June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)

[GiantCALBears]

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Transformers: The Last Knight	Paramount Pictures	$13,690,000	+68%	4,069	$3,364	$37,485,489	3
2	(2)	Cars 3	Walt Disney	$7,570,000	+71%	4,256	$1,779	$82,277,893	8
3	(3)	Wonder Woman	Warner Bros.	$7,350,000	+83%	3,933	$1,869	$300,555,158	22
4	(4)	47 Meters Down	Entertainment Studi…	$2,333,000	+89%	2,471	$944	$19,158,932	8
5	(5)	All Eyez on Me	Lionsgate	$1,895,000	+75%	2,471	$767	$34,687,319	8
6	(6)	The Mummy	Universal	$1,730,000	+62%	2,980	$581	$64,413,670	15
7	(7)	Pirates of the Caribbean: D…	Walt Disney	$1,598,000	+70%	2,453	$651	$156,363,326	29
8	(8)	Rough Night	Sony Pictures	$1,580,000	+80%	3,162	$500	$13,514,947	8
9	(9)	Captain Underpants: The Fir…	20th Century Fox	$1,460,000	+74%	2,328	$627	$62,923,176	22
10	(10)	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2	Walt Disney	$882,000	+73%	1,468	$601	$378,095,327	5

Those are some hefty increases across the board.

[a2k]

How much did GA view DP as a CBM and how much as a comedy. That will define it's drop imo. Comedy two-quels off late have dropped bigger. HangoverII, Ted2 ,Neighbors2, HorribleBosses2, Think Like a Man Too all dropped in varying degrees. Might seem absurd to compare DP to these pics but humor was a huge part of DP.

 

HangoverII like drop would give DP2 ~332.

Edited June 24, 2017 by a2knet

[YM!]

I am curious if Panther can outgross Deadpool 2 domestically.

[GiantCALBears]

Did not anticipate an animated film like Cars 3 jumping 70% Thu-Fri during the summer. 

Edited June 24, 2017 by GiantCALBears

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, YourMother said:

I am curious if Panther can outgross Deadpool 2 domestically.

bigger question. Can Black Panther out gross Infinity War? I think maybe

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

What's up with these big Friday increases near end of June? 

Maybe school just got out?

 

Although is any school still in session this late in June?

[James]

I am seriously wondering if WW2 has any chance at 500m (if it is good ofc and assuming this one ends with 400M).

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, James said:

I am seriously wondering if WW2 has any chance at 500m (if it is good ofc and assuming this one ends with 400M).

Probably a SM1 to SM2 situation

[The Panda]

18 minutes ago, XO21 said:

 

Yeah right after GOGT2 made $380m

 

And Civil War (aka Avengers 2.5) did right at 400m, decreasing from Ultron.

 

The GA aren't dumb, everyone realized Civil War was a follow up of AoU.  

 

The ceiling for crossover movies lowers with each movie.  People who skipped Civil War aren't going to go "Well, since there's more superheroes in this one, I'll go see it!" 

 

The issue is when you get to a point where an audience member needs to see 5+ films in order to understand (or have an interest) in your new film, you're going to have diminishing returns.  It was evident with Civil War's terrible legs.

 

Movies like GOTG Vol 2 and WW aren't effected by this because they're accessible to new audience members and people who aren't already fans of your franchise.  Infinity War cant expect to grow its audience when it's the ultimate convoluted crossover film.

[YM!]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

bigger question. Can Black Panther out gross Infinity War? I think maybe

Eh. I'd say 5% chance. But like WW and JL don't expect all of Panther's audience since a decent sized portion of the audience aren't the typical CBM audience.

[a2k]

BP had a good trailer but I think we are going over-board with expectations. Seriously think beating an original like DS (~232) is a legit good target, or say 250+ if DS seems low. WONDR is inflating expectations.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, James said:

I am seriously wondering if WW2 has any chance at 500m (if it is good ofc and assuming this one ends with 400M).

Nah. There's only one superhero movie that had that kind of sequel bump, and that was The Dark Knight.

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, YourMother said:

Eh. I'd say 5% chance. But like WW and JL don't expect all of Panther's audience since a decent sized portion of the audience aren't the typical CBM audience.

I mean I could see Infinity War going as low as BvS numbers in which case it will be very possible. with a safer IW prediction of maybe 380-390M it looks quite a bit harder

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

bigger question. Can Black Panther out gross Infinity War? I think maybe

Do you think Black Panther will make $400m?

[YM!]

Just now, a2knet said:

BP had a good trailer but I think we are going over-board with expectations. Seriously think beating an original like DS (~232) is a legit good target, or say 250+ if DS seems low. WONDR is inflating expectations.

However considering how well it could play during Black History Month and the breakouts of Get Out and Hidden Figures, I think $300M can happen but not $350M+.

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, cannastop said:

Do you think Black Panther will make $400m?

Not currently expecting it. I could see a scenario where it happens. I'll say Deadpool numbers for now though

[The Panda]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

How much did GA view DP as a CBM and how much as a comedy. That will define it's drop imo. Comedy two-quels off late have dropped bigger. HangoverII, Ted2 ,Neighbors2, HorribleBosses2, Think Like a Man Too all dropped in varying degrees. Might seem absurd to compare DP to these pics but humor was a huge part of DP.

 

HangoverII like drop would give DP2 ~332.

 

It depends on quality.  Had Hangover 2 been good, it would have increased from Hangover.

 

Also look at the Jump Street movies.

 

Comedy sequels can increase, they just need to be quality (as that determines legs which is crucial for a comedy), and they need to be of a movie that's marketable as a franchise and not a one-off concept.

 

Deadpool is a franchiseable character and a sequel can be done without feeling like a rehash of the first.

 

It's why I don't think Daddy's Home 2 will do well, as the original was a funny one-off concept (similar to a movie like Neighbors, Ted, etc).

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Maybe school just got out?

 

Although is any school still in session this late in June?

 

Ours were in session til yesterday...

[Brainbug]

Black Panther is a very big wildcard i think. It could do 250M or up to 350M. But i dont see how it could gross more than Deadpool.

[filmlover]

The Big Sick and The Beguiled are the real winners of the weekend as far as openers are concerned as both are looking to post the biggest opening theater averages of 2017 to date, and by a wide margin too (Beatriz at Dinner is next in line with $28K for its opening). Transformers 5 is just an embarrassment compared to the previous movies (which, in a way, is satisfying).