Mar 3-5 Weekend - Official Estimates - Logan 85.3m, Get Out 26.1m, Shack 16.1m, LEGO Bat 16.5, BIF 4.9m

[babz06]

4 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

The $100M mark has long seized to be the landmark it once was. As great as those totals sound (and they will surely make those two films profitable for their respective studios) they are not that impressive anymore. La La Land, Hidden Figures, Split and Get Out are no blockbusters. They are very profitable sleeper hits. 

It's not impressive for supposed blockbusters, but for mid-budget films like this it's an important milestone. 

[grim22]

Just now, Telemachos said:

 

Hmm, I don't agree. Yes, for blockbusters 100m isn't much any more. But for an original musical (not based on any prior material?) and for a race/gender-themed biopic about three lesser-known women? Seems a fantastic (and impressive) result for both.

 

To put Hidden Figures' performance in perspective - it is Fox's second biggest domestic grosser in 2016. It is ahead of their entire summer slate of Apocalypse, ID:R etc

 

Total Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
6	Deadpool	Fox	$363,070,709	3,856	$132,434,639	3,558	2/12	6/16
16	Hidden Figures	Fox	$155,940,439	3,416	$515,499	25	12/25	-
17	X-Men: Apocalypse	Fox	$155,442,489	4,153	$65,769,562	4,150	5/27	7/28
18	Trolls	Fox	$153,494,456	4,066	$46,581,142	4,060	11/4	-
19	Kung Fu Panda 3	Fox	$143,528,619	3,987	$41,282,042	3,955	1/29	7/21
27	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox	$103,144,286	4,130	$41,039,944	4,130	6/24	9/15
35	Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children	Fox	$87,242,834	3,835	$28,871,140	3,522	9/30	2/9
49	Ice Age: Collision Course	Fox	$64,063,008	3,997	$21,373,064	3,992	7/22	11/3
54	Why Him?	Fox	$59,743,986	3,008	$11,002,986	2,917	12/23	-
63	Assassin's Creed	Fox	$54,635,678

[PPZVGOS]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

Hmm, I don't agree. Yes, for blockbusters 100m isn't much any more. But for an original musical (not based on any prior material?) and for a race/gender-themed biopic about three lesser-known women? Seems a fantastic (and impressive) result for both.

 

I am not disputing the obvious fact that all of these four films have achieved fantastic financial results and will please their producers and studios to a very high degree. I am saying that these numbers are not as great as they sound. There have been many small-budget films throughout history  that have brought in huge numbers at the box-office. Just to give some examples, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, There's Something About Mary, Good Will Hunting, Pulp Fiction, As Good As It Gets, The Waterboy. All those movies made a hell of a lot more if you adjust for CPI inflation than our current crop of sleeper hits. 

[narniadis]

100m is still an important marker for residuals and TV deals so as long as that is the case it will be considered important. 

 

Now I think we can agree that 250-300 is probably a better marker for the supposed "blockbuster" but again that's relative to expectations. 

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

To give a couple possibilities:

 

- far more known and iconic than Dr. Strange, and a wider audience demo than the dark, savage, and R-rated LOGAN?

 

Expectancy is probably also buoyed by SS's over-performance.

 

 

Strange and Logan offered something very refreshing and novel in their own ways.

 

DCEU has a poor reputation so people will mostly support WW out of obligation rather than being genuinely intrigued.

 

Also it's rare for solo origin films to cross 200 m DOM.

 

Spider-man, Batman, Iron Man, and Superman are the exceptions but they're all flagship characters.

[narniadis]

Just now, PPZVGOS said:

 

I am not disputing the obvious fact that all of these four films have achieved fantastic financial results and will please their producers and studios to a very high degree. I am saying that these numbers are not as great as they sound. There have been many small-budget films throughout history  that have brought in huge numbers at the box-office. Just to give some examples, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, There's Something About Mary, Good Will Hunting, Pulp Fiction, As Good As It Gets, The Waterboy. All those movies made a hell of a lot more if you adjust for CPI inflation than our current crop of sleeper hits. 

 

However box office isn't a vacuum and those films may or may not have done their "adjusted" numbers in today's environment. Inflation and adjusting makes for great conversation but that is all. 

[chrisman0606]

11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

It had better, one of the best superhero films of the past decade. Everyone on BOT should contribute.

I hope it does well and legs out but it has competition in the following weeks.

Edited March 4, 2017 by chrisman0606

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

I am not disputing the obvious fact that all of these four films have achieved fantastic financial results and will please their producers and studios to a very high degree. I am saying that these numbers are not as great as they sound. There have been many small-budget films throughout history  that have brought in huge numbers at the box-office. Just to give some examples, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, There's Something About Mary, Good Will Hunting, Pulp Fiction, As Good As It Gets, The Waterboy. All those movies made a hell of a lot more if you adjust for CPI inflation than our current crop of sleeper hits. 

 

True -- but all those are enormous hits, and in many cases had legendary legs/runs. In terms of AS GOOD AS IT GETS and THE WATERBOY, they were also getting generated by huge stars who were still a major draw with their target audiences. Adding LA LA LAND and HIDDEN FIGURES to your list is a huge compliment to them -- that's why it feels odd that you're sort of pooh-poohing the result.

[PPZVGOS]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

To put Hidden Figures' performance in perspective - it is Fox's second biggest domestic grosser in 2016. It is ahead of their entire summer slate of Apocalypse, ID:R etc

 

Total Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
6	Deadpool	Fox	$363,070,709	3,856	$132,434,639	3,558	2/12	6/16
16	Hidden Figures	Fox	$155,940,439	3,416	$515,499	25	12/25	-
17	X-Men: Apocalypse	Fox	$155,442,489	4,153	$65,769,562	4,150	5/27	7/28
18	Trolls	Fox	$153,494,456	4,066	$46,581,142	4,060	11/4	-
19	Kung Fu Panda 3	Fox	$143,528,619	3,987	$41,282,042	3,955	1/29	7/21
27	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox	$103,144,286	4,130	$41,039,944	4,130	6/24	9/15
35	Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children	Fox	$87,242,834	3,835	$28,871,140	3,522	9/30	2/9
49	Ice Age: Collision Course	Fox	$64,063,008	3,997	$21,373,064	3,992	7/22	11/3
54	Why Him?	Fox	$59,743,986	3,008	$11,002,986	2,917	12/23	-
63	Assassin's Creed	Fox	$54,635,678

 

Yes, because all their films of 2016 (except Deadpool & Hidden Figures) were flops, some relative flops (X-Men: Apocalypse, Kung-Fu Panda 3) and others absolute flops (ID:2, Assassin's Creed, Ice Age) 

[Maxmoser3]

Decent starts! The Shack will debut in the mid teens shocks me, and Logan doing north of $80 million ow was expected but really good and Get Out will be a box office juggernaut with amazing holds!  Overall you heard this from Max Lee Moser III(my real full name) or Mr. Smack Dem Cheeks but with all honesty this March will be the best March in history(in terms of Box Office).

[PPZVGOS]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

However box office isn't a vacuum and those films may or may not have done their "adjusted" numbers in today's environment. Inflation and adjusting makes for great conversation but that is all. 

 

Notice that I picked the metric that is more fair/lenient to contemporary movies, namely CPI inflation (i.e. general economy-wide inflation, and not ticket-price inflation) Sleeper hits of the past easily surpass our current crop by a massive margin even under the most favorable metrics. 

 

3 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

True -- but all those are enormous hits, and in many cases had legendary legs/runs. In terms of AS GOOD AS IT GETS and THE WATERBOY, they were also getting generated by huge stars who were still a major draw with their target audiences. Adding LA LA LAND and HIDDEN FIGURES to your list is a huge compliment to them -- that's why it feels odd that you're sort of pooh-poohing the result.

 

I'm not pooh-poohing their results, I am merely putting their great results into some historical perspective. Sleeper hits have become rarer and rarer in recent years, and these four movies have been a very pleasant surprise, but we are still way below historical trends in the sleeper-hit category. 

 

Before The Waterboy, Adam Sandler was not a household name, it was his first mega-hit. As for your point about "huge stars", I totally agree, but will also add that this is another marked difference of Hollywood's current phase with the past. There used to be A-list stars that could propel movies at the box-office. This is definitely no longer the case, we now have a star-less Hollywood. 

[kayumanggi]

Btw, that GET OUT hold is amazing.

 

Universal is going to have three 100 M movies before THE FATE OF THE FURIOUS even opens.

 

SPLIT

GET OUT

FIFTY SHADES DARKER

[Jonwo]

42 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Why would Wonder Woman do so much better than Dr. Strange or Logan?

 

I'm going to say 70/165 m for now.

 

Wonder Woman is the most iconic female superhero, and a solo film has been long overdue, right now I'm thinking $100m OW but i wouldn't be surprised if it outgrosses MOS OW

[Nova]

For mid to low budget movies the $100M mark is a great accomplishment. Also remember that generally the smaller the budget, the less a studio spends on marketing which again shows crossing $100M is a great feat. 

[YM!]

While Wonder Woman won't go under $200M, it won't go over TASM domestic.

[narniadis]

27 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

Notice that I picked the metric that is more fair/lenient to contemporary movies, namely CPI inflation (i.e. general economy-wide inflation, and not ticket-price inflation) Sleeper hits of the past easily surpass our current crop by a massive margin even under the most favorable metrics. 

 

 

I'm not pooh-poohing their results, I am merely putting their great results into some historical perspective. Sleeper hits have become rarer and rarer in recent years, and these four movies have been a very pleasant surprise, but we are still way below historical trends in the sleeper-hit category. 

 

Before The Waterboy, Adam Sandler was not a household name, it was his first mega-hit. As for your point about "huge stars", I totally agree, but will also add that this is another marked difference of Hollywood's current phase with the past. There used to be A-list stars that could propel movies at the box-office. This is definitely no longer the case, we now have a star-less Hollywood. 

 

To a point though I would argue that you are poo pooing their results because you are comparing them to a time that they can't compete in. Waterboy was 20 Years ago and many things are different that keep sleeper type hits from happening in the way that you are saying they used to. However as Tele already pointed out some of your choices (MBFGW and AGAIG) were oddities for their day and not the norm either which was also different from say Jaws or Love Story 20 Years before them. 

 

It's gets difficult to adequately quantify boxoffice runs against others when you get more than 10 years past. Heck look at 2007 and see how some things have changed. Closest you get to LA La and HF would be Juno which surprise (not) was the awards season darling that found GA acceptance. 

[Kraken]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

Spider-man, Batman, Iron Man, and Superman are the exceptions but they're all flagship characters.

 

Iron Man has no place in that list. He was a solid B-lister until RDJ made him what he is now. Do you know who does belong there based on decades long worldwide popular culture awareness? Wonder Woman.

[Brainiac5]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

 

Why would Wonder Woman do so much better than Dr. Strange or Logan?

 

I'm going to say 70/165 m for now.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/2017-social-media-heat-map/

[brian.jensen.507464]

"Logan" might make 85 to 90 million dollars on its opening weekend. Maybe close to 100 million. This film is a huge success so far, and it's a surprisingly great film.


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[Ethan Hunt]

In theatre for Logan