ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[Dementeleus]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

4% rise from True Friday?  Would that be considered good or bad for this size of a movie.

 

I think it's fine. My model has it finishing around 500m currently. Again, I think I'm being conservative with it for the most part, but we'll have to see in the days to come. 

 

edit: oops, slight typo on my sheet. Fixed. It predicts 44.2

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

I think it's fine. My model has it finishing around 500m currently. Again, I think I'm being conservative with it for the most part, but we'll have to see in the days to come. 

 

edit: oops, slight typo on my sheet. Fixed. It predicts 44.2

 

Weird my sheet has it at 550m Dom, you really are being conservative here tele.

 

edit: ah crap, i messed up also, it actually predicts 323m dom

Edited December 18, 2016 by IronJimbo

[DAR]

9 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Moderation:

Please use English on these forums. 

Bueno, diga la verdad Sr. Tele de Grand Moff

[JohnnyGossamer]

Will this be the first the #1 DOM isn't from NA... Referring to Mermaid doing $530M in China.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

Will this be the first the #1 DOM isn't from NA... Referring to Mermaid doing $530M in China.

Interesting I overlooked this.

 

People make fun of Avatar 2 for taking so long to be released and joke that it never will be, but every year China's box office gets stronger.

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Interesting I overlooked this.

 

People make fun of Avatar 2 for taking so long to be released and joke that it never will be, but every year China's box office gets stronger.

 

Every year they get smarter as well.  Not great news for Avatar.  

[IronJimbo]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

Every year they get smarter as well.  Not great news for Avatar.  

Avatar is doomed then, good news for Marvel and Star Wars films though.

[Ozymandias]

17 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

15 years old CGI

 

 

The balrog is seriously jaw-dropping, especially for its time.

 

 

 

*Badass soundtrack kicks in*

 

"A Balrog, a demon of the ancient world..."

 

 

[JonathanLB]

The one thing I don't understand about some people's math is you'll indicate Sunday will be a harsher drop from Saturday than TFA had because of far fewer kids being off Monday. Ok totally logical, I'm with you. But then you don't acknowledge that would have a large effect on the multiple. Just because a movie loses $5M in business Sunday night or whatever doesn't mean it then loses $5M x 3 because you didn't adjust your multiple properly. It seems to go without saying that any delayed business because of weather or school or anything else would be made up later and thus increase the multiple significantly. 

 

Instead i I feel like you have people who act like they accounted for that but didn't. You're punishing the movie twice, once with a lower Sunday gross and then extrapolating that to saying since it only made $150M OW it can only make 3x that total but if it had made $155M OW it would still make 3x that. In other words you think $5 million in lost business Sunday is actually $15M lost total which obviously is totally illogical on every level.

 

If anything a smaller opening and larger fall on Sunday means a better than TFA 3.78 multiple NOT worse. So instead that is explained away every time by "well TFA was a phenomenon and had amazing word of mouth." Only problem there is the facts don't support the WOM argument as the CinemaScores are identical and the RT user ratings and user positives are identical or in Rogue One's favor. And Star Wars is the phenomenon not just TFA. Tron wasn't a phenomenon, it had over a 4x multiple.

[redfirebird2008]

Anyone checked out the Cranston LBJ movie on HBO?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

Anyone checked out the Cranston LBJ movie on HBO?

Yeah it's ok. Cranston gives an amazing performance though.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Anyone checked out the Cranston LBJ movie on HBO?

Yeah. Pretty good.

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, JonathanLB said:

The one thing I don't understand about some people's math is you'll indicate Sunday will be a harsher drop from Saturday than TFA had because of far fewer kids being off Monday. Ok totally logical, I'm with you. But then you don't acknowledge that would have a large effect on the multiple. Just because a movie loses $5M in business Sunday night or whatever doesn't mean it then loses $5M x 3 because you didn't adjust your multiple properly. It seems to go without saying that any delayed business because of weather or school or anything else would be made up later and thus increase the multiple significantly. 

 

Instead i I feel like you have people who act like they accounted for that but didn't. You're punishing the movie twice, once with a lower Sunday gross and then extrapolating that to saying since it only made $150M OW it can only make 3x that total but if it had made $155M OW it would still make 3x that. In other words you think $5 million in lost business Sunday is actually $15M lost total which obviously is totally illogical on every level.

 

If anything a smaller opening and larger fall on Sunday means a better than TFA 3.78 multiple NOT worse. So instead that is explained away every time by "well TFA was a phenomenon and had amazing word of mouth." Only problem there is the facts don't support the WOM argument as the CinemaScores are identical and the RT user ratings and user positives are identical or in Rogue One's favor. And Star Wars is the phenomenon not just TFA. Tron wasn't a phenomenon, it had over a 4x multiple.

 

Not to answer briefly, but no: if you set up some daily percentages in a spreadsheet you'll see that the difference of a few million early on has a big ripple effect overall. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Well we should get #s from rth relatively soon, I'd guess.

[That One Girl]

I just caught up on 20 pages of nothing.

 

If you get caught up on nothing, do you even get caught up at all?

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

I just caught up on 20 pages of nothing.

 

If you get caught up on nothing, do you even get caught up at all?

 

 

[grey ghost]

20 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

I think it's fine. My model has it finishing around 500m currently. Again, I think I'm being conservative with it for the most part, but we'll have to see in the days to come. 

 

edit: oops, slight typo on my sheet. Fixed. It predicts 44.2

 

Is that 44.2 on the conservative end or is it the average RO could make on Saturday?

[JonathanLB]

4 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Not to answer briefly, but no: if you set up some daily percentages in a spreadsheet you'll see that the difference of a few million early on has a big ripple effect overall. 

 

Exactly, it does, but that's making a whole host of assumptions that aren't necessarily based on good underlying data. Assuming Rogue One would open lower than TFA was a no brainer and completely expected. Assuming it'll also hold less strongly despite a much smaller opening? Eh, I don't know about that. I'm not sure that's a fair assumption given TFA was the most anticipated film ever with a huge rush to see factor. Who is to say plenty of people want to see Rogue One but are willing to wait, in a larger percentage than waited for TFA? To me that seems logical. 

 

Im purely playing devils advocate to accepted knowledge around here because I too expect Rogue Ones multiple to be closer to 3.5 and not above TFA. But I would be remiss if I didn't point out that such an assumption is more gut level than fact based. 

Edited December 18, 2016 by JonathanLB

[NCsoft]

10 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Every year they get smarter as well.  Not great news for Avatar.  

 

I guess that is exactly why Titanic 3D re-run in China (back in 2012), significantly out-grossed TFA (in 2016) despite the market size being 2.5 times greater in 2016 than in 2012. I guess I'm sorry TFA is just not well received in China and had terrible legs despite good opening (based on Disney hype).

Star Wars fans, you just can't have it all.

[Dementeleus]

2 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

 

Exactly, it does, but that's making a whole host of assumptions that aren't necessarily based on good underlying data. 

 

It's making projections based on data and comps from previous movies that match franchise, genre, and release date. It's up to you to determine whether those comps are good or not.