Weekend Estimates: Lego Batman 55.6M, 50 Shades 46.7M, John Wick 2 30M

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Again, with Lego Batman - its doing great but Animation / Family Film fatigue must set in at some point, particularly with BATB coming in just a few weeks.

I think Boss Baby will be what officially does LEGO Batman since it should benefit from spillover business from Beauty and the Beast (and I guess little boys who don't want to see a "princess" movie).

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Oh yes, same calendar configuration is great - but only in a linear unchanged environment. When you have such a massive shift in how movies work (thursday previews being the norm now instead of rare/unheard of) it makes it much more difficult. Speculation is great but it can also cause unrealistic data points to be considered (such as using The Vow with FSD). Then again, what do we know lol BO changes every year.

 

I am more curious to see how Tuesday plays out on this calendar configuration this year - since Discount Tuesdays are much larger than they were in 2012 (and of course every year before that going back to 2008 when we started to see them pop up.)

 

Tuesday is going to be massive for every movie since it's Valentines Day in addition to being a discount day.  50SD will probably have like a 150% increase from Monday or some crazy shit like that, lol.

[narniadis]

While it doesnt't have the same calendar dates - I think Spongebob 2 is a decent comparison for LBM - similar ODs and no holiday boosts one way or the other and previews on Thursday night. All coupled with the fact that the film is part of a franchise with a built in fan base that didn't reach the absolute heights of box office like it could have.

 

Following Spongebob we get 55.9 so 56m this weekend which is great all things considered.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Fantastic and tastefully done, Mr Wick!

 

Only the weak thinks that Wick can't match original's grosses in 1 week.

 

 

So, Wick can prove in a week that he isn't weak. 30 million will happen. Final domestic grosses:  88 million

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

$90M-$145M OW to $275M-$400M total. $90M/$275M being the floor and $145M/$400M being the hard/unlikely to reach ceiling. 

 

Why would 90 million opening weekend be the floor ? (I would think number around Ant-Man would be the floor, 60 million/175 total)

 

Doctor strange just did 85 with a major box office draw in the lead role, Ant-Man did 57 million. Guardian of the Galaxy is the only non-sequel, non-RDJ to do over 90 million and that had impressive marketing, reviews and felt fresh relative to the other MCU output.

 

Is it because Black Panther has a better release date ?

Edited February 11, 2017 by Barnack

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Tuesday is going to be massive for every movie since it's Valentines Day in addition to being a discount day.  50SD will probably have like a 150% increase from Monday or some crazy shit like that, lol.

 

I actually don't think the Vow's +247% is out of line to think of as a possible base line. I could even see it going crazy at 300% if the stars align just perfectly lol. However of course Wednesday would see a dramatic course correction and with 3 new openers next weekend Thursday business will also take a bite like normal.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Why would 90 million opening weekend by the floor ? (I would think number around Ant-Man would be the floor, 60 million/175 total)

 

Doctor strange just did 85 with a major box office draw in the lead role, Ant-Man did 57 million. Guardian of the Galaxy is the only non-sequel, non-RDJ to do over 90 million and that had impressive marketing, reviews and felt fresh relative to the other MCU output.

 

Is it because Black Panther has a better release date ?

Black Panther not only has President's Day weekend but also has the appeal of being the first black superhero movie in years in the new age of CBMs at the box office which will attract audiences outside the typical MCU audience. It also helps that not only 50SF and Predator will have died down but Disney will market the crap out of it after TLJ opens and will likely put in a great trailer.

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think Boss Baby will be what officially does LEGO Batman since it should benefit from spillover business from Beauty and the Beast (and I guess little boys who don't want to see a "princess" movie).

 

Yeah, having seen the Boss Baby trailer infront of several sold out audiences I don't doubt it will benefit from spillover as well as being a comedy. I don't think it does anything huge mind you, but I wouldn't be surprised with a Blue Sky type of gross along 130m. If nothing else breaks out I could see it push to 150m like Trolls did but I doubt it with BATB sucking the air out of the room.

[Dementeleus]

21 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Alright, I actually found a pretty good comparison for JWC2: Safe House.  Opened on the same exact date as JWC2 in 2012 and it's also an R rated action thriller.

 

Sat. 19.3% increase - 13.1M

 

Sun. 37.1% decrease - 8.24M

 

That would get the weekend total to about 32M.

 

SAFE HOUSE wasn't a sequel and (IMO) likely skewed older and less fan-driven than JW2. 

[filmlover]

Yeah, Safe House was powered by mostly older audiences (like pretty much all Denzel movies), unlike the more youth-skewing John Wick.

[That One Girl]

Just now, filmlover said:

Yeah, Safe House was powered by mostly older audiences (like pretty much all Denzel movies), unlike the more youth-skewing John Wick.

 

Really?  Cause for the first John Wick, 77% of its audience was 25 years and older.  For Safe House, it said 62% was over 30.

[narniadis]

talking about films not pulling weight....

 

The Oscar BP noms this year are reaching for the lowest average since 2006 (59.3) the 9 films currently are at 65.0 on average with Friday's estimates and will be hard pressed to get over the 69.8m that 2011's crop produced, which is also the lowest point since 2006.

 

Flip side though is that for the first time since 2007 all the pics will be over 20m but the grosses for pictures 9-4 are well below the average with the top 3 (Arrival, La La and Hidden Figures) carrying the weight. Thought not as bad as 2014 when American Sniper mightily skewed the numbers as the only film over 100m.

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Really?  Cause for the first John Wick, 77% of its audience was 25 years and older.  For Safe House, it said 62% was over 30.

More than likely when the % are released tomorrow you will find that the audience for JW2 got younger - that is the effect of the digital / home video market for ya

[Avatree]

I haven't seen John Wick but isn't the idea that it's a throwback to old fashioned action films?

[Hatebox]

17 minutes ago, Manchester by the Tree said:

I haven't seen John Wick but isn't the idea that it's a throwback to old fashioned action films?

 

It's more Hong-Kong style action films that old fashioned, per se. Also people liked seeing Reeves kick ass again after the Matrix.

[Maxmoser3]

Saturday will make a helping

[RobinHood26]

2 hours ago, Telemachos said:

 

Current RT score is better than JW2 or LEGO BATMAN.  

 

With only 6 reviews from no top critics, has the lowest RT Audince score I've ever seen and a solid 3.9 on IMDB

 

your taste has fallen, I guess you're just impressed someone your age (92) could produce a movie 

Edited February 11, 2017 by Jay Hollywood

[Dementeleus]

2 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

 

With only 6 reviews from no top critics, has the lowest RT Audince score I've ever seen and a solid 3.9 on IMDB

 

your taste has fallen, I guess you're just impressed someone your age (92) could produce a movie 

 

IMDB is wrong.  

 

Kids these days...

[MrPink]

1 hour ago, Gopher said:

Kind of incredible Wick did that well given 36 mil in new marketplace competition and on the heels of every January action/thriller/horror film. Hoping it's not too frontloaded and word of mouth gives it something of a leggier run. 

 

Curious what kept Batman from breaking out. I wonder if there's an argument similar to Penguins of Madagascar, how Lego Batman has existed in many forms since even before the first LEGO Movie (video games, DTV spinoffs, etc) that there wasn't an extra oomph to get audiences out for this one. As well as we're reaching a saturation point for DC titles (three Batman appearances the last calendar year, yeesh). Good news is it's probably gonna have incredible legs. 

 

Not as big a weekend as we were expecting, but certainly solid overall. Split and Hidden Figures are still doing quite well too. 

 

I figure Batman saturation has hurt the film.

 

I'm not sure if it'll reach 200 but it should get really close.

[The Panda]

Mid-50s is a great OW, and definitely keeps the LEGO franchise alive and profitable.