The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

10 minutes ago, Eric Osborn said:

I'VE BEEN COUNTING TICKETS FOR 5 HOURS

Do you count through the chain sites or Fandango? If it’s the chain sites, I’ve got some Inspect Element cheats that will make your life easier

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Do you count through the chain sites or Fandango? If it’s the chain sites, I’ve got some Inspect Element cheats that will make your life easier

Can you share me some? I need it to count tickets of MR &BB2

[Eric is Quiet]

10 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Do you count through the chain sites or Fandango? If it’s the chain sites, I’ve got some Inspect Element cheats that will make your life easier

Chain sites. DM me the deets

[ZackM]

16 hours ago, ZackM said:

Yesterday's Friday numbers were clearly off for some reason, so I'm quoting data from 2 days ago instead.

 

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 8,630

Sold - 579,915

Total - 1,456,989

ATP - $14.80

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 8,820

Sold - 640,322

Total - 1,483,561

ATP - $14.67

[Shanks]

wrong thread...

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Shanks

[Porthos]

On 12/14/2021 at 11:29 PM, Porthos said:

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	1	368	18946	42052	23106	54.95%

 

Total Showings Added Today	28
Total Seats Added Today	630
Total Seats Sold Today	1659

 

As of T-2, No Way Home has sold...

2.5126x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [34.73m]*

3.9518x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                  [34.78m]

2.9961x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [34.75m]

3.6052x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                      [34.25m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp 

***100% use at own risk*** — see cautionary note below

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	92.95		1182	22204		41/302	5738/27942	79.46%		55.77m
TROS	125.21		668	17462		11/251	9470/26932	64.84%		50.09m
NWH (EG adj)	---		1427	20639		1/368	14939/35578	58.01%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		1562	21865		1/368	15866/37731	57.95%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       6594/13144 [50.17% sold] [+565 tickets]

Matinee:    2403/5164  [46.53% sold | 10.40% of all tickets sold]

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	0	373	16985	42052	25067	59.61%

 

Total Sellouts Converted to Capped	1
Total Showings Capped Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	n/a*
Total Seats Sold Today	1961

NOTE:  All showings added today were at non-reserved seating theaters.

 

T-1 2021 Comps (aka "World One")

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	360.99		1114	6944		0/258	25357/32301	21.50%		49.90m
SC	600.84		893	4172		0/188	20813/24985	16.70%		52.87m
V2	488.92		1372	5127		0/244	28009/33136	15.47%		56.71m
ET	536.53		739	4672		0/136	13796/18468	25.30%		50.97m

* BW comp has been adjusted for the return of Ontario theaters.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp/Pre-2020 Comps (aka "World Two")  — see cautionary note below

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	93.62		1182	22204		41/302	5738/27942	79.46%		56.17m
TROS	128.89		668	17462		11/251	9470/26932	64.84%		51.55m
NWH (EG adj)	---		1611	22250		0/373	13328/35578	62.54%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		1730	23595		0/373	14136/37731	62.53%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       7208/13144 [54.84% sold] [+614 tickets]

Matinee:    2901/5436  [53.37% sold | 11.57% of all tickets sold]

 

=================

 

It's time.  I added the 2021 comps even though they're still waaaaaaay out of whack.  One can see that even with the great day today, NWH didn't outsell, say, SC by 6x.  So those comps are gonna go way down tomorrow.

 

Only other thing of note is that lone sellout I was highly suspicious of, briefly turned available for sale today, and I saw that it still had something like 30 tickets available for purchase.  Meanwhile another showing at that same theater was marked as "sold out" even though I knew it had around 35+ tickets left earlier today.  Then, when I did my count tonight, both were marked as sold out.  So I went ahead and decided it was capping at around 145 seats sold out of 175 available. If it was something like 10 to 15 seats, I wouldn't have cared.  But 30 seats starts to add up in a hurry, so the sellout was shifted to cap.

 

Not much else to say.  Now we wait to see what tomorrow brings.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

/\

 |

 | Post edited and updated with actual numbers.

[Porthos]

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	0	373	16985	42052	25067	59.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1961

 

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Only other thing of note is that lone sellout I was highly suspicious of, briefly turned available for sale today, and I saw that it still had something like 30 tickets available for purchase.  Meanwhile another showing at that same theater was marked as "sold out" even though I knew it had around 35+ tickets left earlier today.  Then, when I did my count tonight, both were marked as sold out.  So I went ahead and decided it was capping at around 145 seats sold out of 175 available. If it was something like 10 to 15 seats, I wouldn't have cared.  But 30 seats starts to add up in a hurry, so the sellout was shifted to cap.

 

And, yes, because of this theater marking a show as sold out when it really wasn't, Sacto JUST missed a 2k seat sold day.  If I hadn't caught the discrepancy, I would have marked it as a 2021 seats sold day.

 

But don't blame me, blame [THEATER REDACTED] for marking a show sold out when it wasn't. 👍

 

(again, if it was far closer, I would have shrugged my shoulders and moved on with my count.  But 30 seats really is past my tolerance threshold)

[Joyous Legion]

Endgame had only 5900 seats left at the same point, sold half that many by final bell.  
 

TROS 9100 seats left, sold… uhhh… 1/8 of them.   
 

IW had 3600 seats left, sold like 43%.   
 

NWH isn’t going to sell anything close to the % of remaining capacity that the other marvel’s did, because of the extra capacity from the 3pm. But quite noteworthy imo that it has waaaaaaay more space available for people to walk up to tomorrow, and a larger window of time for them to do it in.

[charlie Jatinder]

World 1 Comp in Sacramento will end around $41-43M I think.

 

Make sense since all of them are smaller films, which index relatively bigger in bigger cities. NWH will have better spread out business.

 

 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Endgame had only 5900 seats left at the same point, sold half that many by final bell.  
 

TROS 9100 seats left, sold… uhhh… 1/8 of them.   
 

IW had 3600 seats left, sold like 43%.   
 

NWH isn’t going to sell anything close to the % of remaining capacity that the other marvel’s did, because of the extra capacity from the 3pm. But quite noteworthy imo that it has waaaaaaay more space available for people to walk up to tomorrow, and a larger window of time for them to do it in.

Well, yes and no.  I am seeing more folks willing to buy marginal seats, but the resistance is still real.

 

OTOH, with around 350 reserved seating showings (away from spreadsheet at the mo, so I can’t get an exact number), only need to sell an average of six seats sold per showing to get 2.1k seats in a given period.

 

That’s kinda what happened today.  Were some surges here and there as folks took advantage of emptier showtimes, as well as nothing sold/slight claw backs.  But it was mostly just incremental sales up and down the region.

 

The other wildcard is when I take my sample.  I’ve resigned myself to very probably taking it from 3:00-4:15 instead of 3:45-4:30.  And even that might be a little dicey as I have to jump around to catch shows before I can no longer get a seat count. Might actually take me from 2:55-4:30, which will… annoy me (yes, I do use a shortcut over at Fandango).  How that changes things, I really have no idea.  Not catching some of the walk ups I might get at the 5pm to 6pm shows.  On the other hand, with the sheer number of pre-5pm shows, might not matter.

 

Lots of moving parts, in other words, as you are very well aware.

[Krissykins]

11 hours ago, Eric Osborn said:

Studios, I just want a break

 

Ghostface doesn’t give anyone a break 🔪

[CJohn]

12 hours ago, Eric Osborn said:

Studios, I just want a break

 

Omicron is coming to give everyone a break.

 

[BillionDollarChampioner10]

7.067 more hours left til the start of the movie in US theaters.

[cdsacken]

Timing of this was perfect! Omicron is taking so damn long to surge here. Which is wonderful, just wait till late January, thank you virus.

 

I'm gonna go 250 OW and monstrous next 7 days. Hoping for 600 by Jan 1 if not more.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-1	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	186	25,042	8,626	846	34.45%
		Phoenix	7	170	21,656	11,446	791	52.85%
		Raleigh	8	119	12,579	7,821	652	62.18%
	Spider-Man Total		22	475	59,277	27,893	2,289	47.06%

 

It's one thing to expect this rate to continue; it's another to actually see it happen.  Another 42 shows have been added (on top of the 15 added previous day).  Despite that, the % of seats sold keeps increasing and is nearly at 50%. 

 

T-1 increase % comps

 

Spider - 8.94%

BW - 14.39%

SC - 16.9%

Eternals - 13.26%

 

Quick check-in on T-1 sales comps...

 

BW  - 5.97x (78.77m)

SC -  11.39x (100.23m)

Eternals - 8.16x (77.55m)

 

Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 3.79x (50.01m)

SC -  6.8x (59.88m)

Eternals - 5.19x (49.33m)

 

Average projected forecast =

  Reveal hidden contents

67.66m

 

Just looking at the chart below makes my head spin.  Even if flattens over the last two updates the comps would point to 60m previews.  

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $363,983(13.05 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

ATP continues to fall, so that will definitely lower the gross here.  If I factor in ATP difference in each of the forecasts, the projections moves to...

 

  Reveal hidden contents

66.02m

 

Splits

 

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	24,218	86.88%	$324,778.39	13.41
	Y	3,657	13.12%	$38,980.25	10.66

 

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	8,743	31.37%	$141,461.80	16.18
	Standard	19,132	68.63%	$222,296.84	11.62

 

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	15,846	56.85%	$199,446.30	12.59
	Cinemark	6,791	24.36%	$97,039.07	14.29
	CMX	32	0.11%	$479.68	14.99
	Regal	4,439	15.92%	$58,682.26	13.22
	RoadHouse	527	1.89%	$5,531.33	10.50
	Sun-Ray	240	0.86%	$2,580.00	10.75

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-0	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	189	25,181	9,834	1,208	39.05%
		Phoenix	7	174	21,989	12,532	1,086	56.99%
		Raleigh	8	120	12,627	8,676	855	68.71%
	Spider-Man Total		22	483	59,797	31,042	3,149	51.91%

 

Hit pretty much right on expected number based on forecast from comp increases.  If I'm able to run a T-1 hour update I'd expect sales to finish around 35,700.   I'm guessing that all show times have been posted at this time, but I didn't really expect to see any this morning either.  With 51.9% of seats filled, there is a ton of room for walkups today.

 

T-0 increase % comps

 

Spider - 11.29%

BW - 23.9%

SC - 22.99%

Eternals - 21.33%

 

Quick check-in on T-0 sales comps...

 

BW  - 5.36x (70.76m)

SC -  10.31x (90.69m)

Eternals - 7.49x (71.13m)

 

Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 4.22x (55.66m)

SC -  7.57x (66.64m)

Eternals - 5.78x (54.9m)

 

Average projected forecast = 

Spoiler

66.2m

 

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $402,228 (12.96 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	26,850	86.55%	$357,856.14	13.33
	Y	4,174	13.45%	$44,147.99	10.58

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	9,301	29.98%	$150,534.88	16.18
	Standard	21,723	70.02%	$251,469.25	11.58

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	17,483	56.35%	$217,701.37	12.45
	Cinemark	7,448	24.01%	$106,199.16	14.26
	CMX	32	0.10%	$479.68	14.99
	Regal	5,268	16.98%	$69,233.09	13.14
	RoadHouse	535	1.72%	$5,617.33	10.50
	Sun-Ray	258	0.83%	$2,773.50	10.75

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-7	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	36	6,111	474	48	7.76%
		Phoenix	7	41	4,690	497	54	10.60%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,516	604	35	17.18%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		20	106	14,317	1,575	137	11.00%

 

20 new shows added yesterday, including the RoadHouse theater that always goes up a week before release. 

 

T-7 Matrix comps

 

TSS - 3.98x (16.31m)

NTTD - 2.3x (11.94m)

Dune - 1.92x (9.77m)

SC - 1.35x (11.86m)

 

Avg - 12.47m OD

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-6	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	35	5,918	493	19	8.33%
		Phoenix	7	41	4,690	549	52	11.71%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,516	646	42	18.37%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		20	105	14,124	1,688	113	11.95%

 

T-6 Matrix comps

 

TSS - 3.97x (16.28m)

SC - 1.3x (11.44m)

 

Avg - 13.86m OD (missing two comps on T-6)

[Joyous Legion]

The only thing stopping a 4K t-1 is the fact that it’ll be 3 hours early 🤣

[katnisscinnaplex]

Just now, Product Driven Legion said:

The only thing stopping a 4K t-1 is the fact that it’ll be 3 hours early 🤣

 

Well, I'm considering what others have suggested: pulling the pre-5pm shows at 2pm and starting the others at 4pm.  This is completely dependent on my work schedule though.  There is a chance I can't look at anything until after 5 this afternoon.

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Well, I'm considering what others have suggested: pulling the pre-5pm shows at 2pm and starting the others at 4pm.  This is completely dependent on my work schedule though.  There is a chance I can't look at anything until after 5 this afternoon.

5 would be t-1 for Eternals and SC anyway