The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

15 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

You think it's a bad sign? I know that it's discount Tuesday but you'd I figured we might see a bit of a spike from increased interest after the premiere.

Not really. Being close to BP is still great for it and it's still ahead of BP's Tuesday on Fandango.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Do you feel the screening count is more due to the barren market or perceived demand? I realize those two go hand in hand, but I guess I'm wondering if this is a case of theatres simply filling their cinemas with showtimes, as if to say "Hey, look! We finally have something good!" or if it's more "Okay, this is going to be a monster. We better add x number of showtimes", on top of the barren market factor.

Honestly, I think it's both.  There hasn't been much going around in the cinemas AND they want to scoop up as much as they can as quick as they can.  They saw the monster numbers for BP and IW and figure that even if it won't approach either of those two when it comes to selling out, they'll still do better than whatever else they could show Thr night.

 

I used to look at the FSS screen count, but I haven't been doing that as much recently.  I'll probably go ahead and do that for CM since I did it for BP and IW.  I reckon that BP, at least, should have a bit of an edge on the Sunday screen count since it had a holiday Monday.

 

Without looking though, I expect IW to slaughter CM on the FSS screen count, as that is where the chains really crammed in as many showings as they could.

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Honestly, I think it's both.  There hasn't been much going around in the cinemas AND they want to scoop up as much as they can as quick as they can.  They saw the monster numbers for BP and IW and figure that even if it won't approach either of those two when it comes to selling out, they'll still do better than whatever else they could show Thr night.

 

I used to look at the FSS screen count, but I haven't been doing that as much recently.  I'll probably go ahead and do that for CM since I did it for BP and IW.  I reckon that BP, at least, should have a bit of an edge on the Sunday screen count since it had a holiday Monday.

 

Without looking though, I expect IW to slaughter CM on the FSS screen count, as that is where the chains really crammed in as many showings as they could.

Out of reactions, but thanks!

 

 

[FlashMaster659]

MT

 

2019-03-06 02:00:32.538268 UTC
1	31%	Captain Marvel
2	16.9%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	12.7%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	4.5%	Alita: Battle Angel
5	3.6%	Greta

2018-02-14 02:01:17.726401 UTC
1	35.4%	Black Panther
2	24.2%	Fifty Shades Freed
3	6%	Peter Rabbit
4	5.6%	15:17 to Paris, The
5	3.1%	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

[Joyous Legion]

Movietickets and Fandango seem to be telling different stories here, most recent Fandango 24 hr num is 39.1k. Don’t have a particular hypothesis about that.

[FlashMaster659]

Fandango

 

21:00 39.1k

[Porthos]

50 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I used to look at the FSS screen count, but I haven't been doing that as much recently.  I'll probably go ahead and do that for CM since I did it for BP and IW.  I reckon that BP, at least, should have a bit of an edge on the Sunday screen count since it had a holiday Monday.

 

Without looking though, I expect IW to slaughter CM on the FSS screen count, as that is where the chains really crammed in as many showings as they could.

Just did a check.  Now the CM FSS count isn't remotely close to being full yet, so I went back and checked my spreadsheet for BP and IW on the Tue of release week:

 

IW (Tue before release)

Fri:     332 screenings (ended up with 391 and 2 sellouts by Thr)

Sat:    332 screenings (ended up with 389 and 2 sellouts by Thr)

Sun:   321 screenings (ended up with 370 and 0 sellouts by Thr)

Any screenings added after Thr weren't tracked.

 

CM (as of right now)

Fri:     275 screenings 

Sat:    277 screenings

Sun:   265 screenings

 

The comparison with BP is a little more difficult, due to the theater that opened post-BP, so I'll give a special comp for BP:

 

BP (Tue before release): 

Fri:    257 screenings, 2 sellouts (ended up with 285 screenings and 3 sellouts by Thr)

Sat:   259 screenings (ended up with 286 screenings and 0 sellouts by Thr)

Sun:  258 screenings (ended up with 285 screenings and 0 sellouts by Thr)

Mon: 255 screenings (ended up with 281 screenings and 0 sellouts by Thr)

Any screenings added after Thr weren't tracked.

 

CM (w/out Delta Shores) (as of right now)

Fri:     251 screenings 

Sat:    253 screenings

Sun:   241 screenings

 

===

 

@JB33

 

So on a theater for theater track CM is running neck and neck with BP when it comes to screen counts, except for the expected difference in Sunday showings.  Well behind IW, also as I expected.  

 

Looking at the final total for BP though, I won't be too surprised if CM moves beyond it on a screen count basis even on a like-for-like comparison.  Ain't touching IW though.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Porthos

[JB33]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just did a check.  Now the CM FSS count isn't remotely close to being full yet, so I went back and checked my spreadsheet for BP and IW on the Tue of release week:

 

IW (Tue before release)

Fri:     332 screenings (ended up with 391 and 2 sellouts by Thr)

Sat:    332 screenings (ended up with 389 and 2 sellouts by Thr)

Sun:   321 screenings (ended up with 370 and 0 sellouts by Thr)

Any screenings added after Thr weren't tracked.

 

CM (as of right now)

Fri:     275 screenings 

Sat:    277 screenings

Sun:   265 screenings

 

The comparison with BP is a little more difficult, due to the theater that opened post-BP, so I'll give a special comp for BP:

 

BP (Tue before release): 

Fri:    257 screenings, 2 sellouts (ended up with 285 screenings and 3 sellouts by Thr)

Sat:   259 screenings (ended up with 286 screenings and 0 sellouts by Thr)

Sun:  258 screenings (ended up with 285 screenings and 0 sellouts by Thr)

Mon: 255 screenings (ended up with 281 screenings and 0 sellouts by Thr)

Any screenings added after Thr weren't tracked.

 

CM (w/out Delta Shores) (as of right now)

Fri:     251 screenings 

Sat:    253 screenings

Sun:   241 screenings

 

===

 

@JB33

 

So on a theater for theater track CM is running neck and neck with BP when it comes to screen counts, except for the expected difference in Sunday showings.  Well behind IW, also as I expected.  

 

Looking at the final total for BP though, I won't be too surprised if CM moves beyond it on a screen count basis even on a like-for-like comparison.  Ain't touching IW though.

Interesting. This really is shaping up to be a mini Black Panther. You wonder how much of BP's $202M opening weekend came on account of the holiday weekend. If one were to speculate on what that number would be, it would be interesting to see how close CM's OW will come to that. They could end up being more similar than any of us think.

[Lordmandeep]

This is on a much wider screen count then BP in my area so hard to compare. 

[Joyous Legion]

7 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Some hourly check-ins on the Fandango 24 hr tracker:  

Spoiler

 

Tues 3/5   

12:00 39.6k

13:00  39.8k

14:00  38.8k

15:00  38.8k

16:00  38.6k     

17:00  38.5k

18:00  38.8k

19:00 38.6k

 

 

20:00 38.1k

21:00 39.1k 

 

As we can see it’s trending down a bit (1k in 4 hours), not sure if that will continue or reverse. Still as long as it ends near Monday’s 34K (which would also be near BP’s Tuesday 36k) that will be very healthy.

22:00 38.8k      

23:00 38.2k

00:00 38.4k

 

Looking to beat BP imo, but we’ll see how next 3 hours go.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

Largest theater where I'm at has also gone crazy with 29 Thursday night showtimes for CM, not sure exact comps but I don't remember ever seeing previews come anywhere near this amount of showings before.

[FlashMaster659]

The theater with the most screens near me has 43 Thursday night showtimes for CM

[cax16]

Preview night at my theatre for reserved seating is currently 

 

435/1328

 

That’s for 4 showtimes. There’s also two other screens but I can’t track cause it’s not reserved seating.

 

I live just North of Toronto(Canada)

 

I don’t have exact numbers from previous cbm but this is pretty good. It’s pretty  close to what BP had but not as much. Going forward I’ll keep the data from preview nights for big tent pole movies. I’ll update this on Thursday with final sales. 

Edited March 6, 2019 by cax16

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Preview night at my theatre for reserved seating is currently 

 

435/1328

 

That’s for 4 showtimes. There’s also two other screens but I can’t track cause it’s not reserved seating.

 

I live just North of Toronto(Canada)

 

I don’t have exact numbers from previous cbm but this is pretty good. It’s pretty  close to what BP had but not as much. Going forward I’ll keep the data from preview nights for big tent pole movies. I’ll update this on Thursday with final sales. 

Appreciated!

[Joyous Legion]

Should beat BP on Fandango for today, but pretty tough to tell how meaningful that is with the review embargo drop. Perhaps better to compare to IW today, which had the same embargo release timing. IW Fandango tickets on Tues were +10% of Mon, same for CM would be 37.4k. That looks pretty close.   

 

Edit

23:00 38.2k

00:00 38.4k    

 

Wait for CoolEric in about an hour to calculate the more precise number, but I think it will be above 37.4k

Edited March 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Eric the Minion]

Get ready fam. I've got an update for y'all in about an hour

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Get ready fam. I've got an update for y'all in about an hour

40k please 

[FlashMaster659]

01:00 38.5k

[Eric the Minion]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Black Panther

35,429

36,302

39,934

65,453

Avengers: Infinity War

49,836

54,892

68,826

206,000

Deadpool 2

23,134

28,896

41,212

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

Incredibles 2

20,872

23,430

39,337

Venom

13,602

13,818

20,867

31,569

A Star Is Born

9,115

11,383

22,641

21,501

Fantastic Beasts

8,956

14,238

21,861

31,880

Aquaman

8,502

9,671

15,063

Captain Marvel

33,951

37,060

 

Tuesday Comps:

102% of Black Panther (206.2M)

67% of Infinity War (174M)

128% of Deadpool 2 (161M)

234% of Solo (197.3M)

158% of Incredibles 2 (289M)

268% of Venom (215.2M)

326% of A Star is Born (139.7M)

260% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (161.8M)

383% of Aquaman (260.1M)

 

Last 7 Days Comp:

85% of Black Panther (172.4M)

 

Day 17-Day 3 Comp:

66% of Black Panther (134.5M)

 

It's has come back down to Earth for a few comps, but it still manged to either stay steady or increase for many others. Again, conventional wisdom makes me want to follow the Marvel comps, but I still don't want to underestimate the female factor here. I have been more confident lately on the movie (was O/U Hunger Games for forever, now I'm O/U BvS), but I still want to be pessimistic and don't believe it will reach BatB numbers just yet.

[Joyous Legion]

Been meaning to ask, for the movies with Thurs numbers are those also theough midnight? Or only through when previews start?