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YourMother's Insane Wet, then Spooky, then Festive 2017 Domestic Predictions

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Following in the vain of @WrathOfHan and to a lesser extent @Ethan Hunt's procrastinated 2017 predictions, I decided to do one of my own originally just for Summer of 2017 domestic, but due to break giving you guys a treat and putting my predictions in for Fall and Winter!

 

 

5/5/17: Guardians of The Galaxy Volume 2 (Starring Star-Munch)

$145M OW/$350M Domestic (2.41x) 

As usual of the start of Summer, kids are out of school, beaches are full of people, Cheap TV Smurf releases a movie meanwhile Disney signs checks for good reviews. This time, without Big Daddy Downey as Man-child Smurf. Although trailer views have been lacking compared to other movies such as JL, SMH, Alien, and IT, and arguably hype has been lackluster, Disney/Cheap TV Smurf turns it around mid April as usual, and while I don't see $400M+ domestic, I see a slight increase thanks to it being of the MCU's most beloved titles, and the fact that may play out as more of a family film OW/presales. Unlike AOU, this seems likely for positive reviews and unlike CW you don't need to know 6-7 films prior to understand. The only two sources currently tracking is pro.Boxoffice.com, which is predicting $160M/$400M and @EmpireCity, who was seen good presales for it.

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5/12/17:

King Arthur: Legend of The Sword (by GOD Ritchie)

$27M/$75M (2.75x)

To be honest, although this has decent trailer views, this looks like something that may be forgotten OW but have great legs for a movie like this and could draw out some older audiences, like a bigger The Man From U.N.C.L.E.

 

Lowriders

$5M/$16M (3.2x)

This is not only I haven't heard about, but found out about it's existence today. Predicting pretty low numbers for this but good legs.

 

Snatched

$18M/$60M (3.33x)

2017 has been a pretty rough month for non animated comedies, however with Amy Schumer and a good release date (Mother's Day Weekend) along with a lack of female driven comedies this should do solid business. 

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One last one for today:

5/19/17

Alien: Covenant (Life 2)

$45M/$110M (2.44x)

With surprisingly good reactions and trailer views, along with 2017 being the year of horror, perhaps Alien could surprise us despite the bad taste Prometheus left in the mouth of the general audience.

 

Diary of A Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul (and still I can't believe it's not Rodrick)

$8.3M/$25M (3x)

With the large amount of dislikes per trailer, outcry against the new actor for Rodrick, and the down spiral of the Wimpy Kid franchise this looks like another Smurfs, except not even the tweens (8-12 years old) will flock to it.

 

Everything, Everything

$7M/$24M (3.43x)

This seems likely to be another surprise but here on the forums.

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5/26/17

Pirates of The Caribbean: Dead Man Tells No Tales (Depp Trouble?)

$85M (3 Day)/$115M (4 Day)/$240M (2.82x via 3 day/2.09x via 4 day)

With good reactions, strong hype, great trailer views, and as returning part of a beloved Disney franchise, along with great marketing (with a decent ad for Dave and Busters), I think this could be a stronger Men In Black 3, possibly reaching higher heights if Disney pays for some good reviews.

 

Baywatch (Horrible Beaches)

$40M (3 Day)/$60M (5 Day)/$140M (3.5x via 3 day/2.33x via 5 day)

Thanks to lack of big comedies in 2017, along with The Rock and Efron, hype along with reactions similar to 21 Jump Street, this could be a surprise breakout for most members here and a hit for Paramount finally. I think we should be expecting a SEAquel soon.

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6/2/17 

Wonder Woman (Gurl!)

$105M/$255M (2.43x)

Being the first female superhero movie in the revitalized age of superhero movies, I can guarantee you Wonder Woman won't miss $200M domestic, or an $85M OW. The question is how big will WW be? Considering the negative reception by critics/mixed WOM of the DCEU, and what could be surprisingly effective family competition from CU and Pirates, I don't see $300M but it wouldn't surprise me either, again this is the first big female led superhero movie in a while.

 

Captain Underpants (Triggered Nudists)

$35M/$120M (3.43x)

Although it had it's first trailer 2 weeks ago, CU has a lot going for it. The last big family film (Smurfs) will finish around $50M domestic, and no one cares about Spark or Wimpy Kid 4. CU is also based of a bestselling children's books, has the potential nostalgia card, and DWA's films has been massively underestimated here. However with Cars 3 and DM3 around the corner, this will be as high as Underpants flies.

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6/9/17 

The Mummy (Meltdown of @WrathOfHan and @Alli?)

$60M/$140M (2.33x)

This reminds me soo much of Bourne/Kong/STB. Decent hype, slightly underestimated, and does decent bank, hopefully it'll be enough for the UMCU.

 

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9 minutes ago, YourMother said:

6/9/17 

The Mummy (Meltdown of @WrathOfHan and @Alli?)

$60M/$140M (2.33x)

This reminds me soo much of Bourne/Kong/STB. Decent hype, slightly underestimated, and does decent bank, hopefully it'll be enough for the UMCU.

 

:redcapes:  A little too much for my liking, but i'll take it.

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9 hours ago, YourMother said:

6/2/17 

Wonder Woman (Gurl!)

$105M/$255M (2.43x)

Being the first female superhero movie in the revitalized age of superhero movies, I can guarantee you Wonder Woman won't miss $200M domestic, or an $85M OW. The question is how big will WW be? Considering the negative reception by critics/mixed WOM of the DCEU, and what could be surprisingly effective family competition from CU and Pirates, I don't see $300M but it wouldn't surprise me either, again this is the first big female led superhero movie in a while.

 

 

 

 

Low multiplier. Legs will be better

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15 hours ago, YourMother said:

Following in the vain of @WrathOfHan and to a lesser extent @Ethan Hunt's procrastinated 2017 predictions, I decided to do one of my own for Summer 2017 domestic.

 

 

5/5/17: Guardians of The Galaxy Volume 2 (Starring Star-Munch)

$145M OW/$350M Domestic (2.41x) 

As usual of the start of Summer, kids are out of school, beaches are full of people, Marvel releases a movie meanwhile Disney signs checks for good reviews. This time, without Big Daddy Downey as Iron Man. Although trailer views have been lacking compared to other movies such as JL, SMH, Alien, and IT, and arguably hype has been lackluster, Disney/Marvel turns it around mid April as usual, and while I don't see $400M+ domestic, I see a slight increase thanks to it being of the MCU's most beloved titles, and the fact that may play out as more of a family film OW/presales. Unlike AOU, this seems likely for positive reviews and unlike CW you don't need to know 6-7 films prior to understand. The only two sources currently tracking is pro.Boxoffice.com, which is predicting $160M/$400M and @EmpireCity, who was seen good presales for it.

I expect an OW like that but better legs. I think that with $145 it will pass $400 (except it's really bad). The first movie was such a crowd pleaser that i expect a big surprise over here.

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