baumer Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 Keyser Soze I know that if it follows history the increases would be significant enough for it to have a very small drop this weekend. But I just don't think I can follow history with the numbers being so strong during the week. There has to be some give somewhere where the number is even a kind of like last weekend when people were projecting it to do 85 million based on Thursdays number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lobogotti Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 22 minutes ago, Baumer said: Keyser Soze I know that if it follows history the increases would be significant enough for it to have a very small drop this weekend. But I just don't think I can follow history with the numbers being so strong during the week. There has to be some give somewhere where the number is even a kind of like last weekend when people were projecting it to do 85 million based on Thursdays number. when last Friday hit 23.2M, $77M weekend felt like the floor. then the film ends up a hair under $73M. proving that the weekends are indeed suffering a tad because of strong weekdays. so as you say, it's tough to expect a massive 3rd weekend as a result. regardless, the film is doing phenomenal and at this point it's the sixth fastest to its current domestic film (I think)... and it's a freaking animation. that's insane crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 regardless what it does this weekend it's still going to be a massive amount. I just don't think it's going to fall in the mid-to-high 30% for the 3 day. There are a couple of posters that were mentioning that. I guess it could fall in the low 40s but I just think that through only so many good drops that can come from this. Eventually it has to start evening out or else it is going to be on its way to something like six hundred million. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Dory looks to be around $40M for the three day weekend, which should be around $370M after 17 days of release. Even if Pets causes a 50% drop, Shrek 2 seems all but assured, and $500M could still be on the table. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 2 hours ago, filmlover said: Man, hard to believe these are the movies that Hollywood decided to be the event movies of 4th of July weekend. How far this weekend has fallen. This has probably been the worst summer movie season on record for quality. The indie movies have been great and you could make cases for Shallows, Dory and even Civil War, but none of those were great, nothing else has been better, and it doesn't look like July or August will give us a great blockbuster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lobogotti Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 22 minutes ago, Spaghetti said: Dory looks to be around $40M for the three day weekend, which should be around $370M after 17 days of release. Even if Pets causes a 50% drop, Shrek 2 seems all but assured, and $500M could still be on the table. around $41.3M and 43.5% drop is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Shorts Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 I think it's time to start the Dory > TDK club! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, Gopher said: it doesn't look like July or August will give us a great blockbuster. Hold out hope for Bourne we must Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeQ Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 (edited) Based on the weekdays, if it were an ordinary weekend, I think Dory would be looking at a ~45% weekend drop (3-day). But since Friday is a national holiday in Canada, and Monday is a national holiday in the US, the Friday and Sunday will be inflated for the 3-day weekend. I expect a ~40% drop as a result. Thus, I see $43-44 million for the 3-day weekend. Dory is lucky that this year the US holiday falls on the Monday - so, while it's 4-day total gross will be harmed (as the Monday won't be as strong), it's 3-day weekend won't be docked in the way that both Toy Story 3 and Inside Out's weekends were. Thus, I don't think it's unreasonable to see a ~40% drop from Dory, particularly as the openers look to all be relatively muted, once again. Next weekend will be the interesting one to look at for Dory, with The Secret Life of Pets opening. However, Inside Out only dropped 40% against the huge opening of Minions, and as Secret Life of Pets will not open nearly this large (I expect $65-70 million), Dory could also have a solid drop, but it depends. Dory will be coming off an inflated previous weekend, so I expect a harder drop (45-50%). And perhaps Inside Out only had a solid hold because of sold out shows and overflow. I'm not sure yet how next weekend will pan out. Peace, Mike Edited June 30, 2016 by MikeQ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 27 minutes ago, Gopher said: This has probably been the worst summer movie season on record for quality. The indie movies have been great and you could make cases for Shallows, Dory and even Civil War, but none of those were great, nothing else has been better, and it doesn't look like July or August will give us a great blockbuster. I don't know, 2006 was pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeQ Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 24 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said: Hold out hope for Bourne we must Bourne is incredibly appealing to me - the trailer just looks awesome. Is it reading as well to general audiences, I wonder? Because it looks really good to me. I wonder if this one could surprise and do quite well, depending of course on how good it actually is. Peace, Mike 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmpireCity Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 I think the numbers might be closer to $10.5m and $3.5m for each. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
department store basement Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 15 minutes ago, filmlover said: I don't know, 2006 was pretty bad. World Trade Center is a way better movie than anything I've seen this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 37 minutes ago, Gopher said: This has probably been the worst summer movie season on record for quality. The indie movies have been great and you could make cases for Shallows, Dory and even Civil War, but none of those were great, nothing else has been better, and it doesn't look like July or August will give us a great blockbuster. A case could be made for JASON BOURNE, especially with Greengrass returning, and maybe SUICIDE SQUAD. Kubo and Sausage Party also seem like they could be really solid, but have questionable box office prospects. I'm seriously wondering about an SP breakout, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 1 minute ago, filmlover said: I don't know, 2006 was pretty bad. I have soft spots for MI3 and Devil Wears Prada, and Ricky Bobby is legitimately great. Otherwise this is true. Garbage blockbuster after garbage blockbuster. I'd say 2016 has been the worst since though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 Off the top of my head....the only really good movies I've seen are DEADPOOL 13 HOURS OF BENGAZI SHALLOWS JUNGLE BOOK CRIMINAL decent but not great movies Neighbors 2 Central Intelligence BvS Triple 9 Conjuring 2 I can't remember anything else 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 I think we were just spoiled by 2014. Even with a few misfires, that summer was pretty great for quality. Days of Future Past, Edge of Tomorrow, TFIOS, 22 Jump Street, How To Train your Dragon 2, Planet of the Apes, GOTG... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 So I just read that someone got stabbed at a California theater while watching The Shallows. Talk about a nightmare situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Baumer said: Off the top of my head....the only really good movies I've seen are DEADPOOL 13 HOURS OF BENGAZI SHALLOWS JUNGLE BOOK CRIMINAL decent but not great movies Neighbors 2 Central Intelligence BvS Triple 9 Conjuring 2 I can't remember anything else Love & Friendship is where it's at. Lady Susan is such a wonderfully awful character played to perfection by Kate Beckinsale. “May Mr. Johnson's next gouty attack end more favorably.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
department store basement Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 (edited) My top 10 of the year so far is 1. Jungle Book - 87 2. Finding Dory - 86 3. X-Men Apocalypse - 85 4. How to Be Single - 84 5. Free State of Jones - 80 6. PPZ - 79 7. Hail Caesar - 75 8. Nice Guys - 74 9. 5th Wave - 62 10. The Boss - 61 Haven't seen Zootopia, 10 Cloverfield Lane, Green Room, Everybody Wants Some, or Midnight Special yet. Those would definitely be better than the bottom two on my list. Edited June 30, 2016 by department store basement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
