The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

So, this is late, but my Cinemarks are definitely going much more in for Quiet Place 2 over Cruella...it seems obvious seeing everyone's posts on presales, but I figure this might give a likely possible box office ratio split for the weekend...

 

At Cinemark 1, they split the 2 big screens 1 each, but Cruella gets 7 shows tonight (all regular) while a Quiet Place gets 9 shows tonight (1 premium Q&A one, 8 regular).  For the weekend, A Quiet Place 2 gets 14 showings (all regular), while Cruella gets 9 showings.

 

At Cinemark 2, they split the 2 big screens 1 each, but Cruella gets 6 shows tonight (2 premium, 4 reg) and a Quiet Place 2 gets 11 shows tonight (2 premium, 9 regular).  For the weekend, A Quiet Place 2 gets a whopping 23 shows (5 premium, 18 regular), while Cruella gets 14 showings (4 premium, 10 regular).

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Never underestimate how Disney can somehow spend more money on movies than seems possible.  It could be that Covid costs of delay are wrapped into the budget or some other "unseen on screens" costs...

 

Now that I'm back home, I need to see how tonight's movies are booked!  

This was shot completely in late 2019 so it's unlikely the budget for this went up like it has for most of the movies that would have been out this summer if COVID hadn't halted their productions for an extended period of time. Actually I think this, Space Jam 2, and Suicide Squad are the only aspiring summer tentpoles that are going to meet their originally planned release dates due to filming having concluded before the world turned upside down (pretty much everything else is a 2020 title finally seeing the light of day).

[titanic2187]

Somehow Cruella can get 3892 theaters. Disney power.  

[WrathOfHan]

Looking ahead at Friday for the two new releases:

 

A Quiet Place Part II:

12:00 Dolby: 4/236

12:30: 0/107

1:00 IMAX: 4/372

2:00: 3/107

2:30: 2/70

3:00 Dolby: 24/236

3:30: 2/107

4:00 IMAX: 4/372

5:00: 0/107

5:30: 5/70

6:00 Dolby: 29/236

6:30: 9/107

6:45: 0/40

7:00 IMAX: 8/372

8:00: 14/107

8:30: 0/70

8:45: 0/40

9:00 Dolby: 53/236

9:30: 0/107

9:45: 0/40

10:00 IMAX: 11/372

Total: 172/3,511

 

Cruella:

12:15: 13/77

12:45: 0/107

1:15: 1/40

1:45: 0/77

2:15: 0/67

2:45: 1/107

3:45: 4/77

4:15: 10/107

5:15: 2/77

5:45: 0/67

6:15: 11/107

6:45: 2/40

7:15: 2/77

7:30: 22/107

8:45: 0/77

9:15: 0/67

9:45: 15/107

Total: 83/1,385

 

AQP has a bit of a PLF skew for tomorrow, but walkups will hopefully be strong.

 

Cruella's looking a fair amount better than it is tonight, but nearly all the highest selling showings have been up since tickets first went on sale a couple weeks ago. Not convinced on walkups yet.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Looking ahead at Friday for the two new releases:

 

A Quiet Place Part II:

12:00 Dolby: 4/236

12:30: 0/107

1:00 IMAX: 4/372

2:00: 3/107

2:30: 2/70

3:00 Dolby: 24/236

3:30: 2/107

4:00 IMAX: 4/372

5:00: 0/107

5:30: 5/70

6:00 Dolby: 29/236

6:30: 9/107

6:45: 0/40

7:00 IMAX: 8/372

8:00: 14/107

8:30: 0/70

8:45: 0/40

9:00 Dolby: 53/236

9:30: 0/107

9:45: 0/40

10:00 IMAX: 11/372

Total: 172/3,511

 

Cruella:

12:15: 13/77

12:45: 0/107

1:15: 1/40

1:45: 0/77

2:15: 0/67

2:45: 1/107

3:45: 4/77

4:15: 10/107

5:15: 2/77

5:45: 0/67

6:15: 11/107

6:45: 2/40

7:15: 2/77

7:30: 22/107

8:45: 0/77

9:15: 0/67

9:45: 15/107

Total: 83/1,385

 

AQP has a bit of a PLF skew for tomorrow, but walkups will hopefully be strong.

 

Cruella's looking a fair amount better than it is tonight, but nearly all the highest selling showings have been up since tickets first went on sale a couple weeks ago. Not convinced on walkups yet.

Is that common that your theater have this many empty seats? Doesn't look like a profitable venue for me or people are still haunted by 2000+ daily cases? 

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is that common that your theater have this many empty seats? Doesn't look like a profitable venue for me or people are still haunted by 2000+ daily cases? 

It's largely because AQP and Cruella have so many screens. Most large theaters seem to be giving them at least 5-6 screens a piece because the holdovers have dropped so much. Looking at two of my theaters back home, Spiral and Wrath of Man are the only non-AQP/Cruella films playing this weekend.

Edited May 27, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

Looking ahead at next week:

 

Thursday:

 

Spirit Untamed:

5:00: 0/67

7:40: 1/67

Total: 1/134

 

Friday

 

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It:

4:00 IMAX: 0/372

6:00: 3/77

7:00 IMAX: 8/372

9:00: 6/77

Total: 17/898

 

Spirit has sold nothing.

[el sid]

The Conjuring 3, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 89 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 28 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 16 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 23 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 172 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for June 4: 349.
Up 17% since yesterday. A bit better, maybe the first reviews helped or the release of AQPII or just that it's released in one week.

AQP II, previews today, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 340 (12 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 205 (21 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 86 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 19 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 89 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 269 (22 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 574 (23 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for May 27: 1582.

Again a good increase of 31% since yesterday. First of all I have to admit that I have no It 2 Thursday numbers for comparison, I don't know why .
But I have some other comps (always counted in the same 7 theaters as above):
The Invisible Man (28.2M OW) had also on Thursday 927 sold tickets, Scary Stories (20.9M) 883 and The Grudge (11.4M) 372.
A bit of a worst case scenario would be Doctor Sleep (14.1M) with 781 sold tickets on Thursday (but in this case I counted hours later than ususal, so counted at my normal time of day it would have been ca. 700 tickets). Doctor Sleep had good but not great reviews, I think the trailers were not too well received and the walk-ups were probably pretty weak, at least I guess that given the ok presales numbers. But even that comparison would mean 30M for AQP II over 3 days (unless the walk-ups are even lower than for Doctor Sleep but I can't see that with the (very) good reviews and a well received predecessor).
And, of course not the best comp, Ford vs Ferrari (31.5M) had also on Thursday 878 sold tickets.
So presales-wise no complaints here, not at all. Now all this movie needs are acceptable walk-ups.

Edited May 27, 2021 by el sid

[Inceptionzq]

The Conjuring Friday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

53

1888

2.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

53

255

20.78%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
264	N/A	8300	3.18%	11	55
$150 PWPs:	1
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	4
Total	7

 

GvK comp: 1.96M

Mortal Kombat comp: 3.57M

 

Wouldn't take too much from these comps atm. Seems like it's doing fine, especially if it's pretty backloaded like A Quiet Place.

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Looking ahead at next week:

 

Thursday:

 

Spirit Untamed:

5:00: 0/67

7:40: 1/67

Total: 1/134

 

Friday

 

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It:

4:00 IMAX: 0/372

6:00: 3/77

7:00 IMAX: 8/372

9:00: 6/77

Total: 17/898

 

Spirit has sold nothing.

Good. Screw that movie.

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/26/2021 at 2:52 PM, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

249

2421

10.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

185

2046

9.04%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1207	265	16138	7.48%	15	114
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	3
Total	11

 

Showings added: 10

Seats added: 895

 

GvK comp: 2.69M

Invisible Man comp: 8.12M

IT 2 comp: 4.56M

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

386

2421

15.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

338

2046

16.52%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 26 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2205	998	17477	12.62%	15	123
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	3
Total	11

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 1339

 

Invisible Man comp: 4.58M

Doctor Sleep comp: 4.51M

IT 2 comp: 5.22M

 

Such a great last day. I took out the GvK comp because the last day of counting was a different situation than A Quiet Place, plus I think these comps are enough to go off of. Invisible Man comp came back to earth, but that's good because it is in general agreement with the other ones. I'm surprised that the IT 2 comp is quite a bit ahead of the other comps, but these do indict that we're getting a 4M-5M Thursday. I'll go with 4.3M in account of no Canada and capacity restrictions.

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/26/2021 at 3:12 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

44

1046

4.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

81

1178

6.88%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
303	58	8988	3.37%	15	84
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	3
Total	11

 

Showings added: 15

Seats added: 814

 

Maleficent comp: 2.21M

 

So like I mentioned earlier, the Maleficent comp not taking Highlands Ranch into account was hurting it a lot. But Maleficent tripled from Wednesday to Thursday, so Cruella needs to do the same to keep pace. It'll be very hard for it to do since Maleficent tripled because those 2 theaters didn't have showtimes up until the last 2 days.

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

76

1090

6.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

146

1178

12.39%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 27 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
678	375	9099	7.45%	15	86
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	3
Total	11

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 111

 

Maleficent comp: 1.67M

 

So as I expected, it didn't triple from yesterday. But it did do really well, it more than doubled. All things considered, it looks fine against Maleficent. I'll go with 1.45M.

[Porthos]

On 5/26/2021 at 10:49 PM, Porthos said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	22	125	2643	5036	2393	47.52%

 

Total Net Sellouts Removed Today	4*
Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	687*
Total Seats Sold Today	523

*NOTE: One theater expanded to a 50% cap in seating, resulting in the removal of seven sellouts, but the addition of 306 seats.

SECOND NOTE:  The Regal theater which yanked its Thr (and OW) screenings last week, re-added them tonight, with all previously sold seats still marked as sold.  That bumped up "today's" seat sold total by 25 seats.

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	43.92		1414	5449		90/214	2194/7643	71.29%		4.22m

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

8

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

 

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT FINAL REPORT [4:15pm - 4:55pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	37	146	2140	5476	3336	60.92%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	15
Total Showings Added Today	21
Total Seats Added Today	440
Total Seats Sold Today	943

 

T-0 Comp

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	47.09		1636	7085		149/236	1036/8121	87.24%		4.52m

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

9

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

18 hours ago, Porthos said:

AQP II didn't quite match the also-nutso pace of It 2, so that comp is coming down.  At T-1, It 2 locally sold 1,001 tickets while on an adjusted basis, AQP II sold 486.  Which gives a comp of 2291/3820 (59.97%) which in turn translates to  6.30m.  Once again, taking off 10% or so for lack of Canada now gives a comp of 5.67m, which is down quite a bit from yesterday, but probably tracking more in the correct direction.

 

It 2  on its final day sold 1839 tickets at stop of tracking.  AQP II on an adjusted basis sold  881 tickets in approximately the same time frame.  The final comp comes in at 3172/5659 [56.05%] which = 5.89m.  Lop off 10% and that gives a comp of 5.3m, which isn't too far away from the GvK comp 4.5m.

 

Let's split the difference and call for 5m in previews, +/- .3m.

 

Sacto is very likely over-performing.  But what if it isn't? 

[keysersoze123]

Ok So walkups are much better than what I expected. Not sure if its pre pandemic levels but definitely not bad at all. 

 

A Quiet Place 2 Previews

MTC1 -92997/596194 1204900.00 4013 shows

MTC2 - 69900/342570 862471.24 2706 shows

 

Cruella Previews

MTC1  - 27480/319768 344929.00 2418 shows

MTC2 -  24897/197707 291452.58 1716 shows

 

So AQP2 around 3x Cruella or tad more than that. There are no crazy late shows though I see some 2d shows till 11PM at Empire 25 and other big plexes at NYC. I think another 10% or so growth is possible for AQP2. Not sure if Cruella is going to do much at late hours. I would guess AQP previews around 5.5 million and Cruella around 1.8m. 

 

OD BO

AQP

MTC1 - 102690/997940 1262282.00 6110 shows

MTC2 - 77832/681030 896771.23 4775 shows

 

Cruella

MTC1 - 36323/592931 373364.00 4125 shows

MTC2 - 34444/449557 354858.54 3452 shows

 

Not bad growth for both. Again ratio is AQP2 ~ 3x Cruella. I have not looked at saturday BO today but I expect ratio to be similar there as well. I think families would rather pay $30 rather than go to theatres or wait for normal Disney+ release.  Ignore my projections yesterday as I was thinking like it was a normal 3 day weekend. I think AQP2 is looking at 60m over 4 day weekend and Cruella around 25m. 

[Borobudur]

@keysersoze123 Just a reminder. POTC5 did 5.5m in Thursday preview and went on grossing 63m 3 days and 78.5m 4 days over MW in 2017. 

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

@keysersoze123 Just a reminder. POTC5 did 5.5m in Thursday preview and went on grossing 63m 3 days and 78.5m 4 days over MW in 2017. 

Cannot compare with Pre-COVID BO for now. Walk ups are not that close. I dont think weekend PS is that strong for IM to go that high. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Thanks @keysersoze123

 

Yes I am also seeing it at $5.5-5.75M from these #s but I wonder if PWPs can take it to $6M. 

 

Midnights had PSm of 2.4x. That's more or less normal. Back in pre COVID PSm for weekend used to be 3-4x but recently had gone just 2x for MK. Wonder if AQP2 can get 2.75-3x, that will be 15-16M Friday. I guess 20M OD, 55ish FSS and 70M 4 days. Going safe lets cut 10% of those. Still great.

[keysersoze123]

22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thanks @keysersoze123

 

Yes I am also seeing it at $5.5-5.75M from these #s but I wonder if PWPs can take it to $6M. 

 

Midnights had PSm of 2.4x. That's more or less normal. Back in pre COVID PSm for weekend used to be 3-4x but recently had gone just 2x for MK. Wonder if AQP2 can get 2.75-3x, that will be 15-16M Friday. I guess 20M OD, 55ish FSS and 70M 4 days. Going safe lets cut 10% of those. Still great.

Last I checked less than 550 PWP between 2 MTC. That to me is not enough to make any dent to BO. I expect majority to be for AQP but not all.

 

15m looks tough. Would need way stronger walk ups than what I saw today. Probably 12-13m true friday and small increase on saturday and then small drop on sunday/slightly bigger drop on Monday.  

[Mango]

26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thanks @keysersoze123

 

Yes I am also seeing it at $5.5-5.75M from these #s but I wonder if PWPs can take it to $6M. 

 

Midnights had PSm of 2.4x. That's more or less normal. Back in pre COVID PSm for weekend used to be 3-4x but recently had gone just 2x for MK. Wonder if AQP2 can get 2.75-3x, that will be 15-16M Friday. I guess 20M OD, 55ish FSS and 70M 4 days. Going safe lets cut 10% of those. Still great.

 

If this gets anywhere close to $70M 4-day then we're back in business theater-wise and any upcoming day-and-date streaming or streaming only is a deliberate decision.

 

Not sure if I can see it happening, but here's hoping.