Weekend Thread...Friday numbers (Deadline) HF: 6M| BBM: 5M| PD: 4.2| LLL: 3.97 (PG 18) - NOT THE PIRACY THREAD (OR THE POLITICS THREAD)

[AniNate]

If a movie resonates with a substantial group of people, it'll find an audience. Dreamworks' problem of late is that they haven't been particularly interested in making distinguished films, believing that just being competent is enough to consistently pay their bills. For awhile I thought Illumination would run into the same problem eventually but they seem to be learning to have just enough heart to keep audiences coming back to their manically-paced slapstick that they market so well. 

 

With the unexpected optimism for Cars 3 and the relatively smooth production and unified vision for Coco, it's looking unlikely either experiences a Good Dino fate this year.

[cannastop]

10 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

You could also say recent poor exchange rates may have played a part in addition to their being too many animated films released a year. 

@Jason

[trifle]

1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

 

Both of those were so promising domestically and overseas, coming after Zootopia and Pets respectively, I don't know but it feels pretty weird that animated films performance kind of stagnated by the end of the year, fatigue maybe?

 

There was a lot of competition at the end of they year.  After months of very little,a lot of good films came out at once.  There are three films playing right now to kids, and the adults who would see Moana and Sing also want to see some of these other movies.  That's my opinion.  Moana is great, also imho.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

If a movie resonates with a substantial group of people, it'll find an audience. Dreamworks' problem of late is that they haven't been particularly interested in making distinguished films, believing that just being competent is enough to consistently pay their bills. For awhile I thought Illumination would run into the same problem eventually but they seem to be learning to have just enough heart to keep audiences coming back to their manically-paced slapstick that they market so well. 

 

With the unexpected optimism for Cars 3 and the relatively smooth production and unified vision for Coco, it's looking unlikely either experiences a Good Dino fate this year.

You're talking as if "heart" is some value that can be intentionally added to a movie...

Edited January 15, 2017 by cannastop

[junkshop36]

1 hour ago, hw64 said:

 

It's not making anywhere near $30-$35m overseas this weekend.

 

Last weekend it made $56.4m which included $30.6m in China, so $25.8m overseas weekend without China.

 

China this weekend looks good for $9m (or just over), and the trends in Rogue One's key overseas markets like Japan and Germany show around 40-55% drops.

 

Looks like it'll make just over $20m for the overseas 3-day weekend. 4-day is irrelevant since MLK Day is an American-only thing - it'll be just a normal weekday overseas. Probably looking at sub-$3m for Rogue One's next overseas Monday for <$25m over the 4-day period, if you really want to count it that way.

 

Regardless, it's still going over a Billion WW. Unfortunately it just didn't play as strongly in a number of OS markets. 

 

The spin off films will probably continue to play strong in NA and the U.K. but not as well in most other places. 

[AniNate]

Just now, cannastop said:

You're talking as if "heart" is some intentional value that can be added to a movie...

 

"Notion to give characters relatable personal arcs" would've taken too long to type

[SWXII]

3 hours ago, #ED said:

Where's the NFL Playoff discussion thread tho!?

 

So, I cracked the code on how to fix the playoffs since you mention it. 

 

Going to a 16 team format would keep many teams alive a lot longer adding interest to the playoff run. But having 8 games in the first round seems unmanageable. So I have a solution.

 

Teams would still be matched as they are now, best record vs worst etc. However, only half of the match-ups would happen the first weekend with half the team's off and then the other teams would play the following weekend. So each winning playoff team would get a bye week. The predetermined match-ups games could be scheduled by drawing.

 

First week of the playoffs would have 4 games. As would the second and third weekends. Then two championship games to determine the conference champs on the 4th weekend. And then the Super Bowl 2 weeks later.

 

Now that would be so much bettter than the current system that seems skewed to the same few teams year after year after year.

 

Alright, back to box office talk.

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

If a movie resonates with a substantial group of people, it'll find an audience. Dreamworks' problem of late is that they haven't been particularly interested in making distinguished films, believing that just being competent is enough to consistently pay their bills. For awhile I thought Illumination would run into the same problem eventually but they seem to be learning to have just enough heart to keep audiences coming back to their manically-paced slapstick that they market so well. 

 

With the unexpected optimism for Cars 3 and the relatively smooth production and unified vision for Coco, it's looking unlikely either experiences a Good Dino fate this year.

 

I think Illumination should be looking at different directors and writers for their films rather than sticking with the same teams they used for SLOP, DM, Minions etc I agree that DWA's issues was Katzenberg more focused on expanding the brand to theme park and TV and I think the films suffered as a result with the odd gem like HTTYD. 

 

WDAS, Pixar, Illumination, WAG and Blue Sky will be fine long term but I think Sony and Paramount are in danger of getting left behind, SPA in particular seems to throwing ideas to see what sticks. 

[Fancyarcher]

9 hours ago, filmlover said:

Also, it'll be interesting to see what happens to Ben Affleck's career as a director now after the strong run he had going for him. First he made a strong debut with Gone Baby Gone, a critical hit that made little at the box office but got some nominations and found a following on DVD. Then he struck with a critical and box office hit that also got some nominations with The Town. Then he got a critical and box office hit that would not only also got nominations but won Best Picture with Argo. And he follows it up with...Live by Night, a critical flop and an even bigger box office bomb. Hopefully this doesn't mark the beginning of a downturn.

 

 

I dunna, if it means anything. Most directors have a dud or two in their filmography. Will have to see how his Batman film turns out before we can declare his directing career as being in a downward spiral. 

[AniNate]

I'm kinda curious about The Star. Wonder if it is indeed SPA trying to go for sentimentality over silliness.

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[filmlover]

I saw Patriots Day today and I'm really not surprised that audiences aren't really going out of their way to catch it. Unless you were completely blacked out during that April week nearly 4 years ago, there's little reason to see it.

[franfar]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I saw Patriots Day today and I'm really not surprised that audiences aren't really going out of their way to catch it. Unless you were completely blacked out during that April week nearly 4 years ago, there's little reason to see it.

Plus, the tragedy was well documented on tape already, and played over and over again in the media. I'm sure it's seared into people's minds already

[YM!]

56 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I'm kinda curious about The Star. Wonder if it is indeed SPA trying to go for sentimentality over silliness.

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Agreed, if it's something special it could do Trolls ($150M) numbers.

[DAR]

Regarding DWA and I still need to finish it but Trollhunters is some of the best stuff they've done in awhile.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I just came out of The Bye Bye Man (no pun), I had a great time, as well as the entire theater which was suprisingly packed!

[franfar]

 

[trifle]

9 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

I just came out of The Bye Bye Man (no pun), I had a great time, as well as the entire theater which was suprisingly packed!

 

Huh.

 

The trailer was awful.

 

If it is still packed today, there must be more to it than they showed us.

[JB33]

2 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

It's not making anywhere near $30-$35m overseas this weekend.

 

Last weekend it made $56.4m which included $30.6m in China, so $25.8m overseas weekend without China.

 

China this weekend looks good for $9m (or just over), and the trends in Rogue One's key overseas markets like Japan and Germany show around 40-55% drops.

 

Looks like it'll make just over $20m for the overseas 3-day weekend. 4-day is irrelevant since MLK Day is an American-only thing - it'll be just a normal weekday overseas. Probably looking at sub-$3m for Rogue One's next overseas Monday for <$25m over the 4-day period, if you really want to count it that way.

 

Right. I had forgotten that it just opened in China last weekend.

 

We'll see how the overseas holds are this weekend. That will tell us how well R1 will do in the long run but either way it's going to soar past $1B.

[Jason]

1 hour ago, Fancyarcher said:

You could also say recent poor exchange rates may have played a part in addition to their being too many animated films released a year. 

 

Yes. The USD has continued to strengthen against world currencies this fall after briefly weakening last winter, and is now at record highs since 2003. It's up about 6% since just this spring/summer against the trade-weighted basked of currencies, which works pretty well as an approximation for box office. Up about 25% since spring/summer of 2014, and about 35% since the summer of 2011.

 

Chart in my signature has overseas gross adjusted for most films in the worldwide top 100 that have been released in the past ten years.

[That One Girl]

9 hours ago, CJohn said:

You need to present me to the parents who took their kiddies to the Jump Street movies.