The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

The Wrap:

 

Madea: $18-20M

Greta: $6M

 

https://www.thewrap.com/a-madea-family-funeral-to-quietly-enter-box-office-on-slow-pre-captain-marvel-weekend/

[filmlover]

Also Green Book will be more than doubling its theater count and will be in 2,600 theaters this weekend according to that article. Should do $4M for the weekend at a minimum.

Edited February 27, 2019 by filmlover

[Lordmandeep]

Based on presales in my area, it seems Captain Marvel will open in the 150+ range.

 

Thinking 140-160 million right now is the best range. 

[fabiopazzo2]

2019-02-27 19:00:33.880478 UTC
1	26.6%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	8.5%	Alita: Battle Angel
3	6.9%	Fighting with My Family
4	6%	Isn't It Romantic
5	5.9%	Captain Marvel

[Nova]

I know I’ve mentioned this before but ever since Solo burned my theater by not being as big as thought, they go easy on showtimes throughout the weekend for openers that are supposedly going to be big. Captain Marvel is pretty much sold out for Thursday night and these guys haven’t added anymore show times yet 

 

 

My point is that, Captain Marvel is doing gangbusters at my theater and yet my theater isn’t accommodating for it. 

[rishijoesanu]

Since CM's selling ahead of BP (I know percentages matter), what are the odds that it opens to $183M, thereby taking the all time #8 opening record from Incredibles 2?

[Nova]

11 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

Since CM's selling ahead of BP (I know percentages matter), what are the odds that it opens to $183M, thereby taking the all time #8 opening record from Incredibles 2?

I think a safe range for it at this point would be somewhere between $140-160M (I know that's a large range but that's what happens when movies open this big). I was at $140-$150M yesterday but looking at other data, I'm thinking the higher end is going to happen now. But I think what will push it over that edge is 1. Reviews for the movie and 2. WOM. If it can get really good reviews and develop WOM throughout the weekend, it can push that $180M-$200M range. Not sure it has enough to get it over the $200M hump though but we shall see. 

[rishijoesanu]

If you had to place odds on a March record based on the current data, what % would you pick?

Edited February 27, 2019 by rishijoesanu

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

If you had to place odds on a March record based on the current data, what % would you pick?

Given the fact that the social media reactions for the film have been really good, I'm expecting really good reviews for the movie. The problem is that $174.7M is A LOT of money. Like Captain Marvel could open to $170M which would be a shit ton of money and yet still miss the March opening record. 

 

Right now I would say it has a 30% chance of breaking it. But give me another week to see data trends with Fandango and any other updates from posters and I may raise that. 

[Wonder89]

37 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

Since CM's selling ahead of BP (I know percentages matter), what are the odds that it opens to $183M, thereby taking the all time #8 opening record from Incredibles 2?

It is selling ahead of BP?

[Eric Prime]

9 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

If you had to place odds on a March record based on the current data, what % would you pick?

Probably about 20%. Judging from my own theater, as well as other anecdotes, hype is there, but not to to the all-time extremes that any of the top 10 OWs had. But there is an outside chance if release week sees a massive spike, if walk-ups are prominent, and/or if reviews are stellar. But right now, like @Nova I'm predicting O/U Hunger Games, give or take $10M. Hopefully give.

[Lordmandeep]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

I know I’ve mentioned this before but ever since Solo burned my theater by not being as big as thought, they go easy on showtimes throughout the weekend for openers that are supposedly going to be big. Captain Marvel is pretty much sold out for Thursday night and these guys haven’t added anymore show times yet 

 

 

My point is that, Captain Marvel is doing gangbusters at my theater and yet my theater isn’t accommodating for it. 

 

At my theater they had a AVX show with 1 ticket sold when they could have played some random indian movie and sold the place out. 

[AndyK]

38 minutes ago, Nova said:

Given the fact that the social media reactions for the film have been really good, I'm expecting really good reviews for the movie. The problem is that $174.7M is A LOT of money. Like Captain Marvel could open to $170M which would be a shit ton of money and yet still miss the March opening record. 

 

Right now I would say it has a 30% chance of breaking it. But give me another week to see data trends with Fandango and any other updates from posters and I may raise that. 

Social media reactions have been good but they havent been OTT ecstatic like with Thor Rag.

[john2000]

8 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Social media reactions have been good but they havent been OTT ecstatic like with Thor Rag.

it depends i think that they are better than thor not better than black panther still it seems like they are trying not to say much even for reactions

Edited February 27, 2019 by john2000

[TwoMisfits]

It's fascinating the current presale sets for Captain Marvel at my local theaters...

 

The supers-selling theater is only preselling 1 2d screen...

The non-supers-selling theater is preselling 5 screens...

 

A local 14 has it on EIGHT screens...the mall 16 has it on 3...

 

Now, it will be interesting to see how many screens the lower-booked theaters add for CM next week...I'm pretty certain the 5 and 8 screens are tops for those 2 theaters...

[Porthos]

Speaking of local theaters, one of the heavy hitters locally (which shall remain nameless) only has one screening up for CM at the moment.  

 

It's currently at 87.5% capacity with only 20 seats left. 

 

When it puts up its temp slate in the next few days, I expect a lot of sales there as folks locally realize it has seats available.

 

Now, to be fair, they're usually a slowpoke for putting up their first slate.  But I must admit I've been a bit surprised that they didn't even add one more showing as they've been at 24 seats left for a couple of weeks.

 

===

 

If we want to talk about good omens (as opposed to Good Omens ;)), CM is starting to fill up the 9pm and later showings.  Also, Century Arden added a 1am showing for its PLF screen, which means something for sleepy Sacramento.

 

[Porthos]

Another thing I've noted:

 

A real lack of 3D screenings.  By  far the biggest 2D:3D ratio I've seen for the movies I've tracked locally (with the exception of DP2 natch).

 

Right now it's 87 2D screens and just 11 3D, which is 11.22% of screens.

 

Even the local Regal theaters, which have been trying for years to ram 3D down our throats for their premium times, look to have thrown up their hands and given up.

 

Now all I have to compare with the other films (without digging into history) is the final numbers, but here are the other ratios I've been tracking:

 

              2D:3D (3D percentage)

BP:       101:35 (25.74%)

IW:       129:53 (29.12%)

Solo:    107:36 (25.17%)

JW2:     110:38 (25.85%)

AM&tW:  78:36 (31.58%)

Venom:   98:29 (22.83%)

FB2:      106:25 (18.52%)

CM:         87:11 (11.22%)

 

It is true that I'm just dealing with a partial slate, so I fully expect the ratio to rise when the final screen count comes in.  But, I dunno.  It's notable to me just how few 3D showings have been available so far.

 

Could just be director preference, I suppose.  But I wonder if it's a sign of a greater trend, as both Venom and FB2 had lower 3D counts as well.

 

Anyone else seeing this, or is this maybe just a local blip?

Edited February 27, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Another thing I've noted:

 

A real lack of 3D screenings.  By  far the biggest 2D:3D ratio I've seen for the movies I've tracked locally (with the exception of DP2 natch).

 

Right now it's 87 2D screens and just 11 3D, which is 11.22% of screens.

 

Even the local Regal theaters, which have been trying for years to ram 3D down our throats for their premium times, look to have thrown up their hands and given up.

 

Now all I have to compare with the other films (without digging into history) is the final numbers, but here are the other ratios I've been tracking:

 

              2D:3D (3D percentage)

BP:       101:35 (25.74%)

IW:       129:53 (29.12%)

Solo:    107:36 (25.17%)

JW2:     110:38 (25.85%)

AM&tW:  78:36 (31.58%)

Venom:   98:29 (22.83%)

FB2:      106:25 (18.52%)

CM:         87:11 (11.22%)

 

It is true that I'm just dealing with a partial slate, so I fully expect the ratio to rise when the final screen count comes in.  But, I dunno.  It's notable to me just how few 3D showings have been available so far.

 

Could just be director preference, I suppose.  But I wonder if it's a sign of a greater trend, as both Venom and FB2 had lower 3D counts as well.

 

Anyone else seeing this, or is this maybe just a local blip?

My actual theater loves to play movies in 3D and sometimes the 3D showings are more than the 2D showings. Thats not the case with CM. Looking at other theaters in the area, some of them dont have any 3D showtimes up (specifically the Regal/United Artists by me) while the AMC's have them up but not as much as I thought there would be. 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Nova said:

My actual theater loves to play movies in 3D and sometimes the 3D showings are more than the 2D showings. Thats not the case with CM. Looking at other theaters in the area, some of them dont have any 3D showtimes up (specifically the Regal/United Artists by me) while the AMC's have them up but not as much as I thought there would be. 

Well, that's two data points.  Might be on to something here.  If so, be interesting to see if it depresses the overall total a bit with less 3D tickets floating around.  Or, on the other hand, it balances out a bit as more people buy up the 2D tickets instead of waiting/staying home.

 

Another interesting thing.  I just double checked: Not a single PLF screening locally is in 3D (as of now, I don't expect it to stay that way).  And I know for a fact that there are 3D IMAX showings floating around nationally.

 

Huh.

Edited February 27, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

@Porthos

 

Our local theater chain is showing 2D and 2D IMAX. No 3D. 

 

And for Thursday preview both IMAX locations are a Tele sell out for 7PM and half way sold for 9:45PM. (On mobile so cant check for the rest of the weekend)