Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[Darth Homer]

The DCEU is dead. Bury it. Consider this mercy.

Edited August 14, 2016 by Darth Homer

[Nova]

26 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Looks like this is the 2017 CBM slate:

 

March 3: Untitled Wolverine sequel (Fox)
March 31: Ghost In The Shell (Paramount)
May 5: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2......#1
June 2: Wonder Woman
June 16: Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)
July 7: Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony release, Marvel Studios-produced)......#3
October 6: Untitled Fox Marvel film (Fox) (...which one is this?)
November 3: Thor: Ragnarok
November 17: Justice League........#2
Unscheduled 2017: Bloodshot (Valiant/Sony)

 

JL surely has a shot at #1.

The Marvel Fox film I think was supposed to be Gambit. However I'm not so sure it's going to happen right now. 

 

Also JL should win the year. There's no doubt in my mind it should. The demand for DC films is there. However before the year started I also never thought a movie featuring Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman would be the third or fourth highest CBM of the year. It just demands what kind of movie they put out. If it's well received it's going to make a killing. And if it's not well then I think GOTG2 has it in the bag. 

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, sdeezy said:

 

If Wonder Woman is universally acclaimed, i think it could win the year. Its very obvious there's a great upfront demand for these DC characters when you look at their OW numbers and they have the best marketing squad in the business. If only they wouldnt keep fucking up the actual films

I don't see it. I think it'll make a lot of money and have a $100M+ opener but I also think there are three other CBM that will be higher than it. GOTG2, Spider-Man and JL. 

[MCKillswitch123]

45 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Spider-Man or JL. Even if it's bad JL could still make a billion.

 

That's what she said about BVS.

 

As for the question itself, yeah, I think Guardians will be the top CBM of 2017.

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

Zero chance that Wonder Woman is going to win the year.  

I think he meant winning the year between superhero movies. If not then he totally forgot about Episode 8 lol.

[UrosepsisFace]

31 minutes ago, Haley Ross said:

 

Whether I believe it or not is inconsequential. My point in bringing up those links is that the figures didn't come out of nowhere from people who hated the movie as much as you would like to believe that. That the budget being north of $250 million was something that was reported as early as last year by one of the actors on set. It's funny you say hopefully common sense kicks in and I realize maybe a studio that has existed for a century doesn't just keep hemorrhaging money and is stupid enough to keep doing it when essentially that is exactly what the investment banks did to cause the U.S. housing crisis. 

 

You could convince me that maybe the budgets are that high, but again, all of these movies have similar situations. Somehow, the studios keep making money. Keep in mind that this studio isn't some singular being that has tons of cash. There are many investors and tons of people deciding where money goes and tons of people receiving money. If they're actually hemorrhaging the $$$, more than one voice will speak up. Also, this wouldn't be studio specific. Interestingly, the predictions for SS were far lower than what it's actually doing, but as it overcomes  each benchmark, a new benchmark to determine its success is given.

 

Maybe you're right, and Hollywood, despite its existence for a century is about to go Big Short level. In that case, I commend you Dr. Christian Bale.  You can gather Gosling, Carrel, and Pitt and make some bets on the demise of the movie industry. Heck, I think you might be on to something, but its certainly not a problem limited to just this one franchise that you seem to be fixated on. Wouldn't it be a general problem, and something everybody should be concerned about?

 

 

Edited August 14, 2016 by UrosepsisFace

[FilmBuff]

Urosepsisface- I'm still trying to figure out what your name means. Lol

[The Panda]

I'm thinking

 

1.Guardians - 445m

2.Spider-Man: Homecoming - 310m

3.Wonder Woman - 300m

4.Justice League - 280m

5.Thor: Ragnorak - 200m

6.Wolverine - 120m

[superweirdo87]

Given this is the SS weekend#2 thread, I thought I would mention a convo I had with @IMojammer. I figure that JL should have a huge OW given the brand and the pitch of Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, and these characters together onscreen. WB also does grade A marketing. If the movie is better, it seemed like a better multi might happen. But, he sees like an OW around MoS with a 2.1 or 2.2 multiple as one of the more optimistic scenarios.

 

Given the big OW and seemingly weak multiples with BvS, SS, and perhaps MoS, maybe it is a DC thing. With a 160-170M OW (which maybe too high), a SS multiple is enough to top GOTG2 in more conservative scenarios for GOTG2.

Edited August 14, 2016 by superweirdo87

[Brainiac5]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

I don't see it. I think it'll make a lot of money and have a $100M+ opener but I also think there are three other CBM that will be higher than it. GOTG2, Spider-Man and JL. 

I agree with scenario.

The thing to consider as well is that the DCEU has a chance at 4 straight 100+ openers If they can deliver on both sides the year can look like this

#1.JL

#2.GOTG (I think it's gonna do a billion)

#3.Ww

#4.Spiderman feat Ironman 

#5.Thor 3.

WW also has a shot at a billion .

 

[filmscholar]

Let's be honest, "SS" drop this weekend was mostly because "SP" split it's audience.  The same people most likely to see "SS" would also watch "SP".  With that said, "SP" definitely was going to be a little frontloaded because this is a different type of computer animated film (R-rated).  Parents definitely got the messgae that it wasn't for kids.  So most of them ended up flocking to  "Pete's Dragon" which might be another case of a remake they should of definitely left alone even though the numbers with the competition aren't that bad but not great either.     With that said, I think those are decent numbers for "SP" a Non-PG Computer Animated Film.   Now lets get to the elephant in the room.  Yes that's a hard drop for "SS" , a little less than "BatsVSupes' but still big but hopefully it stabalaizes until Labor Day.   We are going to be at about 220-225 after the weekend.  

 

300 is still in play but it's going to need the right drops in the coming weeks.   "Guardians" can breathe, they lost the record but might still win the war, lol.   "BatsVSupes" can breathe a little too because that would of been bad for "SS" to beat it as WB #1 Comic Book of the year.   But it's still not great that "SS" is probably going to end rght on it's heels.   But this does show that DC Comics had a DEMAND For their characters clearly.  "Wonder Woman" and "Justice League" propspects looking good.    I think "Bourne" and "Trek" are having some solid holds but both OW weren't mindblowing but solid non-the less.   "SLOP" is difinitely the sleeper anination of the summer.   Overall August is mortal once again, these numbers are looking like summer is definitely over.   But based on the many underperformers this summer, it's probably been over for awhile now.   

Edited August 14, 2016 by filmscholar

[Nova]

Here we go again with the budget nonsense and how much this movie has to make to break even. 

 

Truth be told no one knows but the people running the thing. And even if they take a loss they're not going to publicly come out and say it. Like what Sony is doing with Ghostbusters at the moment even though it's clear as day that film was not profitable for them. But they will deny it and come up with excuses or say they're making money from somewhere else in regards to the film. This isn't just for Ghostbusters or for Suicide Squad. This is for every movie. 

 

Then you have the trades who are looking to get clicks to their sites. Having a safe headline isn't going to do that but a headline that states Suicide Squad needs to make $750-800M to break even sure will do the trick. 

 

The studio will say one thing. The trades will say another and then the truth is somewhere in between. That's how it is with every blockbuster that comes out. 

Edited August 14, 2016 by Nova

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

Urosepsisface- I'm still trying to figure out what your name means. Lol

 

https://www.google.co.in/#q=urosepsis + face ?

[UrosepsisFace]

1 minute ago, FilmBuff said:

Urosepsisface- I'm still trying to figure out what your name means. Lol

 

My rule for making a screen name is on the day of its creation, I use the pathology I last saw while leaving the hospital, and hoping it's not taken. If it's taken, I just add "-face" to it and see if that works. Too bad I didn't see Bells Palsy, Horner's Syndrome, or Grave's Disease . Would've made a lot more sense.

[superweirdo87]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

Here we go again with the budget nonsense and how much this movie has to make to break even. 

 

Truth be told no one knows but the people running the thing. And even if they take a loss they're not going to publicly come out and say it. Like what Sony is doing with Ghostbusters at the moment even though it's clear as day that film was not profitable for them. But they will deny it and come up with excuses or say they're making money from somewhere else in regards to the film. This isn't just for Suicide Squad. This is for every movie. 

 

Then you have the trades who are looking to get clicks to their sites. Having a safe headline isn't going to do that but a headline that states Suicide Squad needs to make $750-800M to break even sure will do the trick. 

 

The studio will say one thing. The trades will say another and then the truth is somewhere in between. That's how it is with every blockbuster that comes out. 

 

Yeah. One key part of your post: again. This was discussed last week. If someone wants to know about this, do delve into the OW thread. It covers the basics and we would just be rehashing here.

[baumer]

28 minutes ago, sdeezy said:

 

If Wonder Woman is universally acclaimed, i think it could win the year. Its very obvious there's a great upfront demand for these DC characters when you look at their OW numbers and they have the best marketing squad in the business. If only they wouldnt keep fucking up the actual films

 

You do know there's this small Disney film coming out in December of next year, right?

[Nova]

11 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

I agree with scenario.

The thing to consider as well is that the DCEU has a chance at 4 straight 100+ openers If they can deliver on both sides the year can look like this

#1.JL

#2.GOTG (I think it's gonna do a billion)

#3.Ww

#4.Spiderman feat Ironman 

#5.Thor 3.

WW also has a shot at a billion .

 

I think Spider-Man, if it's good, could be the number one CBM of the year. 

[a2k]

GOTG is facing Spider-Man again next year  We had a very pleasant time in 2014.

Can Spidey spring a surprise this time?

[superweirdo87]

Domestic

1. GOTG2

2. Spider-Man Homecoming

3. Justice League

4  Thor

5. Wonder Woman

6. Wolverine

 

WW

1. Spider-Man homecoming 1.1B

2. GOTG2                           1-1.05B

3. JL                                    825

4. Thor                                  730

5. WW                                  695

6. Wolverine                          495

[MinaTakla]

BAD MOMS makes an estimated $11.45M weekend, down only 18.2%, for $71.46M to date. #BadMoms