Friday Numbers (The Vow: 15.4M; Safe House: 13.8M; Star Wars 3D: 8.7M; Journey 2: 6.6M)

[RichWS]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/the-vow-safe-house-channing-tatum-ryan-reynolds-289443Around and around we go. THR is saying $12.5M for Vow and $11.5M for Safe House.

[MrWhoopee]

I wonder if Qui Gon made it to the celebration... :0

[Fanboy]

When was the last time three movies opened to 30M or more?

[DavidBrennan]

Probably not much more than $50m, if that. Either way, Star Wars is one of the few franchises that can justify a larger budget by its merchandise opportunities. But I'd be shocked if this isn't profitable after $100m or so worldwide.

Yeah, and I think that they probably have deeper strategies about just maintaining "brand awareness" and the dollar value of just having the franchise's name mentioned in the press a lot. That's my guess. I have nearly 1,000 posts at TheForce.net, going back to 2004, and it has been DEAD for the past 18 months or so. Not too far back, I was comparing this period of SW fandom to Trek fandom circa 2003 or so: where you're just in this kind of purgatory between eras of the franchise....or its drift into pure niche status. (Although SW was as universal in its appeal as Titanic or Shawshank until the PT came around and turned it into a fanboy market.)

[ecstasy]

http://www.hollywood...reynolds-289443Around and around we go. THR is saying $12.5M for Vow and $11.5M for Safe House.

What the hell? :lol:12.5 was always the prediction for the Vow early on. This is a mess. We're just gonna have to see how this plays out.

[DavidBrennan]

When was the last time three movies opened to 30M or more?

TPM ain't gettin' there. Nikki has it at 28, THR has it at 27. The trendline has been heading steadily in the wrong directions with all the updates.

[RichWS]

Yeah, and I think that they probably have deeper strategies about just maintaining "brand awareness" and the dollar value of just having the franchise's name mentioned in the press a lot. That's my guess.I have nearly 1,000 posts at TheForce.net, going back to 2004, and it has been DEAD for the past 18 months or so. Not too far back, I was comparing this period of SW fandom to Trek fandom circa 2003 or so: where you're just in this kind of purgatory between eras of the franchise....or its drift into pure niche status. (Although SW was as universal in its appeal as Titanic or Shawshank until the PT came around and turned it into a fanboy market.)

It sounds like you have some personal issues with this franchise that you need to work out.

[DavidBrennan]

It sounds like you have some personal issues with this franchise that you need to work out.

Uh....okay. Thanks for the psychoanalysis there.

[Fanboy]

TPM ain't gettin' there. Nikki has it at 28, THR has it at 27. The trendline has been heading steadily in the wrong directions with all the updates.

It still could happen. Even if it doesn't it would be closer to happening than any other weekend last year.

[rockNrollaDIM]

New estimates

1. The Vow (Screen Gems/Sony) NEW [2,958 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $15M, Estimated Weekend $38M

2. Safe House (Universal) NEW [3,119 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $14M, Estimated Weekend $38M

3. Star Wars 3D: Episode I – Phantom Menace (LucasFilm/Fox) NEW [2,655 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $12M, Estimated Weekend $28M

4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (Warner Bros) NEW [3,470 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $5M, Estimated Weekend $18M

$15M !!!! :o

Vow is so hitting $40m OW.

[DavidBrennan]

It still could happen. Even if it doesn't it would be closer to happening than any other weekend last year.

Yeah, I definitely agree it's a surprisingly great weekend. I honestly think that tax rebates are to credit for a large portion of it, but I don't know - that would probably happen this time of year, EVERY year if that were the case. But it seems like everybody I know is getting a check for a grand or two, and a lot of them treat themselves to a fun weekend.

[Totem]

Amazing for Safehouse, unfortunately it isn't one of Denzel's best entries, Unstoppable was probably a more exciting film.

[FilmBuff]

Interesting, Unstoppable was one of my favorite films of 2010. Very underrated film.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Let's put this $15m OD into perspective for The Vow.Letters to Juliet -$5m OD/$13m OW/$53m DOMDear John- $13m OD/$30m OW/$80m DOMNotebook- $5m OD/$13m OW/ $80m DOMI'd guess it will increase tomorrow. Then with Valentine's Day and a long weekend coming up... This could go $40/120m IMO.

[FilmBuff]

The Vow = 1st 100 mil movie. How many predicted this?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

The Vow = 1st 100 mil movie. How many predicted this?

I guess no one...

[junkshop36]

Fox release, which collected more than $1 million at midnight screenings, is closing in on more than $10 million from its Friday showings in 2,655 locations and is looking at a potential three-day haul of more than $27 million.That's from the THR Friday estimate report. The operative words being MORE THAN 10m Friday and MORE THAN 27m weekend.

[DavidBrennan]

The Vow = 1st 100 mil movie. How many predicted this?

To be totally honest....I had to look it up when I saw today's figures to remind myself what it was. I was thinking it might've been one of the Tyler Perry or one of the evangelical movies. (Once I saw it, I remembered, but it never set in my memory as a potential smash at all.)

[RichWS]

I'm curious what this big upswing all means for Ghost Rider next weekend...

[Totem]

I think Ghost Rider will fail miserably while everything else holds well. People were laughing at the trailer before my screening of SH.