The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

@Nova 

 

One thing we should to keep in mind on comps from that doc in the future is that it rolls in all early showings into the preview number.  That's why Aquaman (which I was trying to also use as a keyword search) for instance is listed at 13.7 even though it's previews were 'really' 9m (13.7 = 2.9 Sat + 1.8 Wed + 9.0 Thur).

 

Just something to keep in mind for SLOP2 and any other films that have early access/atom/whatever showings.

Between these early fan events and 4PM Thursday showings my box office ability to make good comps has gone out the window 

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, Nova said:

The question is whether anyone bothered to get data from them. I tried to go back into the thread to see any comps for similar films but unfortunately there wasn’t any data. 

 

Hence why i used the ones I’ve been using lol 

*checks doc*

 

Poop.  Rampage wasn't listed there, near as I can tell.  Tomb Raider was though.

 

TO THE GOOGLE MACHINE!

 

Rampage:      2.4m previews. 35.75m OW. (14.896x)

Tomb Raider: 2.1m previews. 23.63m OW. (11.252x)

Edited May 2, 2019 by Porthos
Updated with official BOM numbers not Deadline est

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*checks doc*

 

Poop.  Rampage wasn't listed there, near as I can tell.  Tomb Raider was though.

 

TO THE GOOGLE MACHINE!

 

Rampage:      2.4m previews. 35.7m OW. (14.875x)

Tomb Raider: 2.1m previews. 23.6m OW. (11.238x)

Dumbo had 2.6 million previews and did 45 million 

 

those 2 other movies previews to OW seems low 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

Dumbo had 2.6 million previews and did 45 million 

 

those 2 other movies previews to OW seems low 

I don’t think Dumbo is a good comp anymore. 

[Porthos]

Just now, Minnale101 said:

Dumbo had 2.6 million previews and did 45 million 

 

those 2 other movies previews to OW seems low 

Could be the difference between what was supposed to be more of a family flick and action-adventure orientated video game adaptations.

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*checks doc*

 

Poop.  Rampage wasn't listed there, near as I can tell.  Tomb Raider was though.

 

TO THE GOOGLE MACHINE!

 

Rampage:      2.4m previews. 35.75m OW. (14.896x)

Tomb Raider: 2.1m previews. 23.63m OW. (11.252x)

Okay so anywhere from an 11-14x but I may lower that to 9-10 just cause of what @Perfundle mentioned in their post plus presales haven’t gotten way bigger now. 

[Minnale101]

Just now, Porthos said:

Could be the difference between what was supposed to be more of a family flick and action-adventure orientated video game adaptations.

That’s true. The best thing is too be a mix of both to attract both audiences hahaha

[Porthos]

Just now, Nova said:

Okay so anywhere from an 11-14x but I may lower that to 9-10 just cause of what @Perfundle mentioned in their post plus presales haven’t gotten way bigger now. 

I mean, I've been spitballing a 10x multi in my head or a while now, but I am a rank amateur on that sort of thing, so for heaven's sake don't take my opinion there as worth very much. 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I mean, I've been spitballing a 10x multi in my head or a while now, but I am a rank amateur on that sort of thing, so for heaven's sake don't take my opinion there as worth very much. 

I think a 10x multiplier is fair though. I can’t imagine it going much higher than that and if it goes lower, I’d be shocked just cause that’s CBM territory and well it hasn’t been selling like one 

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, Nova said:

Okay so anywhere from an 11-14x but I may lower that to 9-10 just cause of what @Perfundle mentioned in their post plus presales haven’t gotten way bigger now. 

Why would Pikachu go lower, besides I don’t think those are fair or good comparisons because even as they’re all video game movie, Pikachu is still a PG rated family film.

 

Something along the lines of Dumbo or Disney live action remakes seem right.

Edited May 2, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Nova]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Why would Pikachu go lower, besides I don’t think those are fair comparisons because even as they’re all video game movie, Pikachu is still a PG rated family film.

 

Something along the lines of Dumbo or Disney live action remakes seem right.

The only live action Disney comps we have are Dumbo, CR and BATB. Neither of which have been good comps cause when comparing it to either one of them, the data is all over the place. Then again it’s pretty much like that with any comp 

[YM!]

Somewhere between 16x-20x seems right on the money for Pikachu using comparisons like older skewing family films like Dumbo, Christopher Robin, Dragon 3 and A Wrinkle In Time

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

I think people are looking at Pika Pika with wrong expectations. This is neither a sequel to Jurassic World, one of the biggest movies of all time, nor is this a Potter-Franchise.

I'd rather look at movies like Despicable me 2/3, Minions or Pets as a perfect comparison.

 

So let's do this.  

 

SLOP:    5.3m previews. 104.35m OW. (19.689x)

Minons: 6.2m previews. 115.72m OW. (18.665x)

Dis 3:    4.1m previews.   72.43m OW. (17.666x)

 

----

Well, we'll see.  But those are all pure cartoons, so I'd be hesitant to expect those as comps.  But, hey, I ain't the expert when it comes to internal multipliers and which movies are good comps.

 

So you asked, and there you are. 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So let's do this.  

 

SLOP:    5.3m previews. 104.35m OW. (19.689x)

Minons: 6.2m previews. 115.72m OW. (18.665x)

Dis 3:    4.1m previews.   72.43m OW. (17.666x)

 

----

Well, we'll see.  But those are all pure cartoons, so I'd be hesitant to expect those as comps.  But, hey, I ain't the expert when it comes to internal multipliers and which movies are good comps.

 

So you asked, and there you are. 

But again both Tomb Raider and Rampage are PG-13 and even though Pikachu is live action, the PG rating guarantees they’ll be a stronger family spread than the other two could ever get.

[Biggestgeekever]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So let's do this.  

 

SLOP:    5.3m previews. 104.35m OW. (19.689x)

Minons: 6.2m previews. 115.72m OW. (18.665x)

Dis 3:    4.1m previews.   72.43m OW. (17.666x)

 

----

Well, we'll see.  But those are all pure cartoons, so I'd be hesitant to expect those as comps.  But, hey, I ain't the expert when it comes to internal multipliers and which movies are good comps.

 

So you asked, and there you are. 

Those did release in the summer, though, so that's gonna skew the multiplier. Alice 2 was 17.8 (26.8/1.5) and that was a sequel but of course a pretty low hyped one.

 

I do feel like maybe we're getting a little lost looking trying to find comps at this point.

 

[TalismanRing]

I'd assume they hired Reynolds specifically to appeal to older teens and young adults in addition to family audiences.  Those who grew up in the Pokeman boom are mainly in their 20s and early 30s are a strong core fan base and could skew it from a family audience base.

 

Meanwhile, Dumbo is an 80 yr old property, Christopher Robin is even older - and while targeted to family and young children they also targeted older adults who grew up with the properties from their years on TV.  They were in large, not teen/young adult appealing. 

[stealthyfrog]

I don't think there is any one comp that works for Pika Pika. It's a PG live-action family flick but with a built-in fanbase that will probably come out opening weekend to see it. I think its legs will fall lower than the average family film but higher than, say, CBMs.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I'd assume they hired Reynolds specifically to appeal to older teens and young adults in addition to family audiences.  Those who grew up in the Pokeman boom are mainly in their 20s and early 30s are a strong core fan base and could skew it from a family audience base.

 

Meanwhile, Dumbo is an 80 yr old property, Christopher Robin is even older - and while targeted to family and young children they also targeted older adults who grew up with the properties from their years on TV.  They were in large, not teen/young adult appealing. 

Again I really think Dragon 3 is a good comparison as it had some of the teen/young adult audiences and let’s not pretend that both Dumbo and Christopher Robin didn’t do good in presales, and it was obvious it had a more adult presence than regular animation.

[Lake]

I mean, WB even sponsored Coachella's Neon Carnival. They're definitely hoping the young adults show up.

 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2019 by Lake

[TalismanRing]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Again I really think Dragon 3 is a good comparison as it had some of the teen/young adult audiences and let’s not pretend that both Dumbo and Christopher Robin didn’t do good in presales, and it was obvious it had a more adult presence than regular animation.

Yes as I pointed out they appealed more to adult as in more mature adults - not teens and early twenty somethings in addition to the family audience.   Put it this way, 35 -90 year olds would be more likely to watch CR or Dumbo than a Pokeman movie.   While 13-30 year olds would probably be more likely to gravitate to Pokeman, especially one voiced by Deadpool.

 

Dragon 3 would be good except it had those early previews that skewed numbers.  Incredibles 2 is probably another good comp - or as good as we're going to get.