The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, el sid said:

The Conjuring 3, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 76 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 29 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 21 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 141 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for June 4: 299.
Up 12% since yesterday. I'm way more confident now due to the first good reviews.

AQP II, previews on Thursday, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 256 (12 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 138 (17 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 49 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (3 very new showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 56 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 235 (19 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 456 (22 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for May 27: 1209.

Up 34% since yesterday. Good. AQP II is now at 46% of the number that It 2 had on Wednesday of its release week (and I had to add Texas). It 2 had a jump of 30% in 2 days (Mon-Wed), AQP II a jump of 62% (on a lower level of course).
The Invisible Man (28.2M OW) had also on Wednesday 628 sold tickets (again now with Texas).
If I would only have more confidence in the walk-ups. But for now I'm glad that the pre-sales improved (so much).

PS: The Forbes article says: As for Quiet Place 2 being ranked above Fast & Furious 9, well, had both films opened as intended in March 2020 and May 2020, they might have ended up pretty close.
Still looks strange now. Or maybe we underestimate AQP II .

Will this be your last update before Thursday preview? 46% of IT2 means 4.8m+ preview for AQP2 but if minus out Canada, we are still getting 4.3m, that means 40m-45m 3 days is in the range.  

[el sid]

Just now, Borobudur said:

Will this be your last update before Thursday preview? 46% of IT2 means 4.8m+ preview for AQP2 but if minus out Canada, we are still getting 4.3m, that means 40m-45m 3 days is in the range.  

No, tomorrow I count again. 
Yes, under normal circumstances I would say pretty much this, 40-45M. But the Spiral OW result causes that I stay cautious (although many reasons were named why it did underperform).

[Borobudur]

5 minutes ago, el sid said:

No, tomorrow I count again. 
Yes, under normal circumstances I would say pretty much this, 40-45M. But the Spiral OW result causes that I stay cautious (although many reasons were named why it did underperform).

 

Thanks, the jump is really good and consistent. The "pent-up demand" that people have been advocating must happen somewhere right? 

[WrathOfHan]

Update

 

A Quiet Place Part II:

5:00: 15/107 (+1)

5:15: 0/67 (-)

5:30 IMAX: 3/372 (-)

5:45: 0/67 (-)

6:00: 2/77 (+2)

6:30: 2/107 (+2)

7:00 Dolby: 63/236 (-)

7:15: 0/70 (-)

7:30: 0/77 (-)

8:00: 22/107 (+2)

8:15: 0/67 (-)

8:30: 0/70 (-)

8:45: 6/67 (+6)

9:00 IMAX: 16/372 (-)

9:30: 0/107 (-)

10:00 Dolby: 2/236 (+2)

Total: 131/2,206 (+15) (13% increase)

 

Cruella:

6:00: 8/107 (-1)

6:45: 0/54 (-)

7:15: 4/107 (-)

7:45: 0/50 (-)

9:15: 10/107 (+2)

Total: 22/425 (+1)

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

PS: The Forbes article says: As for Quiet Place 2 being ranked above Fast & Furious 9, well, had both films opened as intended in March 2020 and May 2020, they might have ended up pretty close.
Still looks strange now. Or maybe we underestimate AQP II .

Actually what he said is not that crazy at all, the 1st AQP did 188m, that is arguably within same range as F8 and H&S. So I won't be surprised if both come close with their follow-ups , regardless in pre or post covid world.   

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

215

1594

13.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

149

2046

7.28%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
942	176	15243	6.18%	15	104
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	10

 

Showings removed: 2

Sold seats removed: 19

Seats removed: 857

Showings added: 18

Net Seats added: 163

 

GvK comp: 2.69M

Invisible Man comp: 9.59M

IT 2 comp: 4.42M

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

249

2421

10.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

185

2046

9.04%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1207	265	16138	7.48%	15	114
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	3
Total	11

 

Showings added: 10

Seats added: 895

 

GvK comp: 2.69M

Invisible Man comp: 8.12M

IT 2 comp: 4.56M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

39

654

5.96%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

72

1178

6.11%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
245	21	8174	3.00%	15	69
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	10

 

Showings added: 15

Seats added: 1033

 

Maleficent comp: 1.31M

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

44

1046

4.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

81

1178

6.88%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
303	58	8988	3.37%	15	84
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	3
Total	11

 

Showings added: 15

Seats added: 814

 

Maleficent comp: 2.21M

 

So like I mentioned earlier, the Maleficent comp not taking Highlands Ranch into account was hurting it a lot. But Maleficent tripled from Wednesday to Thursday, so Cruella needs to do the same to keep pace. It'll be very hard for it to do since Maleficent tripled because those 2 theaters didn't have showtimes up until the last 2 days.

Edited May 26, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[keysersoze123]

So will BO recover this weekend. Quite Place is pure theatrical and so should provide us good perspective on how much it has recovered. I remember tracking QP2 before lockdown last year and it had strong presales. But for COVID it would have opened to good numbers(probably close to the 1st movie). But we are still in recovery and capacities are still constrained. But its looking like QP2 will crush Cruella. Hopefully it does well enough for studios to go for pure theatrical releases soon. 

 

While I am not in a position to do daily updates, I will try to provide at least one off update to provide a perspective. Anyway there are so many awesome trackers who are doing a great job and so it does not matter. 

[Shawn Robbins]

6 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Actually what he said is not that crazy at all, the 1st AQP did 188m, that is arguably within same range as F8 and H&S. So I won't be surprised if both come close with their follow-ups , regardless in pre or post covid world.   

Our pre-COVID models -- which were circulated among industry sources before lockdown began in 2020 -- actually had these two films in a dead heat, with a very slight edge for domestic total gross going to AQP2 due to F9 franchise fatigue.

 

Things are incredibly different now and we'll never know what would have happened, but there is definitely credence to this theory in some capacity.

[keysersoze123]

A Quiet Place 2

Previews

MTC1 - 43682/573534 610097.00 3736 shows (421 Theatres)

MTC2 - 32304/297025 409617.34 2222 shows(306 Theatres) 

OD - 

MTC1 - 70812/971579 904008.00 5933 shows(418 Theatres)

MTC2 - 55958/668414 651386.97 4688 shows(306 Theatres)

D2

MTC1 - 43845/1136198 494258.00 6909 shows(421 Theatres)

MTC2 - 34537/649019 400511.38 4670 shows(306 Theatres)

 

Cruella

Previews

MTC1 - 12115/305121 166377.00 2262 shows(405 Theatres)

MTC2 - 11254/182055 135433.22 1544 shows(306 Theatres)

OD

MTC1 - 24552/586574 264491.00 4064 shows(405 Theatres)

MTC2 - 24480/445815 255630.42 3431 shows(306 Theatres)

D2

MTC1 - 17401/692246 155541.00 4841 shows(408 Theatres)

MTC2 - 17300/496120 175080.91 3777 shows(306 Theatres)

 

1st thing is show counts are almost as good as pre covid. Of course capacity is no where close to pre-covid and sellouts are not there. Still AQP2 is looking promising. I think if final day run up is there and its possible as sellouts are not that much, we could see double digit OD. Cruella is looking meh. Probably looking at low teens OW.  

[keysersoze123]

Another point to note is even PWP counts are way down. I see only few hundred PWP shows in MTC2 as opposed to few thousand during GVK times. Obviously with higher capacities allowed, Plexes have little reason to have lots of PWPs. I expect it to have small impact to weekend BO. 

[Joyous Legion]

On 10/16/2019 at 2:11 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mal 2 (T-1)

AMC - 18376/204900 (1080 shows)  +2438

Cin -  8320/170539 (1287 shows) + 815

 

Good increase at AMC. Good increase in show counts as well. Still needs 40-45K sales to hit 3m.

 

Maleficent 2 at same point.
 

The MTC ratio is very different, but this looks like previews about 88%? 2M if you just straight multiple (not necessarily kosher, but hey, I’m about to do it anyway). Chop off 10% for Canada, 1.8ish? Seems broadly in line with what we were seeing in Denver.   
 

Mal 2 3-day IM was 16, with Sun nearly flat from the holiday and not being a sequel,  Cruella can go 17xish imo. That would be like 30M 3-day, 36+ 4-day or something, which seems on the high side intuitively.  
 

My main conclusion is that we’ll have to see what happens in the final days and to the IM in light of covid, PA, capacity, etc but these MTC numbers look pretty fine to me?

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Borobudur]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

1st thing is show counts are almost as good as pre covid. Of course capacity is no where close to pre-covid and sellouts are not there. Still AQP2 is looking promising. I think if final day run up is there and its possible as sellouts are not that much, we could see double digit OD. Cruella is looking meh. Probably looking at low teens OW.  

Double digit OD is not that impressive since Thursday preview is now looking at about 4m at least, so we just need another 6m on Friday to get there right>

[Joyous Legion]

Thanks for dropping by Keyser, it’s manna from heaven.  
 

And there’s a decent chance this weekend will be ~ as big for openers as F9 weekend anyway, so... definitely seems worthy of the check in if you’re planning one for then.

Edited May 27, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Joyous Legion]

On 10/16/2019 at 5:15 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mal 2 OD (wednesday afternoon update)
AMC - 26208/651856 (3561 shows) +5202
Cinemark -  16218/432642 (3110 shows) +3493

 

Huge update to show count and PS also bumped up big. So PS is heavily skewed towards OD than Previews. Definitely good news for its preview to OW multi.

 

 

Oh, and here’s data for the Mal2 true fri at same point (actually these are midday for Mal, didn’t notice that before but explains part of why I got such high numbers). 
 

Anyway Cruella is actually 15% ahead! Even with mid-day for mal vs night for Cruella, we have apples to apples timing in terms of Prev:OD ratio for each. And it looks like Cruella is even more skewed toward true fri, perhaps supporting my supposition that it might have a higher IM as a non-sequel. Perhaps 1.5*18+ for the 3-day if I had to stake my life atm.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Maleficent 2 at same point.
 

The MTC ratio is very different, but this looks like previews about 88%? 2M if you just straight multiple (not necessarily kosher, but hey, I’m about to do it anyway). Chop off 10% for Canada, 1.8ish? Seems broadly in line with what we were seeing in Denver.   
 

Mal 2 3-day IM was 16, with Sun nearly flat from the holiday and not being a sequel,  Cruella can go 17xish imo. That would be like 30M 3-day, 36+ 4-day or something, which seems on the high side intuitively.  
 

My main conclusion is that we’ll have to see what happens in the final days and to the IM in light of covid, PA, capacity, etc but these MTC numbers look pretty fine to me?

 

I am not convinced walk ups will be anywhere close to pre COVID. I expect PS to play a bigger role. It has to be better than movies we tracked in past 2 months. So let us see how things go

8 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Double digit OD is not that impressive since Thursday preview is now looking at about 4m at least, so we just need another 6m on Friday to get there right>

 

Possible. Regal should have opened most of the plexes. But I dont have any new MTC ratio to extrapolate. I am thinking my number would be around 45% of overall BO. So AQP2 needs 80% bump in the final day to hit 4m previews. Possible but wont be easy. I will stay conservative for now. 

 

I think @WandaLegion or @charlie Jatinder can do better job of extrapolating the data anyway. I have not followed BO since I tracked Demon Slayer/Mortal Kombat a while back. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Thanks @keysersoze123. Missed you man. Hope you doing well.

[keysersoze123]

Thanks guys. @WandaLegion another point is I was not tracking all theatres back then. So full Mal 2 MTC1 numbers have to be higher. Plus walkups used to be 100% on final day. Dont know where we will end up. Let us hope for the best. Mal 2 days MTC1/2 ratio was around 35%. Now I think it should be 45%. DS was even higher as its BO was dominated by big cities where MTC1/2 dominated plus Regal was mostly shut at that time. 

[Joyous Legion]

Yeah it’s hard to say where walk ups and MTC ratio will go exactly, the theatrical environment is fairly changed since even 5 weeks ago when last we worked from MTC. Staying conservative probably wise.    
 

But the preview:OD finding should be modestly robust to those factors, and I do feel confident in saying it points to a strong IM. Even if previews were like 1.2M, seems like 25M+ 4-day should be on the table looking at recent kids/family targeted fare on MDW.

Edited May 27, 2021 by WandaLegion

[charlie Jatinder]

Back to data.

Spoiler

 

Est for AQP 2

 

Thu - $2.4M

Fri - $3.8M

Sat - $2.1M

Rest I suppose $1.25-1.5M till Monday.

 

Total - $9.5M total pre-sales

 

 

I suppose can expect $4.5M THU previews for AQP2. $60M 4 days weekend I can see optimistically but more realistically $55M.

 

Est for Cruella

Spoiler

 

Thu - $0.65M

Fri - $1.2M

Sat - $0.7M

Rest I suppose $0.3M till Monday.

 

Total - $2.85M

 

 

May be $1.25-1.5M THU previews for Cruella. Something like $20-22M 4 days weekend I suppose.

Edited May 27, 2021 by charlie Jatinder