DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 07.26.2024 | Disney | latest trailer on page 76

[ChipDerby]

LMAO at saying that because of Guardians good audience reception that THAT'S why it opened over $100 mil. LMAO. Just a complete lack of box office knowledge.

[SpiderByte]

Why is everyone using Thor and Guardians and Ant Man as points of comparison but not, y'know, the actual Deadpool movies.

[YM!]

Yeah sub 100m for DP3 won’t happen barring a botched marketing campaign and truly toxic WOM. Think the range for it is 120-160m which is where the first two opened, leaning moreso towards 130-140m. Not sold on 150m being a lock quite yet but it’s probably our best bet this year. Anything over 175m is unrealistic due to R rating and the MCU currently having brand issues.

Edited January 23 by YM!

[Mad Max007]

Few years ago everyone would have used Logan($620M) and Deadpool 2($785M) to claim this is an easy $1B grossing movie! But anything above $800M is a win for this one in the current scenario. The Deadpool movies are liked by GA who aren't even super into CBMs plus with Hugh the OG returning there will be tons of hype.

[Speedorito]

13 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Oh my God why are you so insistent on comparing this to Guardians 3, a movie that did not do below 100 OW anyways 

I think Guardians is just one of their favorites, which is why they can’t shut up about it.

[SpiderByte]

34 minutes ago, Mad Max007 said:

Few years ago everyone would have used Logan($620M) and Deadpool 2($785M) to claim this is an easy $1B grossing movie! But anything above $800M is a win for this one in the current scenario. The Deadpool movies are liked by GA who aren't even super into CBMs plus with Hugh the OG returning there will be tons of hype.

Logan and Deadpool are much better comparisons. Comparing a hard R X-Men movie to Thor Love and Thunder doesn't work

[HummingLemon496]

The internet 1000% is going to EXPLODE when the trailer drops, even though I'm 100% in the "Deadpool will underperform" club 

 

 

 

Edited January 24 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

On 7/8/2023 at 4:04 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Under. I'm expecting a billion dollar film, but not much higher than that. Probably an opening close to MoM but with stronger legs 

No way this opens like Multiverse of Madness.. . 

 

Multiverse of Madness was in May 2022, which was right after NWH and still when the Marvel brand was in peak hype. It was before the 1-2-3 punch of Multiverse of Madness + Thor 4 + Quantumania which damaged a lot of goodwill

 

and it was PG-13

[SpiderByte]

18 hours ago, YM! said:

Anything over 175m is unrealistic due to R

We've long, long since passed the "R rating means it can't make money" threshold

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

We've long, long since passed the "R rating means it can't make money" threshold

What R-Rated films have opened over $175m? Without <18 crowd, it remains to be seen if any R Rated film can open that high.

 

Every movie opening over that threshold had lots of kids watching it.

[PlatnumRoyce]

3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

What R-Rated films have opened over $175m? Without <18 crowd, it remains to be seen if any R Rated film can open that high.

 

Every movie opening over that threshold had lots of kids watching it.

Deadpool 1 had the under-18 crowd. It was remarked upon as having a very weird audience profile. Deadpool 3 is nearly a decade later so that buzz may not hold but that's basically how you have an R rated movie have an insane OW

[YM!]

2 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

We've long, long since passed the "R rating means it can't make money" threshold

I had another reason added on there in that current malaise over CBMs last year alongside the mixed reception of MCU phase 4/5 but I just don’t think 175m+ is realistic right now. Also, a 120-160m opening is still quite a bit of money and near the lower-mid range and beyond, it takes the record. Shit, even if it does 160-175m, that’s still fucking great.
 

Sure, Deadpool 1 adjusts to 170/195m on the holiday weekend but CBMs were in a different place then and I do think there’s some capacity issues that our box office is still having. Even then, that’s the only real example we have for R-rated openers. I don’t think even with a likely sizable trailer blowup, it’s realistic to gung ho quite just yet.

Edited January 24 by YM!

[SpiderByte]

41 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Deadpool 1 had the under-18 crowd. It was remarked upon as having a very weird audience profile. Deadpool 3 is nearly a decade later so that buzz may not hold but that's basically how you have an R rated movie have an insane OW

Yep. It has been a while but part of Deadpools success is that it was more 4 quadrant than a typical R rating. Even if they aren't actually under 18 now that audience is still there. With a bigger budget and Wolverine? There's a lot of potential here, and I think when the trailer hits we'll see it.

[emoviefan]

Not sure why some around here are so resistant to the idea that the GA/casuals can separate Deadpool 3 from their current feelings about the CBM genre. As long as it still is a Deadpool movie in style and tone. Now if it is just sold as deadpool and Logan join the MCU and makes the same mistakes they have been making yeah it will not be pretty. No reason to think it cant open in the150-175 million range and with good WOM, and a weak looking August save for maybe Alien Romulus another Fox transplant, have pretty dam good legs. 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Macleod]

Six months (or less) for visual effects, post, and any needed reshoots!  Should be great!  

[WittyUsername]

1 hour ago, Macleod said:

Six months (or less) for visual effects, post, and any needed reshoots!  Should be great!  

They apparently prioritized building actual sets, so I’m assuming the amount of work they’d need to do in post won’t be that significant. Plus, they had managed to get a lot of filming done before the strikes. 

[crazymoviekid]

1 hour ago, WittyUsername said:

They apparently prioritized building actual sets, so I’m assuming the amount of work they’d need to do in post won’t be that significant. Plus, they had managed to get a lot of filming done before the strikes. 

They managed to shoot a majority during the writers strike, during a time when the star, a known improviser, cannot improvise. 😬😬

[WittyUsername]

2 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

They managed to shoot a majority during the writers strike, during a time when the star, a known improviser, cannot improvise. 😬😬

Deadpool wears a mask that covers his mouth. They can just do ADR. 

[TMP]

5 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Deadpool wears a mask that covers his mouth. They can just do ADR. 

You have a crazy amount of faith in this movie considering you’re normally an even bigger cynic than me haha