The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales*	% Sold
T-2	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	46	8,066	828	335	10.27%
		Phoenix	7	41	4,690	1,020	471	21.75%
		Raleigh	8	36	4,378	942	296	21.52%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		21	123	17,134	2,790	1,102	16.28%

 

*New sales since Thurs morning*

 

T-2 comps

TSS - 3.822 (15.67m)

Dune - 1.85x (9.44m)

SC - 1.332x (11.72m)

 

Average - 12.28m OD

 

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Sing 2 (11/27)	Jacksonville	3	3	295	225	17	76.27%
		Phoenix	5	6	805	473	161	58.76%
		Raleigh	5	6	757	498	64	65.79%
	Sing 2 (11/27) Total		13	15	1,857	1,196	242	64.40%
T-1	King's Man (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	20	1,706	73	73	4.28%
		Phoenix	7	21	2,749	141	141	5.13%
		Raleigh	8	17	1,918	122	122	6.36%
	King's Man (Tue) Total		21	58	6,373	336	336	5.27%
T-2	Sing 2 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	47	6,890	785	785	11.39%
		Phoenix	7	51	6,769	651	651	9.62%
		Raleigh	7	46	5,684	929	929	16.34%
	Sing 2 (Wed) Total		20	144	19,343	2,365	2,365	12.23%

 

I left Sing's early access numbers in since these will probably be rolled into OD.  For the purposes of my comps, I'm excluding them though.

 

Sing 2 T-2 comps

Encanto - 9.773x (14.66m)

Paw Patrol - 4.02x (18.19m)

Jungle Cruise - 7.21x (19.47m)

 

Average - 17.44m

 

King's Man T-1 comps

Resident Evil - 1.826x (1.708m)

Last Duel - 3.953x (1.384m)

TSS - .351x (1.438m)

 

Average - 1.51m

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	King's Man (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	23	1,831	90	17	4.92%
		Phoenix	7	21	2,749	180	39	6.55%
		Raleigh	8	17	1,918	162	40	8.45%
	King's Man (Tue) Total		21	61	6,498	432	96	6.65%
	Sing 2 (11/27)	Jacksonville	3	3	295	225	17	76.27%
		Phoenix	5	6	805	473	161	58.76%
		Raleigh	5	6	757	498	64	65.79%
	Sing 2 (11/27) Total		13	15	1,857	1,196	242	64.40%
T-1	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	46	8,066	1,042	214	12.92%
		Phoenix	7	41	4,690	1,156	136	24.65%
		Raleigh	8	41	4,680	1,057	115	22.59%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		21	128	17,436	3,255	465	18.67%
	Sing 2 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	47	6,890	909	124	13.19%
		Phoenix	7	51	6,769	712	61	10.52%
		Raleigh	7	53	6,122	1,170	241	19.11%
	Sing 2 (Wed) Total		20	151	19,781	2,791	426	14.11%

 

Combining these into one post.  I'll try to get a final King's Man update an hour before shows if I have time.

 

King's Man T-0 comps

Resident Evil - 1.42x (1.33m)

Last Duel - 3.273x (1.15m)

TSS - .341x (1.4m)

 

Avg - 1.29m

 

Sing 2 T-1 comps (excluding EA sales)

Encanto - 9x (13.5m)

Paw Patrol - 3.6x (16.27m)

Jungle Cruise - 6.04x (16.31m)

 

Avg - 15.36m

 

Matrix T-1 comps

TSS - 3.4x (13.93m)

Dune - 1.85x (9.42m)

Shang-Chi - 1.33x (11.7m)

Eternals - .953x (9.05m)

 

Avg - 11.02m

[Legion Again]

*whistles casually*

 

Top 5 overall weekends without an opener at #1:
Dec 25 2015 (led by TFA 2nd weekend, 296M)
Dec25 2009 (led by Avatar 2nd weekend, 270M)
Jun 19 2015 (led by JW 2nd weekend, 248M)
Jan 1 2010 (led by Avatar 3rd weekend, 220M)
Jan 1 2016 (led by TFA 3rd weekend, 219M)

[ZackM]

9 hours ago, ZackM said:

SM:NWH is looking at ~40% drop at Alpha for Monday.

Drop ended up being 39%

[ZackM]

On 12/20/2021 at 9:01 AM, ZackM said:

Monday presales for Alpha

 

Monday - SM:NWH

Theaters - 433

Showings - 7,409

Sold - 341,909

Total - 1,237,420

ATP - $13.96

Tuesday - SM:NWH

Theaters - 433

Showings - 6,958

Sold - 358,216

Total - 1,163,073

ATP - $13.94

[XXR vs XXR]

13 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Tuesday - SM:NWH

Theaters - 433

Showings - 6,958

Sold - 358,216

Total - 1,163,073

ATP - $13.94

I know it won’t happen because of the smaller chains but imagine if we went up 4% today…

 

🔥🔥🔥🔥

[Legion Again]

Well, admits should go up way more than that. Tuesdays are weird.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Weird Alegion

[titanic2187]

Speaking to the CFO of one of the cinema chain this morning. He mentioned one of the  trend or changes since Covid is decrease in bulk ticket purchase, i.e. Purchase of more than 4 tickets and above, and the number of transaction that hit the maximum ticket allowed (10 tickets per transaction). Meanwhile, the single ticket buying actually increase by at least 3 times more than pre-pandemic time. This may not prove anything as maybe people tend to purchase their own ticket separately but still can't stop me from thinking if Covid-19 has damaged some of the interpersonal bond within society and therefore leading to decline in big bulky cinemagoing with friends. 

 

Just want to check if @Porthos @Inceptionzq have seen similar trend in your tracking whereby solo cinemagoing has become more often post-pandemic. 

[filmlover]

Theaters are starting to finalize schedules for Christmas Day looking around and it looks like every pre-December 17 release that isn't West Side Story or Encanto (which plenty of theaters are keeping for most of the day with other movies taking over its screen for the last show) is pretty much a goner. The latter still has a shot at $100M now despite D+ since it's going to be around virtually everywhere until first weekend of January at a minimum.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Weird Alegion said:

Well, admits should go up way more than that. Tuesdays are weird.

Identical ATP. Does Alpha not do Tuesday discounts?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Identical ATP. Does Alpha not do Tuesday discounts?

I never got valid ticket rates for discount tuesdays. I would just ignore the ATP for tuesday. of course close to holidays some of the plexes may not do discounts. But I am not sure if there was such notification from alpha this week. 

[Inceptionzq]

33 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Just want to check if @Porthos @Inceptionzq have seen similar trend in your tracking whereby solo cinemagoing has become more often post-pandemic.

I do feel like I have noticed more solo seats sold for movies like No Time to Die, Dune, and Matrix. Can’t say I’ve noticed for other movies though

[Inceptionzq]

21 minutes ago, Menor said:

Identical ATP. Does Alpha not do Tuesday discounts?

You have to have an AMC membership to get the discount Tuesdays

[ZackM]

21 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

You have to have an AMC membership to get the discount Tuesdays

Yep.  So ATP should basically be ignored for Tuesday's until we have enough data to establish some standard adjustment.

[keysersoze123]

Sing 2

MTC1 OD - 51438/390463 553901.68 2569 shows. 

 

This should have good walkups with schools being off. Definitely think its hitting double digits tomorrow. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Warner Bros., which is not holding previews for Matrix Resurrections tonight, is expecting $40M over Wednesday through Sunday for the Lana Wachowski directed R-rated sequel/reboot, which she also co-wrote and produced. Tracking has it much higher in the $60M, possibly $70M range over Wednesday to Monday.

 

Sing 2 is hoping to raise the bar on the openings for family movies at 3,900 theaters with a $40M-$50M start over 6 days. 

 

[KINGS MAN] is hoping for $15M over 5-days, $19M over 6 days but industry projections are higher at $20M over six at 3,100 theaters

 

Given their Saturday-Sunday play, Sony’s A Journal for Jordan and Lionsgate/Kingdom Story Company’s American Underdog are both expected to land in the single digit range for both that 2 day and Saturday through Monday span.

[el sid]

Matrix 4, counted today at 11am EST for Wednesday, Dec 22:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 377 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 426 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 124 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 64 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 139 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.111 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 867 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.108 (+ 323 seats).

Jumped 12% since yesterday.

Comps: TSS (8.0M true Friday) had on Thursday for Friday (= also 1 day to go) 1.560 sold tickets = x1.99, that comp would mean 15.9M OD.

And Dune (12.4M true Friday) had on Thursday for Friday 3.520 sold tickets = 88.5% which is exactly the same percentage as two days ago but a bit better than yesterday. Would be 11M OD.
Matrix 4 indeed improved a bit in the Dune comp so judging from my numbers I would also say that it will reach at least double digits (more is also possible but the limited number of screens - and also very late showtimes - could hurt it of course).

 

The presales for A Journal for Jordan and American Underdog improved a little bit too with now 33 sold tickets in 7 theaters and 45 sold tickets in 4 theaters.

Edited December 21, 2021 by el sid

[Ronin46]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Warner Bros., which is not holding previews for Matrix Resurrections tonight, is expecting $40M over Wednesday through Sunday for the Lana Wachowski directed R-rated sequel/reboot, which she also co-wrote and produced. Tracking has it much higher in the $60M, possibly $70M range over Wednesday to Monday.

 

Sing 2 is hoping to raise the bar on the openings for family movies at 3,900 theaters with a $40M-$50M start over 6 days. 

 

[KINGS MAN] is hoping for $15M over 5-days, $19M over 6 days but industry projections are higher at $20M over six at 3,100 theaters

 

Given their Saturday-Sunday play, Sony’s A Journal for Jordan and Lionsgate/Kingdom Story Company’s American Underdog are both expected to land in the single digit range for both that 2 day and Saturday through Monday span.

 

Matrix seems to high and Sing to low. Kingsman also seems high.

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Warner Bros., which is not holding previews for Matrix Resurrections tonight, is expecting $40M over Wednesday through Sunday for the Lana Wachowski directed R-rated sequel/reboot, which she also co-wrote and produced. Tracking has it much higher in the $60M, possibly $70M range over Wednesday to Monday.

 

Sing 2 is hoping to raise the bar on the openings for family movies at 3,900 theaters with a $40M-$50M start over 6 days. 

 

[KINGS MAN] is hoping for $15M over 5-days, $19M over 6 days but industry projections are higher at $20M over six at 3,100 theaters

 

Given their Saturday-Sunday play, Sony’s A Journal for Jordan and Lionsgate/Kingdom Story Company’s American Underdog are both expected to land in the single digit range for both that 2 day and Saturday through Monday span.

 

3 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Matrix seems to high and Sing to low. Kingsman also seems high.

 

Idk what the numbers will be, but I'm willing to bet Sing 2 beats Matrix Resurrections by at least $15M in 5 days. 

Edited December 21, 2021 by GoblinXXR

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

 

Idk what the numbers will be, but I'm willing to bet Sing 2 beats Matrix Resurrections by at least $15M in 5 days. 

 

The presales indicate that Sing will beat it on opening day and it already has 1.5M sneak previews banked (NTTD did 1M in comparison for early access previews). Since Matrix has hardcore fans wanted to see it early and HBO Max to slow it down after that I really cant see Matrix getting anywhere near it. 40M for Matrix over 5 days and 55-60 for SING2 would be my rough guess.

[lorddemaxus]

Who tf are these parents that are taking their kids to watch Sing 2 even with this Omicron scare and everything?