Weekend numbers. Moana 28.3 | FB 18.5 | Arrival 7.3 | Allied 7 | DS 6.8 | Trolls 4.6 | Hacksaw 3.4

[Mojoguy]

It's worth nothing that a movie set in one of the hottest climates in the world still managed $450m adjusted with a November release.

That movie came out 24 years ago, it might has well been a life time ago in terms of boxoffice.

[grey ghost]

People are disappointed in Moana's WW prospects but they forget on three out of ten WDAS movies made over 600 m and only two out of ten made over 660 m.

[Mojoguy]

I'd prefer to accentuate the positive that Moana is still going to rake in a lot of dough. If someone needs an excuse to only do movies about white people, they're going to find it somewhere.

Only Tangled and Frozen have had white leads during this WDAS Revival.

Bolt, Pooh, and Zootopia had talking animal leads
PATF, BH6, Moana had POC
WIR had video game characters

Gigantic is coming up, and they are going to make Jack Spanish even though its based on an English fairy tale. I don't really have an issue with that. But what's the opposite of white washing?

Edited December 5, 2016 by Mojoguy

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

That movie came out 24 years ago, it might has well been a life time ago in terms of boxoffice.

 

What, you think people are somehow more sensitive to how timely the weather in their movies is now?

 

Even if that's the case theoretically they should be more open to warm weather movies in November with global warming

[Jonwo]

Moana doing $600-650m WW would still be great, to have two successful animated films both critically and commercially in the same year is brilliant, BH6 wasn't considered a disappointment box office wise so Moana shouldn't be either. 

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I feel like if it did have a summer release there'd be people saying it should've been a holiday release because it's a musical. Wherever it landed I don't expect it would've been able to challenge Frozen. If competition is the reason people think it can't match that movie's legs, it definitely would've still been an issue in the summer

The most successful Disney musical of all time was a June release. Pocahontas and Tarzan are both 300m+ adjusted June releases as well. I don't understand why people think these WDAS musicals can only be big during the holiday? I think Moana screams summer just as much as Frozen screamed winter. It's not crazy to say Frozen wouldn't have made as much in the summer, so I don't think it's crazy to say Moana wouldn't make as much in the winter either. Nothing next summer would have put up much of a fight for direct competition. Cars 3 isn't a lock for even 200. We had a near 400m and a near 500m animated grossers this past summer. Would it have beaten Frozen? Who knows? But I think 300+ would have been locked, which is more than we can say right now. 

Edited December 5, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Mango]

It definitely doesn't matter what time a year a movie is released what matters is competition and word of mouth. Obviously with movies that are holiday centric it fits, but very few if any of these movies you guys are talking about fit that bill.

 

Frozen might have had a wintery setting but it probably could have made just as much had it released the following June. 

 

The fact is animation this year has already been seat filling. Three animated movies before Moana already broke $300 million. If Moana was the sole animated release of the year it probably would have easily done that.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Mango

[MovieMan89]

Frozen would have been a tough sell in the summer. It may have had the same WOM, but the opening surely would have been smaller. 

[Jonwo]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The most successful Disney musical of all time was a June release. Pocahontas and Tarzan are both 300m+ adjusted June releases as well. I don't understand why people think these WDAS musicals can only be big during the holiday? I think Moana screams summer just as much as Frozen screamed winter. It's not crazy to say Frozen wouldn't have made as much in the summer, so I don't think it's crazy to say Moana wouldn't make as much in the winter either. Nothing next summer would have put up much of a fight for direct competition. Cars 3 isn't a lock for even 200. We had a near 400m and a near 500m animated grossers this past summer. Would it have beaten Frozen? Who knows? But I think 300+ would have been locked, which is more than we can say right now. 

 

Pixar likely isn't going to give up the summer slot to WDAS anytime soon so WDAS films will likely be March or November. 

 

 

[AniNate]

I generally run on the idea that Disney knows what they're doing a lot better than we do. Frozen did great exactly where it was, so no point speculating on that. Moana might've done well in the summer but I don't think it would've been a "lock" for 300m. All it would take would be an underwhelming opening for the knee-jerk "musicals should be in the holiday season!" reactions

[Jonwo]

I've alway wondered how Bond would fare if it was released in summer, License to Kill was the last summer Bond film in 1989 and since Goldeneye they've been November releases with the exception of Tomorrow never Dies which was December. I suspect whoever gets the Bond distribution rights will stick to November rather than risk a summer release. 

[MovieMan89]

32 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Pixar likely isn't going to give up the summer slot to WDAS anytime soon so WDAS films will likely be March or November. 

 

 

Which I'm guessing is the biggest reason Moana wasn't a summer '17 release. 

[AniNate]

Disney may have had big hits in the summer before but recently they've been having more success in the fall, so I expect Moana would've been here regardless of Cars 3's existence. It's like how Star Wars all of a sudden has to be a winter release even though it was always summer before The Force Awakens blew up. And if Disney had to move a movie to the summer they probably would've gone with Zootopia

Edited December 5, 2016 by tribefan695

[Jonwo]

Just now, tribefan695 said:

Disney may have had big hits in the summer before but recently they've been having more success in the fall, so I expect Moana would've been here regardless of Cars 3's existence. It's like how Star Wars all of a sudden has to be a winter release even though it was always summer before The Force Awakens blew up

 

I suspect Han Solo will remain a summer release due to Avatar 2, Episode IX I expect will be a December release but other SW films will alternate between summer and December.

[AniNate]

As far as other movies, seems like Jackie had a pretty solid opening and MBTS expanded really well losing less than half PTA on over double expansion. I think it'll find a receptive audience in wide release. 

[cannastop]

53 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Pixar likely isn't going to give up the summer slot to WDAS anytime soon so WDAS films will likely be March or November. 

 

 

Is that really Pixar's decision?

[MovieMan89]

14 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Disney may have had big hits in the summer before but recently they've been having more success in the fall, so I expect Moana would've been here regardless of Cars 3's existence. It's like how Star Wars all of a sudden has to be a winter release even though it was always summer before The Force Awakens blew up. And if Disney had to move a movie to the summer they probably would've gone with Zootopia

They haven't tried a Revival musical in the summer, so you can't say they have more success with one release frame when the other is untested. Summer worked fine during the Renaissance, it would work fine now too. The problem is summer is pretty much reserved for Pixar for them. 

[AniNate]

Summer might work fine, but holiday does work fine, and until WDA has a flop in the fall they'll slot their movies there every chance they get.

Edited December 5, 2016 by tribefan695

[fnitte]

I do think people would be more inclined to go and see Frozen during the Winter and Moana during the Summer for the same reason that people like to watch Christmas movies only in December or why the 'song of the Summer' is always an upbeat, Summery sounding pop song and people like Adele release in the Winter. People like consuming entertainment that is similar to the environment they're currently in.

 

It's clearly not the only deciding factor in whether a movie does well or not, but I do think it has a certain level of influence. Moana would not have done Frozen numbers whenever it was released though.

Edited December 5, 2016 by fnitte

[NYer4Life]

Speaking of movies with great seasonal timing...

 

Titanic's December/winter release could be argued a perfect fit for the icy cold environment depicted in the movie's climatic end.

 

Titanic was also originally set to have a summer release; wonder if that would of had an impact seasonally speaking.