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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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RealLyre Box Office Gold

RealLyre

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Porthos said:

MovieTickets.com.

 

They have a rolling 24 hour list of the Top Five Movies sold on their platform.  Used to be on their front page, but it seems to have disappeared from easy view.  akvalley's scraper/tracker is still picking it up though. 👍

do they include tickets sold through Fandango and other services?

 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

do they include tickets sold through Fandango and other services?

 

Just themselves.  They aren't as big as Fandango (or at least aren't anymore), but they can be a useful compare/contrast.

 

For whatever reason, they do seem to be a bit higher on indie/foreign films than Fandango (almost certainly down to the theaters they deal with), so they can be a useful guide on seeing how those films will do on an upcoming Top Ten.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

85

6951

10864*

36.02%

*NOTE: One theater removed a couple of blacked out seats for two of its showings, resulting in a net increase of 4 seats available

 

Total Seats Sold Today:             133

 

1.3554x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]*

.5046x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.5050x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1840x as many tickets sold as Solo 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.6350x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.3787x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

* See spoiler box for different comps with BP

 

Day T-13 Comp:

 

BP:      135 tickets sold [1 sellout/68 showings     |    3928/6815 seats left  | 42.36% sold]

IW:        94 tickets sold [3 sellouts/118 showings |   3541/11295 seats left  | 68.65% sold]

DP2:      96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/104 showings |  10369/12969 seats left | 20.05% sold]

Solo:     86 tickets sold [1 sellout/87 showings     |     6043/9348 seats left  | 35.36% sold]

JW2:      77 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |   8628/10113 seats left  | 14.68% sold]

FB2:      57 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11732/13377 seats left  | 12.30% sold]

 

====

 

Further BP Comps inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

79

5301

8421

37.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              96

 

1.0807x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

85

5873

9399*

37.51%

*NOTE: One theater removed a couple of blacked out seats for two of its showings, resulting in a net increase of 4 seats available

 

Total Seats Sold Today:            114

 

1.2213x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

Edited by Porthos
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LeoC Indie Sensation

LeoC

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

85

6951

10864*

36.02%

*NOTE: One theater removed a couple of blacked out seats for two of its showings, resulting in a net increase of 4 seats available

 

Total Seats Sold Today:             133

 

1.3554x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]*

.5046x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.5050x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1840x as many tickets sold as Solo 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.6350x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.3787x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

* See spoiler box for different comps with BP

 

Day T-13 Comp:

 

BP:      135 tickets sold [1 sellout/68 showings     |    3928/6815 seats left  | 42.36% sold]

IW:        94 tickets sold [3 sellouts/118 showings |   3541/11295 seats left  | 68.65% sold]

DP2:      96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/104 showings |  10369/12969 seats left | 20.05% sold]

Solo:     86 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings   |     6043/9348 seats left  | 35.36% sold]

JW2:      77 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |   8628/10113 seats left  | 14.8% sold]

FB2:      57 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11732/13377 seats left  | 12.30% sold]

 

====

 

Further BP Comps inside Spoiler Box:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Looks healthy!

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

85

6951

10864*

36.02%

*NOTE: One theater removed a couple of blacked out seats for two of its showings, resulting in a net increase of 4 seats available

 

Total Seats Sold Today:             133

 

1.3554x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]*

.5046x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.5050x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1840x as many tickets sold as Solo 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.6350x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.3787x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 13 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

* See spoiler box for different comps with BP

 

Day T-13 Comp:

 

BP:      135 tickets sold [1 sellout/68 showings     |    3928/6815 seats left  | 42.36% sold]

IW:        94 tickets sold [3 sellouts/118 showings |   3541/11295 seats left  | 68.65% sold]

DP2:      96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/104 showings |  10369/12969 seats left | 20.05% sold]

Solo:     86 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings   |     6043/9348 seats left  | 35.36% sold]

JW2:      77 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |   8628/10113 seats left  | 14.8% sold]

FB2:      57 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11732/13377 seats left  | 12.30% sold]

 

====

 

Further BP Comps inside Spoiler Box:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

wow nice it keeps increasing 

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Horner Sleeper Hit

Horner

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Porthos said:

Just themselves.  They aren't as big as Fandango (or at least aren't anymore), but they can be a useful compare/contrast.

 

 

I believe Fandango actually bought them a couple of years ago.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

87

6927

10930

36.62%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        2

Total Seats Added Today:            66

Total Seats Sold Today:                90

 

1.3321x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 12 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]*

.5122x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 12 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.4685x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 12 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1928x as many tickets sold as Solo 12 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.6163x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 12 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.3603x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 12 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

* See spoiler box for different comps with BP

 

Day T-12 Comp:

 

BP:      118 tickets sold [1 sellout/68 showings     |    3810/6815 seats left  | 44.09% sold]

IW:        62 tickets sold [3 sellouts/118 showings |   3479/11295 seats left  | 69.20% sold]

DP2:    126 tickets sold [0 sellouts/104 showings |  10243/12969 seats left | 21.02% sold]

Solo:     51 tickets sold [1 sellout/87 showings     |     5992/9348 seats left  | 35.90% sold]

JW2:      45 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |   8583/10113 seats left  | 15.13% sold]

FB2:      51 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11681/13377 seats left  | 12.68% sold]

 

====

 

Further BP Comps inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

81

5298

8487

37.58%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        2

Total Seats Added Today:            66

Total Seats Sold Today:               69

 

1.0612x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 12 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

87

5865

9465

38.03%

 

 

Total Showings Added Today:        2

Total Seats Added Today:            66

Total Seats Sold Today:               74

 

1.1980x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 12 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

Edited by Porthos
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

The jury still isn't completely out yet.  But for those who were thinking (hoping???) that Captain Marvel  would pull a Solo, I gotta tell you, it ain't looking good in that department:

 

(Tickets sold locally that day) [Edited in the exact like-for-like comp to make it fairer]

T-16:

Solo:  58

CM:    52  (social media embargo lift 9:30pm)

 

T-15:

Solo:  73

CM:    72 (first full 24 hours post  social embargo lift)

 

T-14:

Solo:   59 (World Premiere | social media embargo lift 9:30pm)

CM:   100

 

T-13:

Solo:   86 (first full 24 hours post social media embargo lift)

CM:  114

 

T-12:

Solo:  51

CM:    74

 

I say that because CM has gotten a much bigger boost from its social media embargo lift than Solo did. Solo did have a slightly larger day-after bounce (when exact theater-for-theater is factored in).  But it only lasted one day before falling back down.

 

CM, on the other hand, had a sustained boost of a few days which only now is starting to taper off a bit.

 

As a side point, Solo also had the World Premiere attention lavished on it at that time, though reviews were still embargoed until five days later when it showed at Cannes (tbf, Solo does get another lift then). 

 

Seeing the tepid bounce for Solo was when the butterflies really started to float in my stomach, even if I tried to present a brave face to the public at the time.

 

But here?  As I said in the mothership thread, it may not be blasting off like Black Panther did, but it certainly is doing better than Solo did after its social media embargo lift.

 

It's also starting to pull ahead of Solo in percentage of seats sold (36.62% vs 35.90%).

 

Now, as I said, Solo is due for another bounce in three days time as the reviews start to come in.  But, even so, that'll only do so much.

 

======

 

This doesn't mean Captain Marvel is guaranteed not to stall out and hit a ceiling.  Just... the early returns ain't good for it happening, is all I iz saying. :)

 

Edited by Porthos
Edited in the like-for-like exact comp to make it fairer
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Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Past movies. Not current data. I wanted to compare CM with few movies as @CoolEric258 doesn't post regularly. Not a complain. 

 

There's a complete historical record of all the data akvalley has downloaded here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NBK-Sj8qK3GXl-iOdHYeD94YRNxWJ9HqZ9OKdGoSx2o/edit#gid=1246392742

 

Each sheet represents a separate week. And within that sheet is every movie that had tickets sold for that week, broken down by when the tickets were purchased. 

 

No 24 roll arounds but this is all we got

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Eric Furiosa Global Phenomenon

Eric Furiosa

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Premium George said:

Past movies. Not current data. I wanted to compare CM with few movies as @CoolEric258 doesn't post regularly. Not a complain. 

So feasby's suggestion I finally considered, and I've decided that I'll have my data available free for the public to look at.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=1244698450

 

It's not as dense as akvalley's historical data, and it doesn't go back super far (I just don't have the time to look through akvalley's stuff, but I'll gladly let someone else do it for me and just PM what they found), but I feel like my layout's simpler to look at, and far less complicated. The first tab is what I usually post on weekdays, while the following tabs are what the upcoming bigly movies got each week. It's very rough right now, considering there's only about 6 or so movies being tracked, but I'm sure this will be helpful.

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Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

So feasby's suggestion I finally considered, and I've decided that I'll have my data available free for the public to look at.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=1244698450

 

It's not as dense as akvalley's historical data, and it doesn't go back super far (I just don't have the time to look through akvalley's stuff, but I'll gladly let someone else do it for me and just PM what they found), but I feel like my layout's simpler to look at, and far less complicated. The first tab is what I usually post on weekdays, while the following tabs are what the upcoming bigly movies got each week. It's very rough right now, considering there's only about 6 or so movies being tracked, but I'm sure this will be helpful.

Thanks so much :) 

 

Did you want to add the BP sales I worked out from the historical data? 

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

So feasby's suggestion I finally considered, and I've decided that I'll have my data available free for the public to look at.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=1244698450

 

It's not as dense as akvalley's historical data, and it doesn't go back super far (I just don't have the time to look through akvalley's stuff, but I'll gladly let someone else do it for me and just PM what they found), but I feel like my layout's simpler to look at, and far less complicated. The first tab is what I usually post on weekdays, while the following tabs are what the upcoming bigly movies got each week. It's very rough right now, considering there's only about 6 or so movies being tracked, but I'm sure this will be helpful.

whats your prediction about captain marvel ow ?

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Wttt said:

Avengers 4 tickets goes live on April 2nd 

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/marvelstudios/comments/au99s0/endgame_tickets_tentatively_onsale_42_heres_a/?utm_source=reddit-android

So late! I hope this doesn’t mean no 2nd trailer until then.

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