Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[Ezen Baklattan]

SPAGHETTI'S WEEKEND PROJECTIONS

1. Suicide Squad (Warner Bros.) - $45,100,000 (-66.3%) - $10,599 PTA - $224,205,000 - 2
2. Sausage Party (Sony / Columbia) - $32,000,000 (--) - $10,312 PTA - $32,000,000 - NEW
3. Pete's Dragon (Disney) - $20,300,000 (--) - $5,455 PTA - $20,200,000 - NEW
4. Jason Bourne (Universal) - $13,300,000 (-40.7%) - $3,770 PTA - $126,462,000 - 3
5. Bad Moms (STX) - $11,300,000 (-19.3%) - $3,545 PTA - $71,311,000 - 3
6. The Secret Life of Pets (Universal) - $9,000,000 (-21.7%) - $3,042 PTA - $336,102,000 - 6
7. Star Trek Beyond (Paramount) - $6,700,000 (-33.2%) - $2,600 PTA - $139,580,000 - 4
8. Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount) - $6,400,000 (--) - $4,188 PTA - $6,400,00 - NEW
9. Nine Lives (EuropaCorp) - $3,550,000 (-43.2%) - $1,568 PTA - $13,601,000 - 2
10. Lights Out (Warner Bros. / New Line) - $3,100,000 (-48.4%) - $1,877 PTA - $61,015,000 - 4

• Nerve (Lionsgate) - $2,700,000 (-44.5%) - $1,519 PTA - $33,148,000 - 3
• Ghostbusters (Sony / Columbia) - $2,300,000 (-50.8%) - $1,601 PTA - $121,709,000 - 5
• Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox) - $1,950,000 (-54.9%) - $1,260 PTA - $58,624,000 - 4
• Finding Dory (Disney) - $1,450,000 (-25.9%) - $2,298 PTA - $476,863,000 - 9
• Cafe Society (Lionsgate) - $950,000 (-40.8%) - $2,088 PTA - $8,493,000 - 5
• Hell or High Water (Lionsgate) - $625,000 (--) - $19,531 PTA - $625,000 - NEW
• Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party (Quality Flix) - $315,000 (-66.1%) - $963 PTA - $12,005,000 - 5
• The BFG (Disney) - $280,000 (-5.4%) - $1,451 PTA - $53,311,000 - 7
• The Jungle Book (Disney) - $185,000 (-14.7%) - $995 PTA - $362,986,000 - 18
• Captain America: Civil War (Disney) - $180,000 (-13.5%) - $1,111 PTA - $407,509,000 - 15
• Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) - $145,000 (-22%) - $930 PTA - $102,552,000 - 8
• Gleason (Open Road) - $140,000 (+25%) - $946 PTA - $456,000 - 3
• Now You See Me 2 (Lionsgate / Summit) - $130,000 (+154.9%) - $861 PTA - $64,853,000 - 10
• Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie (Fox Searchlight) - $110,000 (-67%) - $1,209 PTA - $4,448,000 - 4
• Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (Fox) - $105,000 (-62.1%) - $755 PTA - $45,377,000 - 6
• Alice Through the Looking Glass - $52,500 (-44.2%) - $610 PTA - $76,965,000 - 12

SPAGHETTI'S WEEKEND OBSERVATIONS

• Suicide Squad is still on track to blow past $300m. It should stabilize somewhat after next weekend, and BvS is definitely within solid reach, especially with summer weekdays still holding up, albeit not as strongly.
• Sausage Party is off to a strong start, but seems like it could fall victim to frontloading. While $100m will be a tough battle, it is not out of the question, and even an $80m+ finish for this is excellent, considering the fates of many R-rated animated films. Likely enough for Sony to give Rogen forgiveness for the Interview debacle. 
• Between Pete's Dragon, as well as The BFG and The Jungle Book, Disney is trying to set up a "sweet, kind, orphan human taken in by non-human entity" Cinematic Universe. Sadly, Pete was closer to the former than the latter, but its relatively smaller budget should offset some of the big damage. Even so, the marketing never made it seem like a major family event.
• Bad Moms' hold in the face of another R-rated comedy was pretty tremendous. It looks like the film will cross $100m when all is said and done, making for another really nice late summer breakout.
• Star Trek Beyond finally had a good hold, but it sadly seems to be too little, too late. At least it should be able to get ahead of Apocalypse.
• Despite a good hold this weekend, $500m for Finding Dory has been dead and gone for a while - its projected $480-490m is hardly something to shake a stick at, however.
• Hell or High Water is off to a strong start for a late August indie. With strong reviews and opportunities for future expansion, a $10m+ total is very much possible.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

And when GOTG was announced people said it would flop. Things change as the release date gets closer, you see the trailers, the marketing etc.

Regardless, Harley Quinn has always been one of DC's more popular characters. And the Joker is the most popular comic book villain of all time. Harley Quinn may not be A-list to the GA, but she is certainly up there to the fanboys. 

Harley exploded in popularity with teens with the Arkham games. Those games were huge. 

 

Actually when GotG and Ant-Man were announced I said GotG was going to be a hit (not a 300M hit obviously) and Ant-Man would be the first Marvel flop. So I will count this as half a victory.

[Ent]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

 

Nobody was saying Harley Quinn is an A-list until after the first tracking number came in. When SS was announced the collective response was WTF? And these over $100M OW posts didn't begin until a couple months out. Most thought between $60-80M

 

 

She certainly had more recognition than anyone from the GOTG and had been featured in many cartoons for decades alongside the Joker.    

 

And again Batman and the Joker were higlight point of marketing and you can't have better as CBM hero and villain.  They are both the biggest known CBM characters as villain and hero.

 

Again there was noone in terms of comparative notoriety in GOTG trerelease.   The marketing in here started from no fanbase whatsoever on a complete obscure property with not a single notorious character to promote as a linchpad.

 

So trying to compare them like they had the same fanbase to start with or the same assets character wise is totally flawn.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

FYI NYSM got a mini reexpansion with 2-3 showings at some theaters.

[Nova]

Just now, CJohn said:

Harley exploded in popularity with teens with the Arkham games. Those games were huge. 

 

Actually when GotG and Ant-Man were announced I said GotG was going to be a hit (not a 300M hit obviously) and Ant-Man would be the first Marvel flop. So I will count this as half a victory.

Thats what I'm saying. Her popularity, especially within the comic book fan culture, exploded well before SS was released. 

[robertman2]

Just now, CJohn said:

Harley exploded in popularity with teens with the Arkham games. Those games were huge. 

 

Actually when GotG and Ant-Man were announced I said GotG was going to be a hit (not a 300M hit obviously) and Ant-Man would be the first Marvel flop. So I will count this as half a victory.

Arkham City is the best adaption of Batman, with the exception of Dark Knight

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

FYI NYSM got a mini reexpansion with 2-3 showings at some theaters.

The OS result is so ridiculous that Lionsgate might just go with NYSM3 plus the already announced Chinese spin-off. NYSM3 will probably give Lionsgate a tidy profit after they sell all the OS rights, which should be more than enough to cover the budget and the marketing. The DOM release, even if it does like 60M or so, is pretty much an easy 30M in profit

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

Does Bad Moms have a chance at $100M domestic?

 

Fairly easily.

Will be around 71.5M after this weekend of 11.5M.

 

~86M by next weekend.

(Last Mon-Thu it made ~9M. So say 30% down to 6.25M the coming Mon-Thu + 30% down to 8.25M over the next weekend = 14.5 + 71.5 = 86M)

 

~96M  the weekend after.

(10M week, a 30% decline from previous week of 14.5M)

 

The following weekend it will cruise through 100M.

IMO can't see below 110M.

Edited August 13, 2016 by a2knet

[VinceMichaudC]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The OS result is so ridiculous that Lionsgate might just go with NYSM3 plus the already announced Chinese spin-off. NYSM3 will probably give Lionsgate a tidy profit after they sell all the OS rights, which should be more than enough to cover the budget and the marketing. The DOM release, even if it does like 60M or so, is pretty much an easy 30M in profit

 

NYSM2 still has Germany & Japan remaining too. When all is said and done, the film should be pretty close to it's predecessor's gross of $350M - pretty fantastic.

Edited August 13, 2016 by VinceMichaudC

[MinaTakla]

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Suicide Squad	$44,000,000	-67%	4,255	0	$10,341	$223,104,728	2	Warner Bros.
2	Sausage Party	$33,000,000	—	3,103	—	$10,635	$33,000,000	1	Sony / Columbia
3	Pete’s Dragon (2016)	$19,500,000	—	3,702	—	$5,267	$19,500,000	1	Disney
4	Jason Bourne	$13,200,000	-41%	3,528	-511	$3,741	$126,362,345	3	Universal
5	Bad Moms	$11,200,000	-20%	3,188	-27	$3,513	$34,364,463	3	STX Entertainment
6	The Secret Life of Pets	$8,700,000	-24%	2,958	-459	$2,941	$335,802,075	6	Universal
7	Star Trek Beyond	$7,000,000	-30%	2,577	-686	$2,716	$139,879,949	4	Paramount
8	Florence Foster Jenkins	$6,100,000	—	1,528	—	$3,992	$6,100,000	1	Paramount
9	Nine Lives (2016)	$3,300,000	-47%	2,264	0	$1,458	$13,350,825	2	EuropaCorp Films
10	Lights Out	$3,000,000	-50%	1,652	-929	$1,816	$60,914,818	4	Warner Bros. / New Line
11	Nerve	$2,500,000	-49%	1,777	-761	$1,407	$32,948,395	3	Lionsgate
12	Ghostbusters (2016)	$2,200,000	-53%	1,437	-1108	$1,531	$121,609,002	5	Sony / Columbia
13	Ice Age: Collision Course	$2,000,000	-54%	1,548	-1190	$1,292	$58,673,271	4	Fox

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Finding Dory	$1,400,000	-28%	631	-491	$2,219	$476,813,060	9	Disney
2	Cafe Society	$1,000,000	-38%	455	-176	$2,198	$8,543,186	5	Lionsgate / Amazon
3	Hillary’s America – The Secret History of the Democratic Party	$310,000	-67%	327	-345	$948	$12,000,471	5	D’Souza EntertainmentQuality Flix
4	The BFG	$288,000	-3%	193	-41	$1,492	$53,318,538	7	Disney / DreamWorks
5	Captain America: Civil War	$192,000	-7%	162	-12	$1,185	$407,520,783	15	Disney
6	The Jungle Book (2016)	$191,000	-12%	186	-14	$1,027	$362,991,566	18	Disney
7	Independence Day: Resurgence	$147,000	-21%	156	-9	$942	$102,553,957	8	Fox
8	Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates	$101,000	-64%	139	-158	$727	$45,373,453	6

[ecstasy]

2 hours ago, Nova said:

@Tele the Jet Balleris that you? 

LOL at boxorrifice.

[a2k]

NYSM2 has been the silent fart of the summer.

Quiet but deadly.

Domestic:	$64,757,449	20.7%
+ Foreign:	$247,643,332	79.3%
= Worldwide:	$312,400,781

90M budget; >2.9x dom multiplier.

[ecstasy]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

NYSM2 has been the silent fart of the summer.

Quiet but deadly.

Domestic:	$64,757,449	20.7%
+ Foreign:	$247,643,332	79.3%
= Worldwide:	$312,400,781

90M budget; >2.9x dom multiplier.

Well look at that. These are the little things that make box office so interesting to me. Thx for posting.

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

NYSM2 has been the silent fart of the summer.

Quiet but deadly.

Domestic:	$64,757,449	20.7%
+ Foreign:	$247,643,332	79.3%
= Worldwide:	$312,400,781

90M budget; >2.9x dom multiplier.

The OS result is ridiculous. Just make a sequel and set it up in London and China. 

[filmnerdjamie]

While I was mixed on Sausage Party, there's no denying it's a film that needs to be experienced with an audience. I can't see it not going to #1 next weekend and staying there for the remainder of the summer. 

 

And Pete's Dragon is a simple of case of Disney having way too much stock and having to put it... somewhere! Doesn't help matters that remaking it was always questionable. The original wasn't a big hit (made during their Dark Ages between Disney himself dying and Eisner/Katzenberg taking over) and only remembered by those of us who saw it on heavy rotation on the Disney Channel back in the day. So any IP value was never truly there, similar to the iffy decision to make a sequel to Tron and now this development with a new Rocketeer, and I say that as someone who loves the latter.

[fmpro]

18 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

SPAGHETTI'S WEEKEND PROJECTIONS

1. Suicide Squad (Warner Bros.) - $45,100,000 (-66.3%) - $10,599 PTA - $224,205,000 - 2
2. Sausage Party (Sony / Columbia) - $32,000,000 (--) - $10,312 PTA - $32,000,000 - NEW
3. Pete's Dragon (Disney) - $20,300,000 (--) - $5,455 PTA - $20,200,000 - NEW
4. Jason Bourne (Universal) - $13,300,000 (-40.7%) - $3,770 PTA - $126,462,000 - 3
5. Bad Moms (STX) - $11,300,000 (-19.3%) - $3,545 PTA - $71,311,000 - 3
6. The Secret Life of Pets (Universal) - $9,000,000 (-21.7%) - $3,042 PTA - $336,102,000 - 6
7. Star Trek Beyond (Paramount) - $6,700,000 (-33.2%) - $2,600 PTA - $139,580,000 - 4
8. Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount) - $6,400,000 (--) - $4,188 PTA - $6,400,00 - NEW
9. Nine Lives (EuropaCorp) - $3,550,000 (-43.2%) - $1,568 PTA - $13,601,000 - 2
10. Lights Out (Warner Bros. / New Line) - $3,100,000 (-48.4%) - $1,877 PTA - $61,015,000 - 4

• Nerve (Lionsgate) - $2,700,000 (-44.5%) - $1,519 PTA - $33,148,000 - 3
• Ghostbusters (Sony / Columbia) - $2,300,000 (-50.8%) - $1,601 PTA - $121,709,000 - 5
• Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox) - $1,950,000 (-54.9%) - $1,260 PTA - $58,624,000 - 4
• Finding Dory (Disney) - $1,450,000 (-25.9%) - $2,298 PTA - $476,863,000 - 9
• Cafe Society (Lionsgate) - $950,000 (-40.8%) - $2,088 PTA - $8,493,000 - 5
• Hell or High Water (Lionsgate) - $625,000 (--) - $19,531 PTA - $625,000 - NEW
• Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party (Quality Flix) - $315,000 (-66.1%) - $963 PTA - $12,005,000 - 5
• The BFG (Disney) - $280,000 (-5.4%) - $1,451 PTA - $53,311,000 - 7
• The Jungle Book (Disney) - $185,000 (-14.7%) - $995 PTA - $362,986,000 - 18
• Captain America: Civil War (Disney) - $180,000 (-13.5%) - $1,111 PTA - $407,509,000 - 15
• Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) - $145,000 (-22%) - $930 PTA - $102,552,000 - 8
• Gleason (Open Road) - $140,000 (+25%) - $946 PTA - $456,000 - 3
• Now You See Me 2 (Lionsgate / Summit) - $130,000 (+154.9%) - $861 PTA - $64,853,000 - 10
• Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie (Fox Searchlight) - $110,000 (-67%) - $1,209 PTA - $4,448,000 - 4
• Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (Fox) - $105,000 (-62.1%) - $755 PTA - $45,377,000 - 6
• Alice Through the Looking Glass - $52,500 (-44.2%) - $610 PTA - $76,965,000 - 12

SPAGHETTI'S WEEKEND OBSERVATIONS

• Suicide Squad is still on track to blow past $300m. It should stabilize somewhat after next weekend, and BvS is definitely within solid reach, especially with summer weekdays still holding up, albeit not as strongly.
• Sausage Party is off to a strong start, but seems like it could fall victim to frontloading. While $100m will be a tough battle, it is not out of the question, and even an $80m+ finish for this is excellent, considering the fates of many R-rated animated films. Likely enough for Sony to give Rogen forgiveness for the Interview debacle. 
• Between Pete's Dragon, as well as The BFG and The Jungle Book, Disney is trying to set up a "sweet, kind, orphan human taken in by non-human entity" Cinematic Universe. Sadly, Pete was closer to the former than the latter, but its relatively smaller budget should offset some of the big damage. Even so, the marketing never made it seem like a major family event.
• Bad Moms' hold in the face of another R-rated comedy was pretty tremendous. It looks like the film will cross $100m when all is said and done, making for another really nice late summer breakout.
• Star Trek Beyond finally had a good hold, but it sadly seems to be too little, too late. At least it should be able to get ahead of Apocalypse.
• Despite a good hold this weekend, $500m for Finding Dory has been dead and gone for a while - its projected $480-490m is hardly something to shake a stick at, however.
• Hell or High Water is off to a strong start for a late August indie. With strong reviews and opportunities for future expansion, a $10m+ total is very much possible.

 

Can't see SS past 300 atp.. Big drops still to come. OMG what a bad movie. HUUUUUGE potential and amazingly bad executed..

My 12 year old loved it though. But in perspective he also said the latest Ice Age was the best in the series

[BluRayHiDef]

20 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Fairly easily.

Will be around 71.5M after this weekend of 11.5M.

 

~86M by next weekend.

(Last Mon-Thu it made ~9M. So say 30% down to 6.25M the coming Mon-Thu + 30% down to 8.25M over the next weekend = 14.5 + 71.5 = 86M)

 

~96M  the weekend after.

(10M week, a 30% decline from previous week of 14.5M)

 

The following weekend it will cruise through 100M.

IMO can't see below 110M.

 

Just goes to show how important legs are. It's not just about OW.

[a2k]

13.35 (+62.8%) + 18.45 (+38.2%) + 13.21 (-28.4%) = 45.01M (-66.33%) ; 224.11M 10-day

[boxofficeth]

5 minutes ago, BluRayHiDef said:

 

Just goes to show how important legs are. It's not just about OW.

 

Moms' leg is looking handsome. Love it! In the summer full with short legs this is truly impressive.

[parkerthegreat]

Come on @fmpro, it's only gotta make $75m more after a $45m weekend. It will make it, though probably just squeaking past it. Labor Day will be the extra help it needs to get there. 

Edited August 13, 2016 by parkerthegreat