The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

It's Brie's hometown ffs.

should we also get a tracking from deadline today no ?

[Darth Lehnsherr]

8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It's Brie's hometown ffs.

Noticeable factor to skew the data?

[rishijoesanu]

13 minutes ago, john2000 said:

should we also get a tracking from deadline today no ?

What time does it come out usually?

[rishijoesanu]

19 minutes ago, Nero said:

Origin movies generally aren't frontloaded

 

22 minutes ago, Nero said:

Origin movies generally aren't frontloaded

This is practically Infinity War 1.5 no?

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

What time does it come out usually?

i am in a different timezone sorry maybe around 9 morning ? 🤷‍♂️

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

 

This is practically Infinity War 1.5 no?

nah they advertise the movie as a standalone at most i think it it will  be a little more frontloaed that the usual solo movie but not by much  

Edited March 4, 2019 by john2000

[Premium George]

Tracking will come around $130m or even $120m. Predictions.

Again, tracking doesn't take presells into account.

[Porthos]

41 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It's Brie's hometown ffs.

*checks*

 

So it is.   I really haven't been paying attention to stuff like that as I'm not a Marvel fan and am just tracking on pure data.

 

(if this was a SW flick, I would have known, however )

 

33 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Noticeable factor to skew the data?

I mean, maybe?  However Sacramento has been broadly in line with other tracking data before today.

Think it's more random variation, number of showings scheduled, and our own demographics* here.

 

But, sure, might be playing a part.

 

* We have a couple of major colleges within the area (UC Davis and Sac State) and have other demos that would appeal to this type of flick (he said obliquely to avoid the discussion that is plaguing the main CM thread)

Edited March 4, 2019 by Porthos

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Tracking will come around $130m or even $120m. Predictions.

Again, tracking doesn't take presells into account.

is it coming today ? (yes i know that still 130 is an improvement from their side )

[Premium George]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

is it coming today ? (yes i know that still 130 is an improvement from their side )

I think so. Maybe in next 4-6 hours.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, Premium George said:

Tracking will come around $130m or even $120m. Predictions.

Again, tracking doesn't take presells into account.

Agreed. They probably gonna up the range from $ 100 - 120 to $ 120 - 130M.

 

Final tracking for BP was $ 165 - 185M 4-day.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, rishijoesanu said:

 

This is practically Infinity War 1.5 no?

Yes, we’ll discover Carol is actually Thanos mother in this film.

 

jk

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Agreed. They probably gonna up the range from $ 100 - 120 to $ 120 - 130M.

 

Final tracking for BP was $ 165 - 185M 4-day.

we will see in how many hours can we expect it ?

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

we will see in how many hours can we expect it ?

Anything between 4 - 7 hours, if they really drop today.

 

I think maybe with the premiere tonight and reviews right after, they could wait to see how it goes and drop the tracking tomorrow, but this is just guessing.

[Nero]

2 hours ago, rishijoesanu said:

 

This is practically Infinity War 1.5 no?

No. It's an origin movie of Captain Marvel which is connected to Endgame but standalone. So it won't be frontloaded

[TMP]

WoM for Captain Marvel is gonna be incredible going off of social media reactions. Wouldn’t even rule out a 4x multiplier 

[Deep Wang]

59 minutes ago, TMP said:

Wouldn’t even rule out a 4x multiplier 

 

Yeah, let’s hold off on that.  Getting a 3x of a huge weekend is hard enough. 

[Horner]

1 hour ago, Nero said:

No. It's an origin movie of Captain Marvel which is connected to Endgame but standalone. So it won't be frontloaded

 

And that connection to Endgame is, so far, pretty much limited to the IW post-credit tease.  CM's marketing hasn't touched on a connection at all while clearly pushing it as a prequel.  The smattering of Endgame marketing hasn't touched on it either outside of leaked merchandise imagery.

[Brainbug]

I dont think we should base our predictions on the multipilier on social media reactions. These were also absolutely glowing for films like Thor 3, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Infinity War or Civil War.

 

Even The Avengers (2012) and Black Panther, the two MCU movies with the best WOM i would think, fell well short of a 4 multi.

 

And that has to do with the massive OW and fanrush of these movies. Captain Marvel is an origin movie yes, but its also a MCU film and that will mean it will be frontloaded on OW and generally for its run, no matter how good it may be. Getting something like 19M in Previews and 160M for the OW will mean that it is absolutely impossible for the film to get a 4 multi in my opinion.

Edited March 4, 2019 by Brainbug

[Premium George]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I dont think we should base our predictions on the multipilier on social media reactions. These were also absolutely glowing for films like Thor 3, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Infinity War or Civil War.

 

Even The Avengers (2012) and Black Panther, the two MCU movies with the best WOM i would think, fell well short of a 4 multi.

 

And that has to do with the massive OW and fanrush of these movies. Captain Marvel is an origin movie yes, but its also a MCU film and that will mean it will be frontloaded on OW and generally for its run, no matter how good it may be. Getting something like 19M in Previews and 160M for the OW will mean that it is absolutely impossible for the film to get a 4 multi in my opinion.

Only one person did. Just saying so, in future people don't say that everyone was predicting 4x.