The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

@GoblinXXR do you have presale for NWH Monday? 

 

For my comp, it's on page 2487 near the bottom. 

[ZackM]

Monday presales for Alpha

 

Monday - SM:NWH

Theaters - 433

Showings - 7,409

Sold - 341,909

Total - 1,237,420

ATP - $13.96

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Monday presales for Alpha

 

Monday - SM:NWH

Theaters - 433

Showings - 7,409

Sold - 341,909

Total - 1,237,420

ATP - $13.96

 

21 hours ago, ZackM said:

Final Sunday Presales for Alpha

 

Sunday - SM:NWH

Theaters - 432

Showings - 8,992

Sold - 677,178

Total - 1,471,216

ATP - $13.57

$4.77M vs $9.19M, like 48% down. This is imperfect because alpha ratio changes on mon and I forget how much, but if sun 65 and PSm+10% ->37, +20% 40.5. More realistically alpha ratio should go up so gross lower than that. Record seems tough.  
 

There’s also a 3 hour diff though (unless yday was just posted 3 hours after taken), I guess 09:00-12 hours on East could make a noticeable diff. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Weird Alegion

[Legion Again]

Hmm. In SK, quite a significant difference between 12:00 and 9:00 sales. For west cost it’s like 6 vs 9 doesn’t matter, but East is a majority of gross iirc.

 

Overall I’ll try 36-40.

 

Edit: Zack has clarified same overnight run. I’ll try 34-38.

Edited December 20, 2021 by Weird Alegion

[el sid]

14 hours ago, european1992 said:

 

Ok, this actually looks promising. Thanks. Do you have any IT comparisons maybe?

 

I counted It 2 only in its last week: On Monday of its release week it had in the same 7 theaters as Scream 2.008 sold tickets for its previews on Thurday. No big help at the moment as you can see .

Today Scream had 341 (for Thursday) and 124 (for Friday) sold tickets. The jumps became smaller (expected) and as mentioned horror films normally have the biggest jumps in their last week, e.g. Old jumped from 150 sold tickets on Monday of its release week to 500 sold tickets on Thursday.
But I will keep an eye on it.

Edited December 20, 2021 by el sid

[ZackM]

12 minutes ago, Weird Alegion said:

 

$4.77M vs $9.19M, like 48% down. This is imperfect because alpha ratio changes on mon and I forget how much, but if sun 65 and PSm+10% ->37, +20% 40.5. More realistically alpha ratio should go up so gross lower than that. Record seems tough.  
 

There’s also a 3 hour diff though (unless yday was just posted 3 hours after taken), I guess 09:00-12 hours on East could make a noticeable diff. 

They were run at the same time overnight.  Difference in posting time is just a byproduct of how late I sleep on the weekend vs weekdays.

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, Weird Alegion said:

Hmm. In SK, quite a significant difference between 12:00 and 9:00 sales. For west cost it’s like 6 vs 9 doesn’t matter, but East is a majority of gross iirc.

 

Overall I’ll try 36-40.

 

Edit: Zack has clarified same overnight run. I’ll try 34-38.

 

I'm gonna take my comp +8%, so $37.02M 

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by GoblinXXR

[Danhjpn]

14 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

I'm gonna take my comp +8%, so $37.02M 

 

TFA only dropped 34% on 1st Mon.... how? 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Danhjpn said:

TFA only dropped 34% on 1st Mon.... how? 

 

It just did. Closer to the holidays helped a bit. NWH could still match that or get close, we just don't know yet. 

[TomCruiseTop]

How much do we think this thing could make total? I see it having good legs, is 2 billies on the table?

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

How much do we think this thing could make total? I see it having good legs, is 2 billies on the table?

 

Would be pretty difficult without China but not impossible. I think $1.65-1.75B minus China is the most likely scenario. 

[keysersoze123]

50 minutes ago, Weird Alegion said:

 

$4.77M vs $9.19M, like 48% down. This is imperfect because alpha ratio changes on mon and I forget how much, but if sun 65 and PSm+10% ->37, +20% 40.5. More realistically alpha ratio should go up so gross lower than that. Record seems tough.  
 

There’s also a 3 hour diff though (unless yday was just posted 3 hours after taken), I guess 09:00-12 hours on East could make a noticeable diff. 

I think alpha market share will increase a bit during weekdays. Smaller theaters play few shows during weekdays day time. There used to be times some of them just played over the weekend but for Spidey I am expecting all theaters to play through the week. 

 

But walkups will get better and better as go further into the run. Let us hope @ZackM can provide an update this evening. 

[TomCruiseTop]

11 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

Would be pretty difficult without China but not impossible. I think $1.65-1.75B minus China is the most likely scenario. 

Is well over a billie guaranteed at this stage? (Baring any lockdown).

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Is well over a billie guaranteed at this stage? (Baring any lockdown).

 

Definitely. If there are no lockdowns, I'd be shocked if it finished under $1.5B 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/16/2021 at 8:54 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-6	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	35	5,918	493	19	8.33%
		Phoenix	7	41	4,690	549	52	11.71%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,516	646	42	18.37%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		20	105	14,124	1,688	113	11.95%

 

T-6 Matrix comps

 

TSS - 3.97x (16.28m)

SC - 1.3x (11.44m)

 

Avg - 13.86m OD (missing two comps on T-6)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales*	% Sold
T-2	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	46	8,066	828	335	10.27%
		Phoenix	7	41	4,690	1,020	471	21.75%
		Raleigh	8	36	4,378	942	296	21.52%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		21	123	17,134	2,790	1,102	16.28%

 

*New sales since Thurs morning*

 

T-2 comps

TSS - 3.822 (15.67m)

Dune - 1.85x (9.44m)

SC - 1.332x (11.72m)

 

Average - 12.28m OD

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think alpha market share will increase a bit during weekdays. Smaller theaters play few shows during weekdays day time. There used to be times some of them just played over the weekend but for Spidey I am expecting all theaters to play through the week. 

 

But walkups will get better and better as go further into the run. Let us hope @ZackM can provide an update this evening. 

I've got presale and final numbers for each day thus far.  I'll keep that going this week so that we have a baseline moving forward.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Sing 2 (11/27)	Jacksonville	3	3	295	225	17	76.27%
		Phoenix	5	6	805	473	161	58.76%
		Raleigh	5	6	757	498	64	65.79%
	Sing 2 (11/27) Total		13	15	1,857	1,196	242	64.40%
T-1	King's Man (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	20	1,706	73	73	4.28%
		Phoenix	7	21	2,749	141	141	5.13%
		Raleigh	8	17	1,918	122	122	6.36%
	King's Man (Tue) Total		21	58	6,373	336	336	5.27%
T-2	Sing 2 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	47	6,890	785	785	11.39%
		Phoenix	7	51	6,769	651	651	9.62%
		Raleigh	7	46	5,684	929	929	16.34%
	Sing 2 (Wed) Total		20	144	19,343	2,365	2,365	12.23%

 

I left Sing's early access numbers in since these will probably be rolled into OD.  For the purposes of my comps, I'm excluding them though.

 

Sing 2 T-2 comps

Encanto - 9.773x (14.66m)

Paw Patrol - 4.02x (18.19m)

Jungle Cruise - 7.21x (19.47m)

 

Average - 17.44m

 

King's Man T-1 comps

Resident Evil - 1.826x (1.708m)

Last Duel - 3.953x (1.384m)

TSS - .351x (1.438m)

 

Average - 1.51m

[filmlover]

A Journal for Jordan has sold only 10 seats for all day Christmas Day at the big multiplex in the area (meanwhile, Spider-Man has sold 300+ seats while Sing, Matrix, West Side Story have all sold 100+ seats along with 75 for American Underdog, 60 for Licorice Pizza, and 50 for The King's Man). Would anyone be shocked if this doesn't even hit $1M over its 2-day opening? I wouldn't.

[Legion Again]

Wrong thread

Edited December 20, 2021 by Weird Alegion

[efialtes76]

King's Man is DOA.

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by efialtes76