Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

[JB33]

As others have said, a softer increase than I was expecting for Rogue One. I figured we'd see between $20M and $22M. Ah well, it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, but I had just hoped that the 3rd weekend would top the $55.64M 3rd weekend of The Avengers.

[SWXII]

5 hours ago, Noctis said:

 

Ah, American football...truly a sport that showcases the stupidity of humans. 

 

Yes, I agree stupid people don't appreciate it.

[SWXII]

6 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Disney needs about $17.5 million today (Saturday) to crack the $3B DOM mark for the year. 

 

That is locked right?

[baumer]

Yes Disney will easily make 17.5 mill today.

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, SWXII said:

 

That is locked right?

 

Yes. Rogue One alone will almost make that.

[terrestrial]

 

19 minutes ago, Quigley said:

Disney's journey to $3B is turning into a thriller. Taking Friday's estimates into account, Rogue One, Moana and Doctor Strange must earn a total of $17.2M on New Year's Eve in order to cross the coveted milestone.

 

19 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Disney needs about $17.5 million today (Saturday) to crack the $3B DOM mark for the year. 

 

SW R1 est. = $18,176,000

Moana est. = $4,334,000

as posted earlier:

Doctor Strange made an est. Friday of $236,000

Queen of Katwe made an est. Friday of $8,000

= maybe the difference in the numbers?

sum is $22.754m

Edited December 31, 2016 by terrestrial

[GiantCALBears]

2 hours ago, Christmas Baumer said:

I don't think any college games on Friday affected anything for R1.....in fact, I don't think the Bowl games will hurt anything today any more than usual.  Today is NYE....that's enough to see drops in all films.

These games will draw 20m each on a day that is already supposed to be weak, it will have an effect. How noticeable is up for debate but I disagree completely it's business as normal etc.

[terrestrial]

Quote

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter 25th Frame 26 Aries 5&2 A23 A24 AAE Abr. AD ADC AEF AF Air Bud Alc Ampl. Anch. AR ArcEnt Argentum Argo. Artma BBC BG BM Bow and Arro Boxcar BSC BSM BST BV BWP Cartuna CAVU CIE CineGalaxy Cinestaan CJ CL Cleopatra Cohen Col. Collective E Crnth CZ Dalton Distrib. Dreamwest Drft. DWOES EC EF Electric Elev. EOne EpicPics Eros ESX FB FCW FIP FM Focus Forewarned Fox FoxS FR Free FRun FUN Gaatri Gathr Gemelli GK Gold. Grasshopper Grav. GVN Ham Hann. HHF HTR Icar. ICir IFC Imax In the Light INDEP Indic. Invincible Jampa Jan. JBG JSenko KL Leis. LG/S LGF LGP Libre LifeWay Lightyear Linn Little Flowe Long Shot Magn. MarVista Masters Mats. MBox MDL Men. Mirror Mon Mont. Moore MR MS NET Orch. ORF Orion Osci. Pala. Par. PFP PFR PH PM&E PNT Purd. QF RAtt. Red Dirt Rel. Rela. Relbig. Rialto RM RME Saban Scre. SD SDS SGem Shad. Shout! Shrts. SkyI SM Sony SPC Strand STX TFA TFC Thinking Man Trans TriCoast TriS TUG UEP Uncork'd Uni. UTMW UTV Vanish Vanishing VE Vita. VPD W/Dim. WARX2 WB WB (NL) Wein. WGUSA Wonder WOW WRA Yash YFG Zee Zeit. Zipp. ALL	Gross / Theaters		Total Gross / % of Total		Open
1	Finding Dory	BV	$486,295,561	4,305	$486,295,561	100.0%	6/17/16
2	Captain America: Civil War	BV	$408,084,349	4,226	$408,084,349	100.0%	5/6/16
3	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$393,554,705	4,157	$393,554,705	100.0%	12/16/16
5	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$364,001,123	4,144	$364,001,123	100.0%	4/15/16
7	Zootopia	BV	$341,268,248	3,959	$341,268,248	100.0%	3/4/16
10	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$284,694,956	4,134	$936,662,225	30.4%	12/18/15
11	Doctor Strange	BV	$229,697,310	3,882	$229,697,310	100.0%	11/4/16
13	Moana	BV	$203,393,039	3,875	$203,393,039	100.0%	11/23/16
39	Alice Through the Looking Glass	BV	$77,041,381	3,763	$77,041,381	100.0%	5/27/16
40	Pete's Dragon (2016)	BV	$76,233,151	3,702	$76,233,151	100.0%	8/12/16
57	The BFG	BV	$55,483,770	3,392	$55,483,770	100.0%	7/1/16
94	The Finest Hours	BV	$27,569,558	3,143	$27,569,558	100.0%	1/29/16
134	The Light Between Oceans	BV	$12,545,979	1,500	$12,545,979	100.0%	9/2/16
135	The Good Dinosaur	BV	$12,370,650	1,735	$123,087,120	10.1%	11/25/15
152	Queen of Katwe	BV	$8,845,487	1,259	$8,845,487	100.0%	9/23/16
226	Bridge of Spies	BV	$1,865,978	523	$72,313,754	2.6%	10/16/15
Buena Vista Pictures (Disney) Summary (16 Movies):
Totals:			$2,982,945,245	-	$3,816,076,760	-	-

that includes the Friday estimates

[GiantCALBears]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

second harshest drop from R1 from last friday among top 12!!! but who cares??!!

It's had a good but not great number yesterday. Probably puts any shot at $600m out of reach.

[SteveJaros]

23 minutes ago, SWXII said:

 

That is locked right?

 

IMO, "locked" is too strong. Maybe 95% likely?

[terrestrial]

Am I nuts or why do I get $17,054,755 as needed?

(edit: assuming est. stand... +$1 for the fun of it)

Edited December 31, 2016 by terrestrial

[Valonqar]

What's with Moana fans doing butthurt math, did Sing kick Moana's pet blowfish or something? 

[La Binoche]

9 hours ago, vc2002 said:

Look at Illumination Entertainment's DOM track record HOLY SHIIIT

 

(And none of those budgeted over 80m)

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	$368,384,330	4,381	$104,352,905	4,370	7/8/16
2	Despicable Me 2	Uni.	$368,061,265	4,003	$83,517,315	3,997	7/3/13
3	Minions	Uni.	$336,045,770	4,311	$115,718,405	4,301	7/10/15
4	Despicable Me	Uni.	$251,513,985	3,602	$56,397,125	3,476	7/9/10
5	Dr. Seuss' The Lorax	Uni.	$214,030,500	3,769	$70,217,070	3,729	3/2/12
6	Sing	Uni.	$123,601,490	4,029	$35,258,145	4,022	12/21/16
7	Hop	Uni.	$108,085,305	3,616	$37,543,710	3,579	4/1/11

 

Holy shit at them all being crap except for the first Despicable Me. 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

 

Holy shit at them all being crap except for the first Despicable Me. 

DM sucks too.

[terrestrial]

Me = not into animated (never saw one voluntarily outside of family obligations) am neutral about Moana

This includes Friday estimates. I am not sure why anyone wouldn't be pleased with its development, beside running against another animated competition

 

Chart Date	values
Nov 23, 2016	$15,519,234
Nov 24, 2016	$25,448,873
Nov 25, 2016	$47,241,881
Nov 26, 2016	$68,572,762
Nov 27, 2016	$82,080,274
Nov 28, 2016	$84,411,896
Nov 29, 2016	$87,593,183
Nov 30, 2016	$89,583,410
Dec 1, 2016	$91,515,330
Dec 2, 2016	$98,059,973
Dec 3, 2016	$111,020,030
Dec 4, 2016	$119,786,319
Dec 5, 2016	$121,205,700
Dec 6, 2016	$123,381,833
Dec 7, 2016	$124,772,054
Dec 8, 2016	$126,166,593
Dec 9, 2016	$130,372,515
Dec 10, 2016	$139,099,001
Dec 11, 2016	$144,700,397
Dec 12, 2016	$145,880,242
Dec 13, 2016	$147,643,785
Dec 14, 2016	$148,895,861
Dec 15, 2016	$150,194,745
Dec 16, 2016	$153,250,662
Dec 17, 2016	$158,522,225
Dec 18, 2016	$162,920,977
Dec 19, 2016	$165,271,804
Dec 20, 2016	$168,331,660
Dec 21, 2016	$170,457,987
Dec 22, 2016	$173,032,191
Dec 23, 2016	$175,964,789
Dec 24, 2016	$177,797,863
Dec 25, 2016	$180,745,458
Dec 26, 2016	$185,587,051
Dec 27, 2016	$190,431,447
Dec 28, 2016	$194,898,826
Dec 29, 2016	$199,059,039
Dec 30, 2016	$203,393,039

 

The shaded area represents the expected performance range for a film, based on its opening weekend box office. 95% of films fall within the shaded area. If a film trends towards the top end of the shaded area, it has good legs compared to the average film; if it trends towards the bottom end of the shaded area, it has poor legs. The predictive area is based on movies from the past 5 years.

[FantasticBeasts]

7 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Me = not into animated (never saw one voluntarily outside of family obligations) am neutral about Moana

This includes Friday estimates. I am not sure why anyone wouldn't be pleased with its development, beside running against another animated competition

 

Chart Date	values
Nov 23, 2016	$15,519,234
Nov 24, 2016	$25,448,873
Nov 25, 2016	$47,241,881
Nov 26, 2016	$68,572,762
Nov 27, 2016	$82,080,274
Nov 28, 2016	$84,411,896
Nov 29, 2016	$87,593,183
Nov 30, 2016	$89,583,410
Dec 1, 2016	$91,515,330
Dec 2, 2016	$98,059,973
Dec 3, 2016	$111,020,030
Dec 4, 2016	$119,786,319
Dec 5, 2016	$121,205,700
Dec 6, 2016	$123,381,833
Dec 7, 2016	$124,772,054
Dec 8, 2016	$126,166,593
Dec 9, 2016	$130,372,515
Dec 10, 2016	$139,099,001
Dec 11, 2016	$144,700,397
Dec 12, 2016	$145,880,242
Dec 13, 2016	$147,643,785
Dec 14, 2016	$148,895,861
Dec 15, 2016	$150,194,745
Dec 16, 2016	$153,250,662
Dec 17, 2016	$158,522,225
Dec 18, 2016	$162,920,977
Dec 19, 2016	$165,271,804
Dec 20, 2016	$168,331,660
Dec 21, 2016	$170,457,987
Dec 22, 2016	$173,032,191
Dec 23, 2016	$175,964,789
Dec 24, 2016	$177,797,863
Dec 25, 2016	$180,745,458
Dec 26, 2016	$185,587,051
Dec 27, 2016	$190,431,447
Dec 28, 2016	$194,898,826
Dec 29, 2016	$199,059,039
Dec 30, 2016	$203,393,039

 

The shaded area represents the expected performance range for a film, based on its opening weekend box office. 95% of films fall within the shaded area. If a film trends towards the top end of the shaded area, it has good legs compared to the average film; if it trends towards the bottom end of the shaded area, it has poor legs. The predictive area is based on movies from the past 5 years.

How you make such a graphic? Is it from the-numbers.com

[baumer]

37 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

These games will draw 20m each on a day that is already supposed to be weak, it will have an effect. How noticeable is up for debate but I disagree completely it's business as normal etc.

 

Well in my opinion you're wrong. Was it any different back in 2011? Arent all college football games on Saturday? New Year's Eve already kills movies as it is. So I guess we'll just have to wait until tomorrow and find out what the percentage drops are. I'm pretty sure they're going to be exactly what they were in 2011.

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Well in my opinion you're wrong. Was it any different back in 2011? Arent all college football games on Saturday? New Year's Eve already kills movies as it is. So I guess we'll just have to wait until tomorrow and find out what the percentage drops are. I'm pretty sure they're going to be exactly what they were in 2011.

 

The College Football Playoffs didn't exist in 2011, and the major games like the Rose Bowl and such were on Jan 1st, so it is a bit different than then, not entirely sure how the impact will be

[GiantCALBears]

3 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Well in my opinion you're wrong. Was it any different back in 2011? Arent all college football games on Saturday? New Year's Eve already kills movies as it is. So I guess we'll just have to wait until tomorrow and find out what the percentage drops are. I'm pretty sure they're going to be exactly what they were in 2011.

It is different lol this is only the second year the playoff has been on NYE. The games are earlier in the day compared to last year which should affect traffic even more given people are likely to go to the movies earlier in the day on NYE. 

[GiantCALBears]

I love how he says I'm wrong yet he really doesn't know much about the CFP at all. Lol B.