The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, HT3 doing what it is on MT while Skyscraper is nowhere to be found is not good at all for the latter. Skyscraper isn't the kind of movie that would be big on pre-sales, but neither is HT3. So I'd say either HT3 is doing an absurdly high number no one sees coming or Skyscraper is going to be 30m or less. 

Fandango sales today (well since 4:00 am):

 

Ant-Man	8317
Incredib	3101
Jurassic	2663
The Firs	1212
Sicario	631
Hotel Tr	619
Uncle Dr	542
Oceans 8	491
Wont You	329
Tag (201	220
Whitney	209
Skyscrap	170
Solo A S	167
Mamma M	156
Deadpool	156
Attack o	132
Avengers	125
Mission	96
Sanju	94
Trolls	91
Sorry to	83
Beatles	60
Heredita	58
The Equa	36

 

 

Mothers planning the activity in advance is a possible phenomenon for a movie like HT vs a Skyscraper and obviously being a sequel, that said the delta between the 2 is quite huge at the moment. But even more than for a Jurassic Park, pre-sales much in advance much be such a tiny ridiculous fraction of a movie like that business that it must have a lot of noise if we could look at the usual multiplier (who are those people buying ticket in advance for movie like those.....).

 

Mamma Mia tend to outsell cleanly Mission Impossible since the beginning also (making the rumors it was tracking ahead not crazy at all)

Edited July 9, 2018 by Barnack

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Fandango sales today (well since 4:00 am):

 

Mamma M	156
Mission	96

 

 

 

 

Mamma Mia tend to outsell cleanly Mission Impossible since the beginning also (making the rumors it was tracking ahead not crazy at all)

Holly shit! This can't be happening!!

[Barnack]

Just now, Alli said:

Holly shit! This can't be happening!!

Mamma mia doing a 65m would not surprise me one bit to be honest (I am not sure which number would surprise me, 41 Ocean 8 type would not, 65-70m would not either)

[Alli]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Mamma mia doing a 65m would not surprise me one bit to be honest (I am not sure which number would surprise me, 41 Ocean 8 type would not, 65-70m would not either)

but but  it looks so bad.

 

Is cher that much of a draw?

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

but but  it looks so bad.

 

Is cher that much of a draw?

Abba + returning Assemble cast much more important here, but it is simply the sequel of one of the biggest and most beloved movie of all time, it could go really high (and have terrible legs versus the over 5.0 of the first one)

[Eric is Quiet]

5 minutes ago, Alli said:

Holly shit! This can't be happening!!

Look, I know you love the Cruise Missile, but I don't think we need to get worried here. Mission: Impossible ain't gonna be a movie that's reliant on presales, and female-driven films like Mamma Mia sometimes generate big presales (Fifty Shades as an example). Mamma Mia's also closer to release, which generally leads to more ticket sales. Take a breather, think about things for a minute, and recognize that everything's fine.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Abba + returning Assemble cast much more important here, but it is simply the sequel of one of the biggest and most beloved movie of all time, it could go really high (and have terrible legs versus the over 5.0 of the first one)

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

It was Universal most profitable movie ever and for a long time if it got beat in 2015, it still has many all time record in many market some that could stay unbeated (dvd sales notably, it's soundtrack also sold like crazy)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_the_United_Kingdom

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/sweden/yearly/?yr=2008&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/uk/yearly/?yr=2008&p=.htm

 

Made more than the Dark Knight in the UK.

 

It would not surprise me if the american audience caught up to it simply later than the rest of the world.

 

But at the same time maybe not, thus the I am not sure what OW number would surprise me, it is wide open imo.

 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Who doesn't think a movie that features Meryl Streep, Christine Baranski, and Julie Walters singing and dancing to Dancing Queen is perfection incarnate?

[KeepItU25071906]

#MissionImpossibleFallout is shooting for a $60 million-plus box office launch https://t.co/ChGBvYyDrp pic.twitter.com/KIY4fpLwVP

— Variety (@Variety) 9 июля 2018 г.

[Mojoguy]

They said because Incredibles 2 is so strong HT3 would underperform. Instead it is looking like HT3 will open strongly and likely hurt Incredibles 2

Well I2 has already made 500m at this point, so much of its audience has already seen it. People are ready to see something else.

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Well I2 has already made 500m at this point, so much of its audience has already seen it. People are ready to see something else.

Not to mention a lack of big animated films this year certainly helps.

[Biggestgeekever]

First tracking for Rogue Nation was $40M, for what it's worth

 

https://variety.com/2015/film/news/box-office-early-tracking-soft-for-mission-impossible-1201541833/

 

Also looks like this tracking was a week closer to release than the ones we just got for Fallout.

Edited July 9, 2018 by Biggestgeekever

[Alli]

40 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

First tracking for Rogue Nation was $40M, for what it's worth

 

https://variety.com/2015/film/news/box-office-early-tracking-soft-for-mission-impossible-1201541833/

 

Also looks like this tracking was a week closer to release than the ones we just got for Fallout.

yes. i think this franchise skews older male and it's walk up heavy.

 

 

Edited July 9, 2018 by Alli

[dxmatrixdt]

37 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

First tracking for Rogue Nation was $40M, for what it's worth

 

https://variety.com/2015/film/news/box-office-early-tracking-soft-for-mission-impossible-1201541833/

 

Also looks like this tracking was a week closer to release than the ones we just got for Fallout.

I remember Mi5 was tracking around the same a few back....maybe 2015.

[dxmatrixdt]

here is a good read at boxofficeprophets.  the article is as good as any one of the other classics in the huge archives of predictions and analysis at BOP.  this one made a funny mention to Denzel being like Jason Vorhees.  *Infinity War spoiler in the opening Ant-Man prediction

 

 

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=19492

Some of the biggest movie stars of the modern era each carry a new release into this July, but there's a superhero movie coming out, so, uh, that's the end of the horse race.

 

Edited July 10, 2018 by dVmatrixmathi5xdU

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed
A Quiet Place	2177	4003	10665
Blockers	504	1106	2931
Rampage	705	1508	4109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2133
Super Troopers	2825	3447	6881
I Feel Pretty	871	1610	4423
Avengers: Infinity War	49836	54892	68826
Overboard	84	409	1044
Breaking In	727	1204	2899
Life Of The Party	587	1310	3010
Deadpool 2	23134	28896	41212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1599	3283
SW: Solo	13688	15855	28533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1268
Oceans 8	3009	4372	11114
Hereditary	659	1178	3181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20872	23430	39337
Tag	314	660	1448
Jurassic World 2	9310	12761	23,266
Sicaro 2	788	1282	3403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1201
Antman & The Wasp	6613	5990	11108
Purge (WED OD)	2885	8308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753
Skyscaper	586

 

 

Skyscraper at 83% of Rampage's Monday (if that held - $29.67m opening)

Trans 3 at  8.4% of Incredibles 2 (no great comp since I2 should be much more pre-sale heavy than the usual animation)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

Monday numbers for current & upcoming films

 

In Theaters
AM&TW	22,029
Incredibles	7,924
JW:FK	7,304
July 13th
Hotel Trans 3	1,753
Skyscraper	586
July 20th
Mamma Mia 2	436
Equalizer	128
July 27th
MI6	286
Aug 3rd
Christoper Robin	125

[MCKillswitch123]

13 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Who doesn't think a movie that features Meryl Streep, Christine Baranski, and Julie Walters singing and dancing to Dancing Queen is perfection incarnate?

Gurl plz, Amanda Seyfried is the real draw here 

[Boxofficerules]

Screw Mamma Mia, I want a movie version of The Book Of Mormon!