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AndyLL

Love your perfume. What is that, Stench of Derby? | Week 32

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On ‎8‎/‎3‎/‎2016 at 2:11 AM, cannastop said:

Another Grimsby?

Here is the sheet. For the new comers, enter estimates next to Andy only. If a warning pops up, hit cancel and enter elsewhere. @JohnnY got a little depressed and was looking for a couple meters of rope in the garage last week when he suddenly dropped to 30th  due to an  improper input.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BSfv4fdGQ03flu-Q2EYcGRVqnM27A-OtHcd6AZE6Gfg/edit?usp=sharing

 

We have 3 wild cards in play that could screw your derby a la @WrathOfHan especial.

9 lives could pull a Grimsby and with just a few players under 5m this could kill almost everyone

Insane weekday holds on Moms. if it plays out like Trainwreck it does 17m, Just 2 players over 15m and can cause the field some damage

Lights Out has double features playing SS and could get a 500k to 2m boost. only o few players are over 6m. Remember Shallows and AiW2 @Matrix4You?

 

Winner of the derby this week gets a date with Harley Quinn. May you rest in peace after she is done with you. One helluva way to go out!

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Was over $8m on Nine Lives at one point because it was tracking in that range and talking animal movies normally have a high floor, but when I realised just how little promotional push it had gotten, I bumped it down. Besides, families have been rinsed for cash by Dory and SLOP this summer, not to mention that Zootopia/Jungle Book combo in the spring. Went down to $6.4m and even that might be too high.

 

I figured Moms could hold up reasonably well but didn't want to get too aggressive in case it burned me in a week where SS could suck the gravity out of the rest of the building; having seen that it held up better on weekdays than SLOP (an animated holdover!) that looks like a big mistake, but at least I'm above the Derby average there. Conversely, I went higher than most on Bourne because it's not in 3D so doesn't have the same degree of premium showtimes baked into its opener that would get lost to SS, but it will still lose some PLF showtimes and its obvious comp Rogue Nation had no added competition, so I think I went too high there in retrospect. (Although I still think it clears the sub-$25m derby average.)

 

Going to get burned by Lights Out double features, I can feel it.

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12 minutes ago, ShinyDave said:

Going to get burned by Lights Out double features, I can feel it.

 

Double features usually see the highest impact when it's Disney.  The Shallows was one those rare outliers earlier in the summer.

 

From what I saw, Jason Bourne is also playing a lot of double features with SS.

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43 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Double features usually see the highest impact when it's Disney.  The Shallows was one those rare outliers earlier in the summer.

 

From what I saw, Jason Bourne is also playing a lot of double features with SS.

Both of these give me hope! I'm also banking on an Ice Age crash, by the looks of it. Animations usually hold up, but the WOM on this one is toxic, plus I noticed it had lost a shedload of locations (1,259 to be exact, almost double what STB lost) and I got burned by the theater loss for Tarzan last week so was determined not to duplicate that.

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2 hours ago, ShinyDave said:

Both of these give me hope! I'm also banking on an Ice Age crash, by the looks of it. Animations usually hold up, but the WOM on this one is toxic, plus I noticed it had lost a shedload of locations (1,259 to be exact, almost double what STB lost) and I got burned by the theater loss for Tarzan last week so was determined not to duplicate that.

The suck out of a big opener is bigger in spring with less overall moviegoers. GotG had a smaller impact at 90m in august than a 100m+ opener in april or early may

 

Tarzan was nearly a 50% theater loss and had JB to contend with. 35% loss  can have an impact but there isn't any competition so I stayed Higher

 

It can go either way. Will be an interesting weekend

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5 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

The suck out of a big opener is bigger in spring with less overall moviegoers. GotG had a smaller impact at 90m in august than a 100m+ opener in april or early may

 

Tarzan was nearly a 50% theater loss and had JB to contend with. 35% loss  can have an impact but there isn't any competition so I stayed Higher

 

It can go either way. Will be an interesting weekend

It could indeed. Probably the best comp was Smurfs 2's third weekend (similar scale of theater loss and toxic word of mouth), and it went -48.9%. Which would put Ice Age just over $5.5m, right near where the Derby Average puts it...

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Using Deadline numbers. They will probably be off by 5 -10% as usual, I hope or I really screwed the pooch this week

 

1 BoxOfficeZ 90.12 25 Viceversa 86.40
2 ChipMunky 89.94 26 Mike Hunt 86.27
3 BoxOffice.com 89.72 27 WrathOfHan 86.24
4 SquareWatcher 89.37 28 Wildbill 86.15
5 Rolling Thunder 89.29 29 BoxOfficeMojo 86.03
6 Derby Average 88.69 30 Wonka 85.58
7 bapi 88.64 31 darkelf 85.43
8 Wrath 88.60 32 Spaghetti 85.34
9 Horror Wizard 88.41 33 luxneji 85.28
10 8wombi7 88.34 34 narniadis 85.17
11 Iraf 88.26 35 JMorphin 84.98
12 ShinyDave 88.11 36 Bozly 84.90
13 JohnnY 88.07 37 CoolEric258 84.84
14 Arlborn 88.00 38 boxofficeth 84.18
15 PanaMovie 87.96 39 24Lost 83.79
16 TalismanRing 87.94 40 AndyLL 83.18
17 cannastop 87.71 41 Tower 83.10
18 Matrix4You 87.45 42 Fanboy 82.80
19 Olive 87.19 43 No Prisoners 82.71
20 moviecriticguy 87.17 44 lilmac 82.51
21 Exxdee 87.13 45 AABATTERY 82.01
22 keysersoze123 86.83 46 Lights Camera Action 80.95
23 Blankments 86.65 47 Bates 32.25
24 Simionski 86.41      
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I did the hard bit (decent guess on Nine Lives, lowballing the living daylights out of IA5, going sub-50% drop for Nerve because of its Wednesday opener) and then cost myself a possible top-5 place because I didn't recognise that Bourne would get destroyed by SS?!?

 

Can't believe it. Every week it seems I get two or three on the nose and then throw it all away on an easy one.

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I think deadline just takes guesses. Big % changes. I went from near last to top ten and many others shifted big as well.  The Derby Average esta en fuego. "The experts" should just be using that from now on. BO and BOM finally in the upper 50%. Congratulations

I used Friday estimates with last weeks Friday multies. Numbers could be a little higher as Saturday may bounce back a bit from SSs OD

 

1 Horror Wizard 91.99 24 moviecriticguy 87.30
2 Derby Average 91.47 25 Bozly 87.05
3 8wombi7 91.34 26 Rolling Thunder 86.87
4 TalismanRing 91.34 27 CoolEric258 86.86
5 ShinyDave 91.10 28 AndyLL 86.73
6 Olive 90.59 29 Lights Camera Action 86.56
7 Arlborn 90.22 30 Spaghetti 86.22
8 No Prisoners 89.54 31 WrathOfHan 85.84
9 Exxdee 89.44 32 Blankments 85.84
10 PanaMovie 89.18 33 Wildbill 85.64
11 Iraf 89.03 34 Tower 85.53
12 BoxOffice.com 88.89 35 bapi 85.48
13 JohnnY 88.72 36 Fanboy 85.16
14 Matrix4You 88.56 37 lilmac 85.13
15 Viceversa 88.36 38 JMorphin 84.74
16 ChipMunky 88.33 39 Wonka 83.60
17 Wrath 87.98 40 keysersoze123 83.14
18 BoxOfficeZ 87.91 41 SquareWatcher 82.88
19 Simionski 87.90 42 narniadis 82.65
20 BoxOfficeMojo 87.75 43 24Lost 82.54
21 boxofficeth 87.69 44 AABATTERY 82.34
22 darkelf 87.66 45 luxneji 81.80
23 cannastop 87.53 46 Mike Hunt 80.98

 

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I am loving that table. :P

 

$146.1m seems way too high for SS. If it matches the Sat/Sun drops of BvS it gets $132.6m (which would give me, and the DA, over 99%). SS might hold up a bit better because its opening day took on the Olympic opening ceremony, although Sat/Sun have the actual events as tough non-theatrical competition.

 

Interestingly, SS took 31.5% of its "Friday" take in previews (can we just call that a Thursday launch already? I know evening Thursday launches are the norm post-Aurora, but when PotC3 and Shrek 3 did the same strategy in 2007 it counted as a Thursday opening day and the latter lost its single-day animation record to what Dory did in not a single day :huh: ), whereas BvS was at 34%. That indicates a possible stronger hold on Sat/Sun.

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21 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

I used Friday estimates with last weeks Friday multies. Numbers could be a little higher as Saturday may bounce back a bit from SSs OD

The openers will be more Friday-loaded by definition (especially because, again with my pet hate, they are actually two-day totals) so that methodology is going to underestimate the sophomore holds, yes?

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Horror Wizard    92.73
8wombi7    92.53
ShinyDave    92.53
TalismanRing    91.98
PanaMovie    91.79
BoxOffice.com    91.53
Derby Average    91.49
Arlborn    91.23
Olive    91.07
BoxOfficeZ    90.91
Iraf    90.5
cannastop    90.47
Exxdee    90.11
Wrath    89.86
No Prisoners    89.41
ChipMunky    89.28
Simionski    89.18
BoxOfficeMojo    89.11
JohnnY    88.75
boxofficeth    88.66
darkelf    88.58
moviecriticguy    88.49
Viceversa    88.47
Matrix4You    88.21
Rolling Thunder    88.21
CoolEric258    87.37
Bozly    87.17
Lights Camera Action    87.13
Blankments    87
Tower    86.73
Fanboy    86.56
WrathOfHan    86.46
AndyLL    86.45
Spaghetti    86.38
bapi    86.01
Wildbill    85.82
Wonka    85.2
lilmac    85.19
JMorphin    84.83
keysersoze123    84.65
SquareWatcher    84.62
AABATTERY    84.56
narniadis    83.87
luxneji    83.71
24Lost    83.51
Mike Hunt    82.82

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