DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 07.26.2024 | Disney | latest trailer on page 76

[Spidey Freak]

3 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

If this one is even remotely good, I can actually see it hit the billion dollar mark, which would be the first time a pure Marvel movie gets there in half a decade.

 

Why is No Way Home not a "pure" Marvel movie? Its success along with the Spider-Verse films is literally the blueprint for this movie.

Edited January 20 by Spidey Freak

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Why is No Way Home not a "pure" Marvel movie? Its success along with the Spider-Verse films is literally the blueprint for this movie.

I'm referring to that being distributed by Sony, while the rest of the lineup is distributed by Disney. In that sense, the last billion dollar Marvel movie released by Disney was Endgame back in 2019.

[Maggie]

whoa

 

 

[SpiderByte]

Yeah he's been posting lots of vids with him and his trainer. Its some impressive stuff.

[TMP]

14 hours ago, Maggie said:

whoa

 

 

Does he just not train legs haha

[HummingLemon496]

My current prediction for this (if it earns an A like GOTG 3/NWH and lot a B like MoM/QM) is $115M/$300M/$700M. It would've been an easy $200M/$525M/$1175M if released in May 2022.

 

The reason is brand damage from Multiverse of Madness, Love and Thunder, Quantumania, and now The Marvels. Guardians opened to $118M in May 2023.. . which is bad, really bad. But it would've easily opened to $200M+ and done $500M+ total back in May 2022. 

 

It's crazy how much damage 3 B range grades can do to a franchise.

Edited January 21 by HummingLemon496

[SpiderByte]

The circumstances are nothing like Guardians for several reasons, a big one being there's almost no competition.

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

The circumstances are nothing like Guardians for several reasons, a big one being there's almost no competition.

Guardians was the first major movie since Mario and it still opened low (although it's not the movie's fault at all)

 

FYI I'm not against this movie at all. Just, as someone who thought Guardians was locked for $175M+ opening weekend I'm being realistic. 

Edited January 21 by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

The circumstances are nothing like Guardians for several reasons, a big one being there's almost no competition.

Yeah i laugh at this DP 3 pessimism. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

7 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

My current prediction for this (if it earns an A like GOTG 3/NWH and lot a B like MoM/QM) is $115M/$300M/$700M. It would've been an easy $200M/$525M/$1175M if released in May 2022.

 

The reason is brand damage from Multiverse of Madness, Love and Thunder, Quantumania, and now The Marvels. Guardians opened to $118M in May 2023.. . which is bad, really bad. But it would've easily opened to $200M+ and done $500M+ total back in May 2022. 

 

It's crazy how much damage 3 B range grades can do to a franchise.

I get where you're coming from, but this movie has a fantastic selling point in Ryan Reynolds's Deadpool finally meeting Hugh Jackman's iconic Wolverine, two characters who are institutions of their own, who can thrive even when the larger Marvel universe is in decay. Just look at how the standalone Batman and Joker movies, which are based on similarly huge characters, performed compared to the mainline DC movies of the past 5 years. That factor will help it greatly. As long as the movie lives up to the first two Deadpool adventures, it has a decent shot at being Disney's first billion dollar Marvel movie since Endgame back in 2019.

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I get where you're coming from, but this movie has a fantastic selling point in Ryan Reynolds's Deadpool finally meeting Hugh Jackman's iconic Wolverine, two characters who are institutions of their own, who can thrive even when the larger Marvel universe is in decay. Just look at how the standalone Batman and Joker movies, which are based on similarly huge characters, performed compared to the mainline DC movies of the past 5 years. That factor will help it greatly. As long as the movie lives up to the first two Deadpool adventures, it has a decent shot at being Disney's first billion dollar Marvel movie since Endgame back in 2019.

This is very true.

 

If you add up all DCEU 2023 domestic totals, it's ~$359M (assuming Aquaman finishes at $120M) which is less than The Batman's $369M. Batman's $134M opening beats 4/4 DCEU 2023 domestic totals. 

 

But yeah, I *really* damn hope that Deadpool III can work as its own standalone thing and explode regardless of the state the MCU is in right now.

 

But, yeah, I'm still hesitant because of GOTG 3's poor opening weekend. If a movie with great reception which is a finale to a team of characters who are very popular only opens to $118M (which would've opened to $200M+ if released a year earlier), then I feel like all bets off with this phase.

 

A Deadpool/Wolverine crossover will have to pay for the sins of a bad Doctor Strange, Thor, and Ant-Man film

 

And honestly, there's a chance the film itself could be bad. I wouldn't be a surprised if this movie is a complete mess, earns a 45/B, and does a $105M --> $215M domestic run like Quantumania. It's crazy how Marvel had one of the most impressive saga build ups with the Infinity Saga followed by one of the most violent collapses ever with the multiverse saga. Just one and a half years ago we had solo Doctor Strange films opening to $185M+ which is almost as much as the first two Avengers movies, but now Marvel is the founder of one of the biggest box office bombs of all time.
 

Edited January 22 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

Is "Deadpool 3" the actual title or is it just a placeholder and we'll get the full title with the trailer?

[BadOlCatSylvester]

26 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Is "Deadpool 3" the actual title or is it just a placeholder and we'll get the full title with the trailer?

It's seemingly the latter, as Disney's official release schedule refers to it as "Untitled Deadpool Movie", or something like that. Eerily similar to how Fox didn't give out a final title for Deadpool 2 for the longest of time.

[Hatebox]

Has this now wrapped or are they just filming it forever? 

[SpiderByte]

2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Is "Deadpool 3" the actual title or is it just a placeholder and we'll get the full title with the trailer?

It's a temporary title. Based on what Levy, Reynolds and Jackman have said it sounds like it'll be some variation of "Deadpool and Wolverine".

 

1 hour ago, Hatebox said:

Has this now wrapped or are they just filming it forever? 

They're still filming but reportedly wrap in the next couple weeks.

[YM!]

14 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

The circumstances are nothing like Guardians for several reasons, a big one being there's almost no competition.

Guardians 3 had no competition on the lead up, and thanks to good WOM legged it to a solid total. Mario was dying down and tbh if it weren’t for the last minute WOM/reviews, it was looking for a sub 110m OW. If anything one could argue, DP3 has slightly more on the lead up.

 

Think Wolverine gives it a boost but it won’t be as big as some fans hoped, Logan was the swan song during peak CBM times and it still did about the same as other X-Men movies and even then X-Men box office wise was never as big as Spider-Man movies. Another boost could be I think the recent CBM cynicism might help the movie due to the comedic satire vs hinder but as of rn, even when the trailer blows up due to fan craze, I still don’t think that we should go gung-ho on OW because of not just the R rating but also I think OW will depend very much on WOM/reviews (don’t think 200m opening was even happening during 2021-2022 hypothetical). Shawn Levy is a good journeyman though so who knows. Thinking around 125-150m OW, the rest depends on legs. Feel like at absolute best, maybe 170m if the marketing campaign is aces/if reviews are raves/if WOM is strong amongst the GA+nerds. A lot of variables need to go right for this to be the behemoth and as of rn, I would rather be realistic than optimistic.

Edited January 22 by YM!

[Spidey Freak]

GotG3 is not the comparison. Infinity War did a number on Star-Lord's goodwill. Also, it was way too close to Quantumania whose bombage stink was still fresh at the time. 

 

This will be Wolverine's first appearance after Logan. And as of now, it still looks to be the most anticipated film of the year.

[WittyUsername]

3 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

GotG3 is not the comparison. Infinity War did a number on Star-Lord's goodwill. Also, it was way too close to Quantumania whose bombage stink was still fresh at the time. 

 

This will be Wolverine's first appearance after Logan. And as of now, it still looks to be the most anticipated film of the year.

Somehow I doubt that people chose to stay home because they were mad at a fictional character over a five year old movie. 

[Hades]

The more they downplay the MCU connection in the trailers, the better the opening weekend.

[YM!]

31 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

GotG3 is not the comparison. Infinity War did a number on Star-Lord's goodwill. Also, it was way too close to Quantumania whose bombage stink was still fresh at the time. 

 

This will be Wolverine's first appearance after Logan. And as of now, it still looks to be the most anticipated film of the year.

Tbh, I think the disappointment in the past MCU projects or even disappoint in GoTG not having much in LaT is morr realistic than IW disappointment. Do think there is clear excitement for Wolverine’s return but I’m not sure even with the seven year wait from Logan if its enough, as The Flash (although not an apt comparison at all as Jackman is wayyyyyyy more relevant than BatKeaton in the modern age) proved that wait time and nostalgia may not be enough.

 

 

I just don’t think it will be the 450/1B that fans are hoping for, more like 350/800m considering where the MCU and CBMs are at rn. Think like IO2, it and DP3 are the most likely biggest films of the year but everything must go right for them. One little slip can stop either from reaching full potential.

Edited January 22 by YM!