July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

[WrathOfHan]

Wow, that's insane for Tarzan  

[pieman]

Tarzan is a big surprise. People were already calling it a disaster months ago.

[WrathOfHan]

Regarding the 100M talk, I'd hold your horses. If this opens to 42M it needs a 2.38x to hit 100M which might be tough with the competition. 

[Chaz]

Tarzan might be pulling in some older audiences. My 70 year old Dad is really excited to see it.

[MCKillswitch123]

Tarzan breaking out, how nice for Tsujihara - there's a chance he won't go to the unemployment line

 

The Purge 3 is so gonna beat 2 now. YAY!!!!!!!!.... for my Casino.

 

BFG, though... damn .

[a2k]

If Tarzan does 37.5m 3-day (2.55 + 11.45 + 12.5 + 11) it will need 2.67x for 100m dom.

[FlashMaster659]

Assuming a $53M 4-day for Dory, it's still out-legging both TS3 and IO.

 

18-day cume/OW=multi.

 

Dory: $383.35M/$135.06M=2.84x

IO: $250.85M/$90.44M=2.77x

TS3: $301.88M/$110.31M=2.74x

 

TS3 legs (1.37x 18-day) gets Dory to $527.00M and IO legs (1.42x) would get it to $544.76M. $500M DOM is looking more likely now as it only needs a 1.3x multi. to get there. Right now I'd say $493M-$495M is the floor.

Edited July 2, 2016 by FlashMaster659

[John2015]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Regarding the 100M talk, I'd hold your horses. If this opens to 42M it needs a 2.38x to hit 100M which might be tough with the competition. 

 

Tarzan just gets A- cinemascore, so it will gross $100m.

Edited July 2, 2016 by John2015

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Assuming a $53M 4-day for Dory, it's still out-legging both TS3 and IO.

 

18-day cume/OW=multi.

 

Dory: $383.35M/$135.06M=2.84x

IO: $250.85M/$90.44M=2.77x

TS3: $301.88M/$110.31M=2.74x

 

TS3 legs (1.37x 18-day) gets Dory to $527.00M and IO legs (1.42x) would get it to $544.76M. $500M DOM is looking more likely now as it only needs a 1.3x multi. to get there.

 

The high-end (IO like legs) puts it 200m ahead of ZOOTP. Amazing and incredible if it manages ~540m.

Edited July 2, 2016 by a2knet

[grey ghost]

Glad Tarzan is doing decent. I thought the trailers looked fun.

 

I doubt there will be a sequel though.

[grey ghost]

I spent a long time debating whether to put BFG in my top 15 for the summer game.

 

I'm glad I finally accepted it looked too niche for today's audience. Plus it reminded me of Pan for some reason.

[Fancyarcher]

15 minutes ago, John2015 said:

 

Tarzan just gets A- cinemascore, so it will gross $100m.

 

Cinemascores are based off a very low amount of polling. They are a representation of how good legs might be.

[WrathOfHan]

16 minutes ago, John2015 said:

 

Tarzan just gets A- cinemascore, so it will gross $100m.

So did TMNT 2  

[druv10]

23 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Assuming a $53M 4-thday for Dory, it's still out-legging both TS3 and IO.

 

18-day cume/OW=multi.

 

Dory: $383.35M/$135.06M=2.84x

IO: $250.85M/$90.44M=2.77x

TS3: $301.88M/$110.31M=2.74x

 

TS3 legs (1.37x 18-day) gets Dory to $527.00M and IO legs (1.42x) would get it to $544.76M. $500M DOM is looking more likely now as it only needs a 1.3x multi. to get there. Right now I'd say $493M-$495M is the floor.

If it gets that close to 500M Disney will make sure it hits that mark.

[The Panda]

Please stop acting like Cinemascore is an indicator for legs.  I've literally scatter plotted hundreds of movies from the last few years and found no correlation of a high Cinemascore to a high multiplier.

 

Cinemascore is a useless tool when talking about box office.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Tarzan is probably going to have an opening within a couple million of IDR.

 

Bahahahahahahahaha

[Yandereprime101189]

1 hour ago, ThatOneGuy said:

STOP CALLING THE BFG A FLOP, IT'S DISHEARTENING

 

Should we call it the BFF, The Big Fat Flop? Or the BFD - Big Fat Disappointment 

Edited July 2, 2016 by Yandereprime101189

[Lordmandeep]

Tarzan did alright but was likely limited as most people got it confused with Jungle Book. 

[That One Girl]

The only way you can for sure determine if a movie will have good legs with CinemaScore is if it gets an A+ or a C+ and below.  Even then, there are exceptions 

[Nova]

Just now, Spaghetti said:

Tarzan is probably going to have an opening within a couple million of IDR.

 

Bahahahahahahahaha

IDR cost $15M less to make so technically IDR is the real winner between the two