Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[Brainiac5]

@RichWS

I'm addressing those who didn't like the movie that's making up thier own math to prove the movie is a failure.

It makes no sense which so ever.

This is boxoffice talk not Here's my personal feelings talk.

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, Brainiac5 said:

@RichWS

I'm addressing those who didn't like the movie that's making up thier own math to prove the movie is a failure.

It makes no sense which so ever.

This is boxoffice talk not Here's my personal feelings talk.

It is not a financial failure no matter how you do the math or your opinion of the film

[RichWS]

1 minute ago, Brainiac5 said:

@RichWS

I'm addressing those who didn't like the movie that's making up thier own math to prove the movie is a failure.

It makes no sense which so ever.

This is boxoffice talk not Here's my personal feelings talk.

 

 

Who is saying it's a financial failure?

 

WAIT. Don't bother responding. 

[Blankments]

21 hours ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

Yeah.

I thought you hated David Yates??

[CJohn]

The movie is gonna reach 300M. It won't suffer a brutal 65% drop on his 4th weekend because no Jungle Book and on his 5th weekend Labor Day will give it a boost. I can see it reaching 300M Godzilla style. 

[RichWS]

1 minute ago, Blankments said:

I thought you hated David Yates??

 

Who?

[Haley Ross]

25 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Not if you see how much the weekdays are taking away from the weekend right now as opposed to 1st week of Summer and March:

 

OW & 1st Weekdays:

BVS 166.0 & 43.1

CW 179.1 & 44.2

SS 133.7 & 45.3

 

That's why I did a 10-day to OW comparison, and SS is a bit better than CW.

 

Civil War was a far better received movie than Suicide Squad. If it's already facing a greater drop than Civil War is in it's second week regardless of it's first week numbers, it's going to fall even more as the weeks go on. For instance, it has been beating Guardians of the Galaxy at virtually every turn this past week. However thanks to the weekend numbers Suicide Squad is going to get this weekend, it has already lost any chance of surpassing Guardians of the Galaxy's domestic total.

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, Blankments said:

I thought you hated David Yates??

NuTella liked Legend of Tarzan 

[baumer]

54 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Anything less than Deadpool for Suicide Squad is embarrassing. Remember, the producers said SS HAD to be pg13 in order to made cash. So making less than an R rated simulaorly themed movie is humiliating.

 

Either you're trolling or just very misinformed. I'm hoping it's the latter. 

[Lordmandeep]

Lol the issue with SS is not it's box office...

It's the film itself lol

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

Anything less than Deadpool for Suicide Squad is embarrassing. Remember, the producers said SS HAD to be pg13 in order to made cash. So making less than an R rated simulaorly themed movie is humiliating.

 

[ecstasy]

My DC fans are a sensitive bunch. Just think if Suicide Squad got the hatred that IM3 received around here. There was no "poisoning the well" cautionary rules in place and it was a free for all. There was a lot of contempt and mockery of its "bad legs" going on here. Not sure why DC movies should be exempt. Comes with the territory of being a member here. It's a given that there's gonna be some gloating, mocking and ribbing mixed in with the box office analysis. It's supposed to be all in fun.

[baumer]

7 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Lol the issue with SS is not it's box office...

It's the film itself lol

 

You know what? I think this is the first time you mentioned this. I don't think you've ever said this before.

[ecstasy]

Oh and ASM2 got skewered worse than any movie on here.

[UrosepsisFace]

Guys, Suicide Squad dropped 79.4% from Friday to Friday. That's terrible. For example, other movies that have done this poorly:

 

1. Captain America: Civil War -74%

2. Twilight Series ~75%

3 The Dark Knight Rises -76.6%

4. Batman v Superman -81.6%

5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 -84%

 

What do those movies all have in common? Toxic word of mouth? I was going to say huge previews on Thursday, built-in fan base, and all that jazz, but nah...toxic word of mouth it is. 

 

Also, another interesting point to ignore, Suicide Squad had crazy Thursday preview numbers AND Tmobile Free Ticket Fridays. Sure, the major drops seem to be associated in comparison to that first Friday, which just so happened to be special in at least two ways, but hey, let's forget that, and project the anomalies into generalities, just like the best numerical analysts.

 

So to continue its flop status, like such other flops, Suicide Squad could do anywhere between 15m -21m Saturday, depending if it's WOM is like Twilight or if it's like Dark Knight Rises. Can't wait to find out!

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

Oh and ASM2 got skewered worse than any movie on here.

 

All those who were skewering ASM2 were no match combined for one, captain, jack, sparrow. 

[ecstasy]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

All those who were skewering ASM2 were no match combined for one, captain, jack, sparrow. 

 

Good Times!

[UrosepsisFace]

54 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Not if you see how much the weekdays are taking away from the weekend right now as opposed to 1st week of Summer and March:

 

OW & 1st Weekdays:

BVS 166.0 & 43.1

CW 179.1 & 44.2

SS 133.7 & 45.3

 

That's why I did a 10-day to OW comparison, and SS is a bit better than CW.

 

 

 

 

Even with 10 day comparison it's still wonky because Deadpool had a 4 day weekend and Apoc had 4 day weekend and many schools being on vacation. Suicide Squad had had summer weekdays. Civil War had the final week of many institutions of higher learning and subsequent vacation. Batman had Easter and possible Spring Break for a portion of the nation. All had very different circumstances and therefore not a fair playing field. Hard to compare in such situations.

[Jason]

Some of you may recall four weeks ago (2nd week of Pets) @Baumer loves Dory suggested looking at the entire 2nd week vs the OW instead of just the 2nd weekend drop vs the OW for summer films, the rationale being that summer films earn a substantial portion of their gross during the week. I made some graphs (original post here) to compare the relationship between the final OW multiplier vs. 2nd weekend/OW, 2nd week/OW, and a combination of both. To make predictions for Suicide Squad, I've now updated those graphs, focusing on summer films only and adding black circles to show CBMs.

 

The dataset is the same as used in the original graphs, films with a Friday release that appear on the OW, 2nd weekend, and 10-day total lists, excluding Avatar and current releases. These graphs show summer films only (N=41). A film is classified as a CBM if it appears on BOM's CBM list (N=15).

 

Here is the graph comparing the multiplier and the ratio of the 2nd weekend to the opening weekend:

It's possible that the relationship for CBMs is different than that of summer films in general, but the set of CBMs isn't large enough to justify a separate mathematical analysis. However, there doesn't appear to be a consistent difference between CBMs and other summer films. Using the weekend estimate of $44M for Suicide Squad, the 2nd weekend/OW = 0.33. Based on visual inspection of this graph, that suggests a most probable multiplier of 2.1-2.3, for a final gross of $281M to $307M.

 

Here is the graph comparing the multiplier and the ratio of the full 2nd week (Mon-Sun) to the opening weekend:

Again, there doesn't appear to be a difference between CBMs and other summer films. Using the weekend estimate of $44M for Suicide Squad, the 2nd week/OW = 0.67. Based on visual inspection of this graph, that suggests a most probable multiplier of 2.3-2.5, for a final gross of $307M to $334M.

 

Here is the graph that compares the multiplier to the simple unweighted average of the 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW ratios:

The combined metric of 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW has a stronger correlation than either of the metrics alone, P=0.14, that falls short of the usual standard of statistical significance (P<0.05) but I think is still worth considering for these purposes. Here CBMs are mostly quite close to the general trendline, with the obvious exception being Guardians of the Galaxy. Using the weekend estimate of $44M for Suicide Squad, the combined metric = 0.50. By visual inspection, that suggests a most probable multiplier of 2.2-2.4, for a final gross of $294M to $321M.

 

Overall, I think it's more likely than not that Suicide Squad will cross $300M, although probably not by much.

[ecstasy]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

Some of you may recall four weeks ago (2nd week of Pets) @Baumer loves Dory suggested looking at the entire 2nd week vs the OW instead of just the 2nd weekend drop vs the OW for summer films, the rationale being that summer films earn a substantial portion of their gross during the week. I made some graphs (original post here) to compare the relationship between the final OW multiplier vs. 2nd weekend/OW, 2nd week/OW, and a combination of both. To make predictions for Suicide Squad, I've now updated those graphs, focusing on summer films only and adding black circles to show CBMs.

 

The dataset is the same as used in the original graphs, films with a Friday release that appear on the OW, 2nd weekend, and 10-day total lists, excluding Avatar and current releases. These graphs show summer films only (N=41). A film is classified as a CBM if it appears on BOM's CBM list (N=15).

 

Here is the graph comparing the multiplier and the ratio of the 2nd weekend to the opening weekend:

It's possible that the relationship for CBMs is different than that of summer films in general, but the set of CBMs isn't large enough to justify a separate mathematical analysis. However, there doesn't appear to be a consistent difference between CBMs and other summer films. Using the weekend estimate of $44M for Suicide Squad, the 2nd weekend/OW = 0.33. Based on visual inspection of this graph, that suggests a most probable multiplier of 2.1-2.3, for a final gross of $281M to $307M.

 

Here is the graph comparing the multiplier and the ratio of the full 2nd week (Mon-Sun) to the opening weekend:

Again, there doesn't appear to be a difference between CBMs and other summer films. Using the weekend estimate of $44M for Suicide Squad, the 2nd week/OW = 0.67. Based on visual inspection of this graph, that suggests a most probable multiplier of 2.3-2.5, for a final gross of $307M to $334M.

 

Here is the graph that compares the multiplier to the simple unweighted average of the 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW ratios:

The combined metric of 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW has a stronger correlation than either of the metrics alone, P=0.14, that falls short of the usual standard of statistical significance (P<0.05) but I think is still worth considering for these purposes. Here CBMs are mostly quite close to the general trendline, with the obvious exception being Guardians of the Galaxy. Using the weekend estimate of $44M for Suicide Squad, the combined metric = 0.50. By visual inspection, that suggests a most probable multiplier of 2.2-2.4, for a final gross of $294M to $321M.

 

Overall, I think it's more likely than not that Suicide Squad will cross $300M, although probably not by much.

Impressive!