for a sleeper hit is good.

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Neighbors 2 will still be a hit because they kept the budget low, but big (expected) drop off from the first one. Chloe Moretz is not exactly a box office value add to make people show up to the movies.

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Comps from BOM http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4188&p=.htm

 

Quote

Friday AM Update: Neighbors: Sorority Rising kicked off its opening weekend with $1.67 million from Thursday night previews, which began at 7 PM in 2,627 theaters. From a comparison standpoint, the first film started off with $2.56 million, which continues to suggest we're looking at an opening well below the original's $49 million. Otherwise, Dumb and Dumber To brought in $1.6 million in 2014 before opening with $36.1 million as did Spy which ended up opening with $29 million just last year.

 

Sony reports Angry Birds brought in $800,000 from Thursday previews. Animated films don't frequently have Thursday previews, which makes comparisons difficult, but the closest comparisons include Big Hero 6, which brought in $1.4 million and opened with $56.2 million; Home brought in $650,000 and opened with $52.1 million; and The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water brought in $560,000 and opened with $55.3 million.

 

Finally, WB's The Nice Guys brought in $700,000, which is $100,000 more than Money Monster made last weekend before going on to open with nearly $15 million. A little higher on the spectrum, Pain and Gain brought in $750,000 before opening with $20.4 million. Other comparisons seem a little too far outside the spectrum of possibility, such as 21 Jump Street, which also brought in $700,000 and opened with $36.3 million, but this start does suggest an opening around $14-17 million is very likely.

 

Edited by a2knet
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18 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Neighbors 2 will still be a hit because they kept the budget low, but big (expected) drop off from the first one. Chloe Moretz is not exactly a box office value add to make people show up to the movies.

 

Budget of NEIGHBORS 2 is 35m (NEIGHBORS was 18m). So a very profitable proposition despite the drop-off.

Probably a 30m ow / 75m dom.

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