The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Seto Kaiba]

Deadline:

Quote

Any sweat Sony is apt to endure this weekend with the potential under-performance of Men in Black: International will be extremely alleviated in less than three weeks when their Marvel Cinematic Universe co-production Spider-Man: Far From Home puts summer back on track with a $170M-plus opening over six days.

And there’s a bulk of historical and current B.O. and social diagnostics to support that projection. Read on.

One of the top tracking services has Far From Home at $165M, and more aggressive box office analysts believe the movie has a shot to make $200M (though some say that would be a shocker). Sony is being very conservative with $154M for the Tuesday-Sunday spread. We here tracking demos for Far From Home are on par with Captain America: Civil War ($179.1M). Of course, Far From Home is skewing more male with older females over 25 the lower demo — but even that is super strong we hear. The first Spider-Man: Homecoming, a team up with Sony and Disney’s MCU characters, opened to $117M over the July 7-9, 2017 weekend and reps Sony’s second highest domestic opening of all-time behind 2007’s Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M).

https://deadline.com/2019/06/spider-man-far-from-home-box-office-projection-avengers-endgame-1202632449/

[Menor the Destroyer]

26 minutes ago, Seto Kaiba said:

Deadline:

https://deadline.com/2019/06/spider-man-far-from-home-box-office-projection-avengers-endgame-1202632449/

If tracking is on par with civil war shouldn't that be a 200+ six day lol

[Fanboy]

I thought that was for the 3 day for a second and I flipped out. I can see a 200M 6-day pretty easy. Homecoming did $154M 6-day opening on a Friday without a holiday, so $170M is definitely the floor. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah I think tracking will go up once Sony goes all out with the marketing post-MIB International 

[Cap]

Thorkyrie AU

Thursday - Final Update

 

June 13, 2019 - Thursday Previews - Final Sales
Movie	Sold	Total	%
Lincoln Square 13
Thorkyrie AU	653	2331	28.01%
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Thorkyrie AU	109	1337	8.15%

 

* I forgot that MIB stated at 4PM so I don't' have the 4PM showings from today, only yesterday.  

 

Thursday Comps
Movie	Comp %	Estimate
Lincoln Square 13
Aladdin	78%	5.47
Godzilla	59%	3.73
Dark Phoenix	47%	2.36
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Aladdin	90%	6.3
Godzilla	54%	3.41
Dark Phoenix	110%	5.5

 

Looks at those Comps...

 

 

I have a more complete picture of LS, so I would say the 2.36 to 3.41 range.

Edited June 14, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Menor the Destroyer]

2.5-3 for MIB based on Pulse

[XO21]

Lol how $200m a shocker, Transformers (2007) did it back then...

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	92	10342	12459	16.99%

 

Total Showings Added Today:            2

Total Seats Added Today:               150

Total Seats Sold Today:                  158

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.2473x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 7 days before release.

1.8017x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 7 days before release.

2.1002x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 7 days before release.

 

T-7:

Pika         75 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/66 showings   |     6631/7573 seats left    |  12.44% sold]

Aladdin    98 tickets sold [0 sellouts/74 showings   |    9543/10718 seats left    |  10.96% sold]

KotM      102 tickets sold [0 sellouts/98 showings   |  12732/13740 seats left    |   7.34% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

0.9970x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 7 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-7:

JW2            122 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |    9272/11263 seats left  | 17.68% sold]

TS4 (JW)     147 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings   |    8803/10788 seats left  | 18.40% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	17	2428	2793	13.07%

 

Total Showings Added Since Sun:        3

Total Seats Added Since Sun:           455

Total Seats Sold Since Sun:                19

 

No comps at the moment. 

 

====

 

Starting tomorrow I'll switch to daily updates and probably rope in the Limited Engagement Tuesday Sneaks comp for FB2. One more theater added showings today, FWIW.  So the sneaks comp might start being of less value.  Probably still the best I have at the moment for a variety of reasons, though (still playing at select theaters.  Far closer in showings than anything else I have [6 vs 17], probably when the most die-hard of the die-hard fans will showing up).

 

If I get too many more showings, might just have to nuke it as a comp and look for something else.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Reupping the Rolling 24hr Fandango Tracker for a while for TS4 ramp-up purposes:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-13 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1       17.095% 11056   Men in Black International [combined] 
2	16.680%	10787	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	12.809%	8297	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	08.081%	5226	Rocketman
5	06.773%	4380	Dark Phoenix
6	05.707%	3691	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
7	05.005%	3237	Toy Story 4 [combined]
8	04.395%	2842	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	04.387%	2837	Shaft (2019)
10	03.535%	2286	Late Night (2019)

[Joyous Legion]

Using Uncle Drew as a Pulse comp Shaft’s numbers would be about an 800k previews and 3.6M true Fri.

[DAJK]

Yikes, MiB bombed in Vic tonight. 39% Dark Phoenix (1.95M), 36.7% Godzilla (2.3M), 29% Aladdin (2.06M). The most positive recent comp I can find is Shazam (43% of Shazam, so 2.53M being the very upper end).

 

If I had to say, I'd go with 2.25-2.35M based on these numbers. Some other users have it a bit higher based on their own comps, so I wouldn't be super surprised unless it somehow goes over 3M. 

[Eric is Quiet]

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Toy Story 4	1,724	2,015	3,101	3,145
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Annabelle 3	66	55	81	53
	16 days	15 days	14 days	13 days
Spider-Man FFH	907	803	1,192	1,064
	22 days	21 days	20 days	19 days

 

Toy Story

Day 18-8

126% of Aladdin (114.9M 3-Day, 146.7M 4-Day)

64% of Incredibles 2 (117.1M)

278% of Dumbo (128.1M)

250% of Dragon 3 (137.5M)

414% of Lego 2 (141.2M)

265% of Shazam! (141.9M)

 

Day 24-8

242% of Shazam! (132.3M)

84% of Incredibles 2 (154.1M)

294% of Dragon 3 (161.9M)

 

This...this is fantastic. Very rarely do upcoming releases see an increase on Thursday (for good reason). And yeah, having reviews out is the reason why it increased, but good results are good results. If this keeps up the momentum through the rest of the week, we could be in for something special.

 

Annabelle

Day 22-13

20% of Us (14.6M)

 

Yeah, I guess that's a reasonable 3-Day? Not really anything special at the moment.

 

Far From Home

Day 29-19

15% of Infinity War (37.9M)

51% of Captain Marvel (79M)

 

So this isn't as impressive as Toy Story's Thursday, but this being relatively level with Wednesday is very very good. And it's also making great gains on Captain Marvel.

[el sid]

11 hours ago, Menor said:

Good (relative to previous) pace in the last couple of hours though. If (that's a big if) it can sustain that then 3 is within reach possibly.

Indeed. It sold around 400-500 tickets/hour at ca. 4pm EST. Probably because it had almost nothing to defend from the previous day these jumps looked more impressive but at least I think ca. 30M could happen.

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-13 04:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	16.659%	10714	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2	15.984%	10280	Men in Black International
3	12.422%	7989	Aladdin (2019)
4	08.090%	5203	Rocketman
5	06.635%	4267	Dark Phoenix
6	05.635%	3624	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
7	04.977%	3201	Toy Story 4
8	04.509%	2900	Shaft (2019)
9	04.341%	2792	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
10	03.635%	2338	Late Night (2019)
11	03.460%	2225	Avengers Endgame (2019)
12	02.435%	1566	Ma (2019)
13	01.857%	1194	The Dead Dont Die
14	01.497%	963	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
15	01.438%	925	Men in Black International

[Menor the Destroyer]

Still looking at 2.5-3 imo although it's difficult to say what exactly MIB should be comped with. The preview numbers should provide some clarity. I also wonder if this terrible number is the reason for the strong numbers today for TS4, FFH

Edited June 14, 2019 by Menor

[Sunny Max]

15 minutes ago, Menor said:

Still looking at 2.5-3 imo although it's difficult to say what exactly MIB should be comped with. The preview numbers should provide some clarity. I also wonder if this terrible number is the reason for the strong numbers today for TS4, FFH

MID debacle will surely help TS4 ... what you say ???

[XXR & Friends]

Since I like supporting indie films, I picked up a ticket for TS4 for next Sunday. I’ve never seen a Pixar film in theaters before. Hope they do well!

[Geo1500]

I think TS4 will flop but Spiderman Far from home will do 1B.. This year has been unpredictable year regarding hits and misses. SLOP2 underperformed and it was rated higher by experts. Zilla 2, X-men Dark P, and Pika all either flopped or underperformed. 

 

TS4 will follow suit in my opinion and the first one to break the trend will be FFH. Why that is the question?  it has great hype going for it early on and Just feels like a Blockbuster.  Tom Holland + Zandaya is also something exciting to look forward to.

 

Another unpopular opinion. FFH will top Lion king whom I predict will underperform

Edited June 14, 2019 by Geo1500

[Menor the Destroyer]

56 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

MID debacle will surely help TS4 ... what you say ???

Only a bit. TS4 was never going to be affected by MIB even if it opened to 60 million

[Litio]

I would say $2.4-2.5m for MIBI