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Nova

5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

By Nova, in Numbers and Data

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, then you've definitely got it under $400M:)...

Nope. Over $400M. Thinking $425M due to the lack of family films not only in the summer but in early 2018 too.

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Zakiyyah6 Blockbuster

Zakiyyah6

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I think Incredibles was more well-liked than Monsters Inc but it definitely isn't a Toy Story or Finding Nemo. Also Incredibles 2 not being a prequel will help it out.

Edited by Zakiyyah6
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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

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1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Deadpool 2 has way more competition with its main target demo having numerous options. It opens the week after Han Solo, Bumblebee takes its PLFs and IMAX, Incredibles 2 may take some teens and families (although the latter may be something like 10%-15% of its audience), and then JW2 trucks it. 

 

I am not thinking $500M for Incredibles 2 is guaranteed. I'm thinking the range is $400M-$450M domestic. It has the major benefit of a very weak family market. 

But you're making the assumption that those films will hinder Deadpool 2 and not the other way around. Maybe I'm being ridiculous when I say this, but Deadpool 2 can easily hinder those other films at the box office too. 

 

Out of all the films youve listed the only one I'm interested in seeing is Deadpool 2 and I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way and if I am....oh well. I'm all in on the Deadpool 2 train. 

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I think Incredibles was more well-liked than Monsters Inc but it definitely isn't a Toy Story or Finding Nemo.  also Incredibles 2 not being a prequel will help it out.

I don't know, MI was the more successful of the two at the box office (admissions). Yeah, a sequel for MI likely would've performed a little better than MU did, so I agree it's not entirely a fair comparison. Again, I'm definitely expecting I2 to do better than MU, no question about that. 

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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2 minutes ago, Nova said:

But you're making the assumption that those films will hinder Deadpool 2 and not the other way around. Maybe I'm being ridiculous when I say this, but Deadpool 2 can easily hinder those other films at the box office too. 

 

Out of all the films youve listed the only one I'm interested in seeing is Deadpool 2 and I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way and if I am....oh well. I'm all in on the Deadpool 2 train. 

Deadpool is one of my favorite CBMs. I just do think 2 will increase. I do think the films will hinder each other but 2 has the potential advantage of being R rated which could increase more of a unique draw this summer. Deadpool 2 I'm thinking $350M.

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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Posted
Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

Han Solo and The Incredibles 2 are guaranteed to do well but I would hold off on thinking Bumblebee is going to be a big deal.

Bumblebee is likely doing sub $100M domestic.

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

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1 minute ago, zapzapped said:

 

Im calling it. Actuals should bring WW just over Transformers. I dont believe that it caught up on saturday.

TF5 has been ahead all weekend though based on estimates 

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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

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9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

WW:

 

Remainder of this week: 12.7M (358.8M Total)

Jul 7: 7.3M (4.4M weekdays, 370.5M Total)

Jul 14: 4.4M (2.5M weekdays, 377.4M Total)

Jul 21: 2.2M (1.4M weekdays, 381M Total)

Jul 28: 1.3M (800k weekdays, 383.1M Total)

Aug 4: 800k (400k weekdays, 384.3M Total)

 

Final Total: 386M (3.74x)

I'm thinking $390M

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Dementeleus Cinematic Universe

Dementeleus

Posted
Posted
On June 4, 2017 at 7:15 AM, WrathOfHan said:

Let's assume this hits the high end at 103M this weekend:

 

Remainder of the week: 34M (137M Total)

Jun 9: 46M (17M weekdays, 200M Total)

Jun 16: 23M (10M weekdays, 233M Total)

Jun 23: 12.6M (6M weekdays, 251.6M Total)

Jun 30: 6.3M (4M weekdays, 261.9M Total)

Jul 7: 2.8M (1.3M weekdays, 266M Total)

Jul 14: 1.6M (800k weekdays, 268.4M Total)

 

Final Total: 271M (2.63x)

 

On June 7, 2017 at 0:13 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Forecasting the rest of the run with that number:

 

Next week: 24.8M (221.8M Total)

Jun 16: 27M (13M weekdays, 261.8M Total)

Jun 23: 15M (6.8M weekdays, 283.6M Total)

Jun 30: 7.5M (4.2M weekdays, 295.3M Total)

Jul 7: 3.4M (1.5M weekdays, 300.2M Total)

Jul 14: 1.7M (800k weekdays, 302.7M Total)

Jul 21: 900k (400k weekdays, 304M Total)

 

Final Total: 307M (2.97x)

 

It's still hard to say if it can hit 300M, but the signs look somewhat encouraging.

 

On June 14, 2017 at 5:50 PM, WrathOfHan said:

New WW forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 10.8M (232.3M Total)

Jun 16: 33M (16M weekdays, 281.3M Total)

Jun 23: 18M (10M weekdays, 309.3M Total)

Jun 30: 10M (8M weekdays, 327.3M Total)

Jul 7: 5M (3.5M weekdays, 335.8M Total)

Jul 14: 2.5M (1.9M weekdays, 339.2M Total)

Jul 21: 1.3M (1M weekdays, 341.5M Total)

Jul 28: 800k (600k weekdays, 342.9M Total)

 

Final Total: 346M (3.35x) (Swear I didn't steal that multi from MovieMan lol)

 

On June 18, 2017 at 8:10 AM, WrathOfHan said:

New forecast for WW:

 

Remainder of this week: 16M (301.5M Total)

Jun 23: 23M (10M weekdays, 334.5M Total)

Jun 30: 12.5M (6.5M weekdays, 353.5M Total)

Jul 7: 6.2M (3M weekdays, 362.7M Total)

Jul 14: 3.7M (1.8M weekdays, 368.2M Total)

Jul 21: 2M (1M weekdays, 371.2M Total)

Jul 28: 1.2M (600k weekdays, 373M Total)

 

Final Total: 376M (3.64x)

 

9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

WW:

 

Remainder of this week: 12.7M (358.8M Total)

Jul 7: 7.3M (4.4M weekdays, 370.5M Total)

Jul 14: 4.4M (2.5M weekdays, 377.4M Total)

Jul 21: 2.2M (1.4M weekdays, 381M Total)

Jul 28: 1.3M (800k weekdays, 383.1M Total)

Aug 4: 800k (400k weekdays, 384.3M Total)

 

Final Total: 386M (3.74x)

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

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1 minute ago, Nova said:

But you're making the assumption that those films will hinder Deadpool 2 and not the other way around. Maybe I'm being ridiculous when I say this, but Deadpool 2 can easily hinder those other films at the box office too. 

 

Out of all the films youve listed the only one I'm interested in seeing is Deadpool 2 and I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way and if I am....oh well. I'm all in on the Deadpool 2 train. 

 

Actually i can see these movies coexist. Han Solo beeing a space adeventure, Deadpool Superhero, but also Comedy, Incredibles an animated film and JW a creature feature. They're all quite different. Deadpool has the advantage of the comedy/satirical aspect that really sets it apart from most other SH films i think.

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bruchav Indie Sensation

bruchav

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I mean its unrealistic but ide love to see a 350M Deadpool 2, 400M+ Incredibles and 500M+ JW2 next summer. I just like big numbers. And now its all just speculation/whisful thinking anyway because we do not have any actual trailers for these movies.

 

Lol, unrealistic? That's like 70%  possible

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