ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, James said:

All my updates come from things posted in the international thread. I re-post everything that is there. You can ask @juni78ukr for the source since he is the bigshot when it comes to Russian BO. 

I already did thank you

It was about is it in the OS film thread or in the Russian thread or in the OS FB thread, people post not always where another one might expect it. Plus the person who took the time to post that (juni78ukr) get's to see that the work was not in vain

edit: plus people quote sometimes only details out of a bigger context, that too can change the picture.

 

I already found and asked, now aiting for the answer, but is seems to be early anyway.

Edited December 15, 2016 by terrestrial

[DeeCee]

TFA had an opening day of AUD9.42m. I always expected the first day would have a bigger drop of around 50% then the rest of the opening weekend. The rest of the weekend for TFA was AUD17.83m.

 

The opening day was simply huge in Australia compared to other opening days. I expect the next 3 days to be around 30-35% below TFA. That gives an OW of at least AUD16-17m. 

 

I'll look again when we get the actual opening day tomorrow. Based on this my preliminary early estimate for the Domestic OW is USD144-153m. 

 

We shall see. 

 

(I hit submit accidentally)

Edited December 15, 2016 by DeeCee

[misafeco]

3 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

TFA had an opening day of AUD9.42m. I always expected the first day would have a bigger drop of around 50% then the rest of the opening weekend. 

 

More to come. 

R1's OD multi will be higher. That's common sense. Everyone rushed to see TFA.

[FantasticBeasts]

Well If the OS number is down 50% from TFA (OW) then I can call this a disapointment. It's not that the numbers will be bad, far from it, but normally people who go to see a movie at OW are people who have waited for the movie probably fans.. If it falls more than 50% it would mean that either fans didn't rush to see this or that TFA's OW was full of fans and thus not really indicatve of the number of SW fans . But we should wait to see how it does. This is just a small sample of OD....

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Well If the OS number is down 50% from TFA (OW) then I can call this a disapointment. It's not that the numbers will be bad, far from it, but normally people who go to see a movie at OW are people who have waited for the movie probably fans.. If it falls more than 50% it would mean that either fans didn't rush to see this or that TFA's OW was full of fans and thus not really indicatve of the number of SW fans . But we should wait to see how it does. This is just a small sample of OD....

I do not know why people call it a disappointment, when since weeks it was seemingly tracked like this and since weeks it was clear that the 'must see after a 15 years / 30 years wait event' (depending on which trilogy the people counting as getting what wanted) will NOT be a thing to compare to.

It is not a new episode, it is not aimed at the same age groups, it was announced as a kind of war movie Sci-Fi, not as a Space Opera and so on. It has reports in the media that social media blew out of proportion early on and some other details that never let me expect as much as you seem to expect, but quite the opposite.

Even the advertising in OS was rather small in comparison = depending on where. It looks to be still within the ~ expectations of the outlet giving the OS possibilities see last weekend

Or is it about comparing with FBs details like James seems to do?

 

[miketheavenger]

Again, if this would be Episode VIII this would be an alarming drop, but since it's a spinoff it's still a remarkable number and shows the strength of the SW brand. Spinoffs always do significantly less than the "main franchise". Look at Puss in Boots, look at the comic book movie spinoffs. Look at Peguins of Madagascar, Planes, Scorpion King. Yes, Minions made more than DM2 WW and came relatively close DOM, but that is the exception to the rule. Personally, I've always predicted around $1.1b WW for Rogue One and I didn't change my prediction even after TFA blew up. And in addition to that, we don't know yet if Rogue One will be as frontloaded as TFA was. It's entirely possible that early fanrush won't be on the same level as TFA. Just my two cents.

[DeeCee]

The opening day drop was always going to be the biggest percentage drop. The OW and final gross will be smaller drops. 

[FantasticBeasts]

6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I do not know why people call it a disappointment, when since weeks it was seemingly tracked like this and since weeks it was clear that the 'must see after a 15 years / 30 years wait event' (depending on which trilogy the people counting as getting what wanted) will NOT be a thing to compare to.

It is not a new episode, it is not aimed at the same age groups, it was announced as a kind of war movie Sci-Fi, not as a Space Opera and so on. It has reports in the media that social media blew out of proportion early on and some other details that never let me expect as much as you seem to expect, but quite the opposite.

Even the advertising in OS was rather small in comparison = depending on where. It looks to be still within the ~ expectations of the outlet giving the OS possibilities see last weekend

Or is it about comparing with FBs details like James seems to do?

 

Come on...I can get some facts that you say but we are talking about the same film series. There will obviously be some comparisons. I have been told so many times in this forum that SW fanbase is the bigeest etc.. A big proportion of TFA's numbers came from casual fans. Even more in the OD. It's not like people who have never seen a SW film before rushed to see TFA on the OD..OD are alwas expected to be fan driven so I would expect some softer drops considering that it's not like SW fans completely disapppeard. I would call this good if we see a 50% drop from TFA's total gross but this is supposed to be more fan-driven and with those OD numbers, at lease in those countries it feels difficult right now.

Also, justhave a  look at the prediction game for this. Most of the predictions are +1.3B OS with a lot of them going as high as 1.5B or even more...Considering that this does 500m Dom this would need at least 800m OS to do those numbers which would mean a more-or-less 25% drop from TFA  when the first numbers show 60-70% drops...

You have always seemed to me as one of the most kind members here. But I really didn't like this post of yours. It's not like I said something to offend anyone. I am just expressing my version of eevents.

[Hades]

Disney should stop with the annual Star Wars releases. Fatigue will soon start setting in. They need to build anticipation, a 2 year gap between films at least. Its only a matter of time before certain Marvel and DC films start making more money in certain key markets and even the US.

[grey ghost]

Maybe 1 billion is a disappointment or maybe we shouldn't expect a spin off to make 60 to 70% of one of the most anticipated films in history.

[YSLDC]

Just now, Hades said:

Disney should stop with the annual Star Wars releases. Fatigue will soon start setting in. They need to build anticipation, a 2 year gap between films at least. Its only a matter of time before certain Marvel and DC films start making more money in certain key markets and even the US.

It's Disney. What do you expect. I honestly don't know what their plan is in the long run. You can't rely on only-blockbusters. That bubble is going to burst 10 years from now. 

Who I'm I kidding. They'll buy other franchises. 

[baumer]

Disney has been successful for 90+ years.  I think they know what they are doing.  IMHO, they had to know that spin-offs would do about a billion WW.  They are in the business to make money and right now, money is perpetual.  I don't think they need to stop doing what they are doing in the SW universe.  I'm personally not all that interested in Rogue one but massively excited for E8.  And this is just building their SW library, and this is going to sell more toys and games and so on.  The Disney business model is a juggernaut.  

[FantasticBeasts]

Well just to make my opinion clear and stop any further comments. I think it would be very good if this does 50% of what TFA did. But I supposed, I may be wrong, that in order for those numbers to happen we had to see some better drops on OD (like 30-40%) considering that people have said this movie will be more fan driven and fans usually rush to see this on OD. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

5 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Disney has been successful for 90+ years.  I think they know what they are doing.  IMHO, they had to know that spin-offs would do about a billion WW.  They are in the business to make money and right now, money is perpetual.  I don't think they need to stop doing what they are doing in the SW universe.  I'm personally not all that interested in Rogue one but massively excited for E8.  And this is just building their SW library, and this is going to sell more toys and games and so on.  The Disney business model is a juggernaut.  

Yeah, a movie every year will also bump all their other SW properties, from selling blu-rays/digital copies of the old films to getting people more interested in watching the shows, reading the comics, etc. Disney is gonna make a bunch of $ from RO itself, but also a bunch of $ from all the ancillary revenue that comes with a new SW film as well.

[grey ghost]

Star Wars fatigue means just as much as superhero fatigue.

 

These franchises bring in hundreds of millions if not billions every year. Businesses love steady income.

 

What's spacing them out going to do?

 

You might build more anticipation but how much annual revenue did you lose?

 

This is an empire. You can't just put huge parts on hiatus.

[grey ghost]

16 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

It's Disney. What do you expect. I honestly don't know what their plan is in the long run. You can't rely on only-blockbusters. That bubble is going to burst 10 years from now. 

Who I'm I kidding. They'll buy other franchises. 

 

What major studio doesn't rely on blockbusters?

[MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie]

Haven't seen the film yet, so I can't comment on its quality, but I will say that J.J. Abrams, in one sense, put this film in a very tough spot.

 

His decision to mostly eschew new designs in TFA and draw so heavily on the OT aesthestic may have worked like gangbusters to gin up anticipation for that film ("That looks like Star Wars!"), but it kind of makes Rogue One look like an also-ran to the general public just one year later.

 

If TFA had looked as different from the OT as the PT did, R1 would really be the first film offering us a return to that classic Star Wars world that so many remember and cherish.  But TFA stole a lot of that thunder, IMO.  R1 might just have been the exact wrong film to follow TFA and start the Star Wars side stories with.

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Come on...I can get some facts that you say but we are talking about the same film series. There will obviously be some comparisons. I have been told so many times in this forum that SW fanbase is the bigeest etc.. A big proportion of TFA's numbers came from casual fans. Even more in the OD. It's not like people who have never seen a SW film before rushed to see TFA on the OD..OD are alwas expected to be fan driven so I would expect some softer drops considering that it's not like SW fans completely disapppeard. I would call this good if we see a 50% drop from TFA's total gross but this is supposed to be more fan-driven and with those OD numbers, at lease in those countries it feels difficult right now.

Also, justhave a  look at the prediction game for this. Most of the predictions are +1.3B OS with a lot of them going as high as 1.5B or even more...Considering that this does 500m Dom this would need at least 800m OS to do those numbers which would mean a more-or-less 25% drop from TFA  when the first numbers show 60-70% drops...

You have always seemed to me as one of the most kind members here. But I really didn't like this post of yours. It's not like I said something to offend anyone. I am just expressing my version of eevents.

Please do not compare the US fanbase % to OS fanbase %. In some countries the old films never were even released outside film festivals or later on on TV (where they were seen as old looking, not something every culture is looking positive on)

Prediction games do not interest me, as told repeatedly.

Sometimes the participants of those prediction games/clubs are level headed and know the general 'rules' of OS or at least some regions / countries and sometimes they are over-the-top hopeful fans with or without the experience, sometimes a mix out of those 2 groups and some other people also. I didnt look into any those posts about OS, not my thing, so I have no impression about it.

In addition:

I obviously didn't look into the dates, but depending on the poster it is possible that they didn't take the war film = not a family film into consideration, that aspect is relatively speaking new confirmed and even heightened.

Or that this year the calendar is 'steeling' us all a few public holidays, less people will take a 'long weekend' as a whole week and so on. Only to give two examples, why some predictions might be a bit optimistic (or not).

Beside: this are first preview numbers, it is also possible that WOM changes the admissions in both directions:

it is really good, a must see = going up

it is really unsuitable for X-Mas / families / children = goes down or gets down and then long legs....

 

IMHO it is way too early to interpret anything, no social media reactions, no articles with audience age groups splits, no audience ratings per translated version,....

 

edit: I missed the last sentence: it was not meant in an unfriendly way, only a question if it is a possibility that something might influence your POV, not as a planed thing. Or if the experience with FB let you assume to compare with the same details / %.... 

Probably my mistake

Edited December 15, 2016 by terrestrial

[baumer]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Star Wars fatigue means just as much as superhero fatigue.

 

These franchises bring in hundreds of millions if not billions every year. Businesses love steady income.

 

What's spacing them out going to do?

 

You might build more anticipation but how much annual revenue did you lose?

 

This is an empire. You can't just put huge parts on hiatus.

 

That has to be the most "no fucking shit lady, does it sound like I'm ordering a pizza?" statement ever.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie said:

Haven't seen the film yet, so I can't comment on its quality, but I will say that J.J. Abrams, in one sense, put this film in a very tough spot.

 

His decision to mostly eschew new designs in TFA and draw so heavily on the OT aesthestic may have worked like gangbusters to gin up anticipation for that film ("That looks like Star Wars!"), but it kind of makes Rogue One look like an also-ran to the general public just one year later.

 

If TFA had looked as different from the OT as the PT did, R1 would really be the first film offering us a return to that classic Star Wars world that so many remember and cherish.  But TFA stole a lot of that thunder, IMO.  R1 might just have been the exact wrong film to follow TFA and start the Star Wars side stories with.

 

But again, Disney has to know the market for this isn't or wasn't going to be anywhere near what it was for TFA.  Even the most optimistic predictions here don't have it hitting 700 million.