The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Just now, Sunny Max said:

agreed     any update regarding presales ...???

@Deep Wang Got anything juicy for us?

[YM!]

Toy Story 4 (4 before previews, 5 before release)

 North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

6/20/19

 

6:00 - 65/301 - UltraScreen 

8:30 - 17/301 - UltraScreen 

10:45 - 11/301 

 

Running:

547% Of Pets 2 ($255.2M OW)

422% of Coco ($214.7M OW)

372% of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ($163.7M OW)

332% of Pokémon: Detective Pikachu ($181M OW)

211% of Aladdin ($193.4M OW)

 

Yeah, I’m on board the $150M+ OW train now and these comps suggest Incredibles 2 OW record may be in store as well as $200M OW.

Edited June 16, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[john2000]

17 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Toy Story 4 (4 before previews, 5 before release)

 North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

6/20/19

 

6:00 - 65/301 - UltraScreen 

8:30 - 17/301 - UltraScreen 

10:45 - 11/301 

 

Running:

547% Of Pets 2 ($255.2M OW)

422% of Coco ($214.7M OW)

372% of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ($163.7M OW)

332% of Pokémon: Detective Pikachu ($181M OW)

211% of Aladdin ($193.4M OW)

 

Yeah, I’m on board the $150M+ OW train now and these comps suggest Incredibles 2 OW record may be in store as well as $200M OW.

could you do the same for spiderman ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

25 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

agreed     any update regarding presales ...???

Saw this just as I came to post . Keep in mind that I'm comparing I2 at the end of the previous day to TS4 at 1 pm, so the numbers will be slightly skewed in favor of TS4. 

 

TS4 - Thurs: 7759 (+602) (59% of I2 at the same point), Fri: 8350 (+821) (61% of I2), Sat: 6315 (+656) (65% of I2), Sun: 3441 (+328) (62% of I2), total: 25865 (+2407) (62% of I2 at the same point), daily gain: 2407 (68% of the comparable gain for I2)

 

I2 - Thurs: 13054 (+925), Fri: 13652 (+1234), Sat: 9747 (+878), Sun: 5565 (+481), Total: 42018 (+3518)

 

I'd really like to see this have a big Sunday surge. It will do well regardless but for 150+, it needs to pick up a lot and quickly

[YM!]

17 minutes ago, john2000 said:

could you do the same for spiderman ?

Unsure about doing FFH as no midnight comparisons but Dark Phoenix might be a good comp for midnights as I expect those to be a big on the small side despite the big six day ($190M-$200M seems right)

[Sunny Max]

Just now, Menor said:

Saw this just as I came to post . Keep in mind that I'm comparing I2 at the end of the previous day to TS4 at 1 pm, so the numbers will be slightly skewed in favor of TS4. 

 

TS4 - Thurs: 7759 (+602) (59% of I2 at the same point), Fri: 8350 (+821) (61% of I2), Sat: 6315 (+656) (65% of I2), Sun: 3441 (+328) (62% of I2), total: 25865 (+2407) (62% of I2 at the same point), daily gain: 2407 (68% of the comparable gain for I2)

 

I2 - Thurs: 13054 (+925), Fri: 13652 (+1234), Sat: 9747 (+878), Sun: 5565 (+481), Total: 42018 (+3518)

 

I'd really like to see this have a big Sunday surge. It will do well regardless but for 150+, it needs to pick up a lot and quickly

thnxx for this post ... we are still behind ... yeah for 150 it need to pick-up a lot & quickly .. still few days left .. so will see what happens in coming days ... interesting week this would be 

[Menor the Destroyer]

39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@Deep Wang Got anything juicy for us?

I thought his source stopped giving him #s.

[john2000]

18 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

thnxx for this post ... we are still behind ... yeah for 150 it need to pick-up a lot & quickly .. still few days left .. so will see what happens in coming days ... interesting week this would be 

i wouldnt say that ,14 mill previews and 150 is locked

Edited June 16, 2019 by john2000

[john2000]

the best way to guess the weekend is from previes, does anyone have info about the previews ? except @porthos range 13-16 ?

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i wouldnt say that ,14 mill previews and 150 is locked

i also think the same .... my dear friend ..

 

$14 M previews & $150 M OW is locked now ... (could be more.)

[Porthos]

36 minutes ago, Menor said:

I thought his source stopped giving him #s.

Really? I must have missed him saying that.  Shame if so.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Porthos said:

Really? I must have missed him saying that.  Shame if so.

Thinking back on it I'm not so sure, I thought I remembered him saying that but I can't place it. 

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

Thinking back on it I'm not so sure, I thought I remembered him saying that but I can't place it. 

I remember him saying he couldn't get an update one time (I think it was toward the end of Wick 3's run, maybe?), but not that his source had been silenced.

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

the best way to guess the weekend is from previes, does anyone have info about the previews ? except @porthos range 13-16 ?

Nobody has actual overall data about the previews numbers on this board. Guesses on presales yes, previews data overall no. 

Please take a moment and try to remember that everything happening here is guess work based on past performance and singular sold seat counts at local theaters. 

Even Rth, the head "resident god" with insider info does not give actual preview numbers out as it breaks all the rules. They also cannot be given until after they take place which wont be until Thursday evening. 

We may, due to the hard work in this thread have a general idea of where the numbers are going by early Thursday evening, but family films themselves are harder to track do to walk up business which presales cannot account for. 

 

This is not being mean, just having seen the last week or so a flood of assumptions in this thread, needing to ask yall to rethink how you approach this stuff. 

Ultimately we have no answer beyond "its selling or its not." 

[Cooper Legion]

Ultimately it’s all educated guesses, yes, and I definitely see plenty of people expecting (or claiming) a higher level of precision than is really possible 5 days out. OTOH, I feel like you're underselling how educated these educated guesses are @narniadis. This thread has generally been pretty on point (in 2019 especially) for what previews will be on the Sunday before release.     

 

We can’t say “previews will be 13.5” or anything, but we’ve got a pretty decent idea of what’s likely and what’s not.

[john2000]

35 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Nobody has actual overall data about the previews numbers on this board. Guesses on presales yes, previews data overall no. 

Please take a moment and try to remember that everything happening here is guess work based on past performance and singular sold seat counts at local theaters. 

Even Rth, the head "resident god" with insider info does not give actual preview numbers out as it breaks all the rules. They also cannot be given until after they take place which wont be until Thursday evening. 

We may, due to the hard work in this thread have a general idea of where the numbers are going by early Thursday evening, but family films themselves are harder to track do to walk up business which presales cannot account for. 

 

This is not being mean, just having seen the last week or so a flood of assumptions in this thread, needing to ask yall to rethink how you approach this stuff. 

Ultimately we have no answer beyond "its selling or its not." 

again i asked if there is any info for the previews based from the presales, so to see if the info/guess we have about them is the same, except porthos, data that points to that range, of course everything is a guess , plus my comment was more that if someone has some data for that topic if he could share it , thats it, so we could see a different point of view, i never indicated that anyone should tell me or anything like that ( and yeah i know that you were speaking in general)

Edited June 16, 2019 by john2000

[Menor the Destroyer]

28 minutes ago, john2000 said:

again i asked if there is any info for the previews based from the presales, so to see if the info/guess we have about them is the same, except porthos, data that points to that range, of course everything is a guess , plus my comment was more that if someone has some data for that topic if he could share it , thats it, so we could see a different point of view, i never indicated that anyone should tell me or anything like that ( and yeah i know that you were speaking in general)

From the Fandango data and assuming TS4 is a bit more walkup based than I2 I'd guess around 13

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

From the Fandango data and assuming TS4 is a bit more walkup based than I2 I'd guess around 13

$13 ..??  very less ...  😕 

 

 should be minimum $14 To $15 M 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

From the Fandango data and assuming TS4 is a bit more walkup based than I2 I'd guess around 13

to toy story 4 is a big questionmark as a movie(except that it will be big), i am really curious to see its ow , and ww final

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Sunny Max said:

$13 ..??  very less ...  😕 

 

 should be minimum $14 To $15 M 

again like many people here are saying, the range is 13-16 as of now , where it will end up is anyones guess