ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[RandomCat]

Being more serious. An Event isn't just it's box office/admissions. That's too clinical a view. An Event is also tied to emotion, anticipation. I would also say it's also tied into how the film is perceived before it comes out, not after. Like, Twilight, I could call an event, certainly for it's fans, it has a build up, anticipation, excitement. Frozen, I wouldn't call an event, it's dead up until it's release where it explodes, it's a phenomenon.

 

It may seem like splitting hairs, but that's how I feel about it. Event and Phenomenon aren't just how much it makes, but how much emotion, and just fervor surround the film and it's release.

[MattW]

Harry Potter and twilight opening the weekend before christmas would have done a bit less ow and a bit more overall.  Force Awakens opening in summer time would have opened slightly bigger, but done less overall.  Rogue One in summer would have opened bigger, not sure about less overall though, gotta wait to see the legs.

 

That's my guess.

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, misafeco said:

Kal = @IronJimbo 

 

I miss Kal, he said he got married so I guess no time for talking to sws loonies on a box office forum.

[That One Girl]

hello.

[baumer]

2 hours ago, La Binoche said:

 

I thought it might fill a void the way last year's critically panned but enjoyable Daddy's Home did during Oscar season. Anyway, I'd be happy if I never saw Jennifer Aniston's orange face in another movie ever again. 

 

And Aniston speaks very highly of you as well. She praises all of your accoplishments in life.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

I miss Kal, he said he got married so I guess no time for talking to sws loonies on a box office forum.

 

Let's see if we can summon his presence:

 

@Kalel009Shel

[Dark 33Legend of the Sith]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

In terms of discussing what qualifies as a box office event, I'm probably letting my opinion get in the way the least of anyone. I gave a firm statistical cutoff for movies that I'd considered events (somewhere around top 50 admissions). I don't think that's an unrealistic cutoff either, seeing as how saying 50+ films were events is still an awful lot of films. Say too many were an event and it simply becomes too ordinary of an occurrence to be true. If I love The Hunger Games, it doesn't matter. It still doesn't pass the bar for what I consider a box office event. 

 

But here is where your logic is flawed. Your stance is almost robotic in saying it has to reach a certain threshold (Top 50 in admissions) to become an event. There has to be a certain "feel" to what an event is.

 

According to that logic, The Force Awakens wasn't an "event" until it crossed the top 50 admission threshold which was right around it's 11th day of release.  No matter what TFA did after it's opening weekend, it was an event.  The build up, the public consciousness, and massive opening weekend was more than enough to gain that status.

 

This is subjective to all because IMO there has to be a "feel" for an event that is massive in the public and pop culture.  You don't zap in #'s and quantify what a movie event is.  There is a certain feel to it.

 

On a side note, to say T2 wasn't an event film is pretty much clinically insane.  I was a teenager when it came out.  It was absolutely everywhere. You couldn't go anywhere without getting pummeled with marketing.  Then the movie came out and it was better and bigger than the hype but also revolutionary for the industry.  It may not be in the top 50 for admissions, but it is that absolute definition of what an event movie should be.

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, RandomJC said:

Being more serious. An Event isn't just it's box office/admissions. That's too clinical a view. An Event is also tied to emotion, anticipation. I would also say it's also tied into how the film is perceived before it comes out, not after. Like, Twilight, I could call an event, certainly for it's fans, it has a build up, anticipation, excitement. Frozen, I wouldn't call an event, it's dead up until it's release where it explodes, it's a phenomenon.

 

It may seem like splitting hairs, but that's how I feel about it. Event and Phenomenon aren't just how much it makes, but how much emotion, and just fervor surround the film and it's release.

 

Agree in the usual film terms, like the film enthusiast or GA will see it (and I too), see my earlier post, about it not being fixed per amount, if specialised = non 3-quad (I cant remember the term) and so on.

 

But like in that sports event example someone posted earlier, BOT is BO specialised, so I think here at least both definitions should be accepted in the use

[DAJK]

Sunday night was a bit slower than expected here. But that's okay because RO's opening weekend total is our equivalent of $168.0M

 

THATS an event. Our biggest of the year ahead of Dory's $146.5M

[Jason]

43 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Serious question:

 

While I think I was wrong about R1 making 450 and having about a 3 multiplier, do you guys think that New moon and Eclipse and DH2 would have made 400 million+ if released at Christmas instead of when it did?

 

Personally, my guess is that a release in December raises multipliers, but also lowers opening weekends, so that the total potential gross doesn't necessarily change that much. I don't know what data to examine (if it exists) to determine whether that guess is correct. It seems to me that in the past, not many films with potential for even $300M+ have been given December releases.

 

My reasoning is that at least some people who would otherwise see a film on opening weekend will wait a week or two for the holidays in December, since the lead-up the holidays is busy for a lot of people, and once the holidays actually arrive a lot of people get time off, making it easier to go in a group with family and friends. At other times of year there isn't generally anything to be gained by waiting.

 

Anecdotally, most of the people I know (which admittedly includes a lot of young people/students) are very committed to seeing Rogue One but are waiting for the holidays, or later this week as friends/siblings finish exams. At other times of year I know many of them would just go on OW.

[terrestrial]

Quote

Paramount
Office Christmas Party	$8,587,528	-49%	3,210	$2,675	$31,655,795
Arrival	$2,972,958	-47%	2,157	$1,378	$86,666,325
Allied	$1,323,176	-67%	1,625	$814	$38,532,093
Fences	$129,462		4	$32,366	$129,462
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back	$111,152	-46%	235	$473	$58,274,229
Sony
The Magnificent Seven	$19,833	-53%	59	$336	$93,381,044
Inferno	$17,115	-72%	64	$267	$34,097,076
Don’t Breathe	$11,321	-65%	37	$306	$89,210,468

 

[MJL]

On another note (and forgive me if it's been posted), PotC5 just got more interesting..

 

http://toofab.com/2016/12/17/keira-knightley-to-return-to-pirates-of-caribbean-exclusive-details/

 

(Before anyone wonders, TooFab is under TMZ)

Edited December 19, 2016 by MJL
Added info

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

 

Agree in the usual film terms, like the film enthusiast or GA will see it (and I too), see my earlier post, about it not being fixed per amount, if specialised = non 3-quad (I cant remember the term) and so on.

 

But like in that sports event example someone posted earlier, BOT is BO specialised, so I think here at least both definitions should be accepted in the use

 

Fair point.

 

I would say though that having a demarcated line of "admissions" isn't necessarily the best way to demarcate what is and isn't an event. A large opening certainly implies an event, whether good or bad (Legs) if a lot of people rushed out to see a film opening weekend, it's an event, a must see. I would then say that a Phenomenon is defined by a film's legs (Even more so if there isn't a large opening).  Like the difference between Avatar (A Phenomenon) or Jurassic World (An Event).

 

Also I believe "admissions" is a such a strange thing that is nearly impossible to judge since it's all estimated versus actual hard numbers.

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, RandomJC said:

Also I believe "admissions" is a such a strange thing that is nearly impossible to judge since it's all estimated versus actual hard numbers.

I meant to define by $ 

 

admissions I see mostly relevant if:

exact numbers are available, and the times / possibilities to spend free time... are similar.

Like different decades have different population counts, but also different technology or... possibilities, school holidays and ... seasons and so on.

[MovieMan89]

13 minutes ago, Dark 33Legend of the Sith said:

 

But here is where your logic is flawed. Your stance is almost robotic in saying it has to reach a certain threshold (Top 50 in admissions) to become an event. There has to be a certain "feel" to what an event is.

 

According to that logic, The Force Awakens wasn't an "event" until it crossed the top 50 admission threshold which was right around it's 11th day of release.  No matter what TFA did after it's opening weekend, it was an event.  The build up, the public consciousness, and massive opening weekend was more than enough to gain that status.

 

This is subjective to all because IMO there has to be a "feel" for an event that is massive in the public and pop culture.  You don't zap in #'s and quantify what a movie event is.  There is a certain feel to it.

 

On a side note, to say T2 wasn't an event film is pretty much clinically insane.  I was a teenager when it came out.  It was absolutely everywhere. You couldn't go anywhere without getting pummeled with marketing.  Then the movie came out and it was better and bigger than the hype but also revolutionary for the industry.  It may not be in the top 50 for admissions, but it is that absolute definition of what an event movie should be.

You guys keep changing what kind of an event is being discussed just to keep going around in circles. I already discussed that there can be event OWs separate of their total runs. Similarly, yes there can be event level build ups to a film as well (something TFA had and R1 most certainly did not). Finally, pop culture events are different than box office events, the two are not mutually exclusive. If people want to keep changing what type of event is being discussed so they can tiptoe around the obvious facts of R1 not being an event, then it simply proves my point further. 

[B J]

movie man = so very wrong

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

I meant to define by $ 

 

admissions I see mostly relevant if:

exact numbers are available, and the times / possibilities to spend free time... are similar.

Like different decades have different population counts, but also different technology or... possibilities, school holidays and ... seasons and so on.

 

Lol, I brought up admissions because it was part of the prominent argument Movieman89 was making. Apologies for any confusion on my part.

[CJohn]

R1 is the biggest movie event of the year.

[75Live]

my current mood about this event "discussion"

 

 

[Dementeleus]

FYI, Gary Whitta has been responding to fans on Twitter and occasionally providing little nuggets of info.