5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, baumer said:

This is the last time July 4th was a Tuesday  Deadline isn't using this model.  They are basically using their own, which doesn't work.  So if you use the only other opener from that week, Superman Returns, you get about 85 million.

 

If you use Cars, the only other animation aimed at kids, in the top ten that matters, then you get 93 million.  Either way, projecting it to do under 80 isn't realistic.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-06-30&track=superman06.htm

 

Cars wasn't in the ow that weekend. That's why it jumped 28% on Sat.

The one opner, Devil Wears Prada, dropped 1.3% on Sat. And without Thu previews that time.

Edited July 1, 2017 by a2knet

[AniNate]

Whatever Deadline's metrics are I'm sure they've taken more timely factors into consideration than a weekend 11 years ago

[baumer]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

 

Cars wasn't in the ow that weekend. That's why it jumped 28% on Sat.

The one opner, Devil Wears Prada, dropped 1.3% on Sat. And without Thu previews that time.

 

Superman was also in the OW.  Why would you use DWP?  That has no kid appeal at all.

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

 

 

DM3 recovered. It's number looks good.

 

 

 

How could it "recover" from anything?  Previews for animateds are always suspect when predicting OW...So, now we have the 1st real number...a pretty good Friday heading into a 5-day where it will perform well...

 

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

I have been saying for ages that 2017 is not the year for sequels irrespective of quality. 

I won't be shocked one bit if apes 3 is the lowest grossing in the franchise and Kingsman 2 underperforms big time. 

star wars could also suffer but i think there are enough sw lunatics to keep that afloat. Also, it will be the last time we will see Carrie fisher (god rest her soul) so that will help.

 

I have a feeling Apes is going to slightly break out and crack 225 m DOM.

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, wildphantom said:

All this talk about Valerian, but isn't the real story this weekend the absolute collapse of The Last Knight? I mean wow. $150 million looks over. 

 

We knew 150 m was over OD. 

 

 

Edited July 1, 2017 by grey ghost

[a2k]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Superman was also in the OW.  Why would you use DWP?  That has no kid appeal at all.

Opened on Wed. If Fri was the OD would have been tough to rise.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=superman06.htm

 

DM3 has to show a 17% bump from true Friday (24.5) to just stay flat from Full Friday (28.6) on Sat.

Edited July 1, 2017 by a2knet

[grey ghost]

4 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Yeah March is a perfect example of films succeeding all within a week of each other.  Logan, Kong, BATB, PR (on OW at least), and Boss Baby all did well despite going head to head with each other.

 

They all targeted mostly different fandoms just like July.

[YM!]

27 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Peter Rabbit isn't an animated film it's a hybrid and I have my doubts it's going to anything more than a modest hit.

 

DM3 while a success due to its budget has to concerning for Universal and Illumination as it'll mean Minions 2 and DM4 are doing to declined further. 

That's what I was thinking too. Rabbit will do $105M-$140M unless by some miracle it gets extraordinary reviews but even then opening the week before Black Panther might be a bad idea. However this puts Incredibles 2 in a good position since Peter Rabbit is the only animated family film that could do $100M+ before it opens and the family market would be extremely barren.

[Ethan Hunt]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Stupid to spend 209 million on a product that does not have pre-existing fan base and does not have really big names. 

People bitch about not getting original blockbusters

 

People bitch when they actually dish out cash to adapt a little known property.

 

 

I don't understand

[aabattery]

Paddington seems like a good comp for Peter Rabbit.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

Opened on Wed. If Fri was the OD would have been tough to rise.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=superman06.htm

 

DM3 has to show a 17% bump from true Friday (24.5) to just stay flat from Full Friday (28.6) on Sat.

 

Well, I guess we'll see.  I just don't see the logic in using DWP as a basis.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

Opened on Wed. If Fri was the OD would have been tough to rise.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=superman06.htm

 

DM3 has to show a 17% bump from true Friday (24.5) to just stay flat from Full Friday (28.6) on Sat.

 

And it's 25.5.

[That One Girl]

It's all about target audiences.

 

Spider-Man - 13-25

WFTPOTA - 25-50

Dunkirk - 30+

Valerian - 13-25

Atomic Blonde - 18-35

Emoji - under 13

 

Emoji has no competition, Valerian will have plenty of room between SM:H by the time it opens, Dunkirk will have a wider age gap than WFTPOTA, and Atomic Blonde will probably not have that much overlap with Dunkirk's audience.  They can all coexist.

[JohnnyGossamer]

League of Their Own was just on Encore. Give it up to Penny Marshall! One of OG women filmmakers! And, good god, Madonna, Geena Davis and the rest of gang were total fucking babes in that flick. Classic.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

League of Their Own was just on Encore. Give it up to Penny Marshall! One of OG women filmmakers! And, good god, Madonna, Geena Davis and the rest of gang were total fucking babes in that flick. Classic.

 

One of Hanks pre Oscar films best performances.  

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

People bitch about not getting original blockbusters

 

People bitch when they actually dish out cash to adapt a little known property.

 

 

I don't understand

 

Imagine if Star Wars came out today:

 

"Fucking that much money on a no name director and an original sci-fi flick?  BOMB INCOMING!"

[Chaz]

A League of Their Own is such a classic. I can watch it anytime, any place and be fully entertained. 

Edited July 1, 2017 by Chaz

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Imagine if Star Wars came out today:

 

"Fucking that much money on a no name director and an original sci-fi flick?  BOMB INCOMING!"

 

Not exactly a no-name. Star Wars came out after American Graffiti 

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

One of Hanks pre Oscar films best performances.  

Dugan muttering as the umpire turns and walks away..."Anyone ever tell you that you look like a penis with that little hat on..."
Upmpire "You're outta here!"