Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[YM!]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

I don't know why people are acting like Ragnarok is going to collapse once JL comes out when Deadpool, GOTG2, and WW all did fine against their new funny book competition.

I do think JL will do it in third weekend completely (thinking 50%-60% drop), it's the Christmas movies that'll destroy its late legs.

[AHepBurn]

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

Not that low. 775-850 will either put it at #9 (below POTC's 780-790), or #8 (between POTC and WONDR), or #7 (above WONDR's 800-820)

Below GOTG2 at #6 for sure, and above Thor3 at #10.

GotG2 is still currently under even BvS WW. I have a hard time seeing JL go under GotG2 WW.

[Noctis]

The marketing team behind Apes needs to be fired.

[Eevin]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't know why people are acting like Ragnarok is going to collapse once JL comes out when Deadpool, GOTG2, and WW all did fine against their new funny book competition.

BvS released in Deadpool's 7th weekend

SMH released in Wonder Woman's 6th weekend

Wonder Woman released in GotG2's 5th weekend

Justice League releases in Ragnarok's third weekend. Also when it starts to lose theaters. The 3rd weekend drop may be worse than the 2nd weekend.

[baumer]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

BvS already had Supes, Bats, and Wondy in all the marketing and it didn't hit a billion.

Adding Aquaman, Flash, and Cyborg won't help attract much more people.

JL needs to be great to reach the bigger numbers.

If WW had been BvS quality it would have died after OW and ended up barely reaching $200m DOM.

 

But the opening weekend suggested that if the movie was anywhere halfway decent it would have hit a billion. So if this movie is better it has a really good chance to hit a billion

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't know why people are acting like Ragnarok is going to collapse once JL comes out when Deadpool, GOTG2, and WW all did fine against their new funny book competition.

 

Neither lost screens to the new competition, Ragnarok will lose all its highest earning screens to JL. IMAX+PLF will be accounting for almost 25% of its weekend as they do for most CBMs early in their run, it will lose that 25% directly that weekend. Add in normal declines on other screens and loss of some 3D screens and falling 60% wouldn't be a surprise. Even Doctor Strange fell 60% losing those screens.

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, mredman said:

 

What is your prediction for JL ?

$ 380 - 415m in USA

$ 580 - 610m OS

 

$ 960 - 1.025b WW

[Eevin]

I'm not sold on 400+ for Justice League yet, but people predicting sub-BvS at this point are probably in for a wake-up call. Wonder Woman's massive overperformance should at least get it to 350 / 900 regardless of how good it is.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Eevin

[ThomasNicole]

9 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Might as well do Thor too:

$110M OW

$265M DOM

$485M OS

$750M WW

Agree with DOM (despite i really hope for $ 300m), but OS seems low in my opinion.

[WrathOfHan]

Anything from 280-380 wouldn't surprise me on JL. WW will have an impact, but it's still a sequel to BVS.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, Noctis said:

The marketing team behind Apes needs to be fired.

they hired a bunch of apes.

[drdungbeetle]

tracking has sucked for most things. Remember the whole "Spidey will only get 100 mil" business from a few weeks ago?

[raegr]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

they hired a bunch of apes.

Get your dirty mouses off me you dammed normies!!!

Edited July 10, 2017 by raegr

[raegr]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Anything from 280-380 wouldn't surprise me on JL. WW will have an impact, but it's still a sequel to BVS.

Amy Schumer you aren't funny!

[titanic2187]

When I saw SMH, I know how $100m openers of SMH was so importance for other July-release, fo my showing, as well as my other friend's showing, all audience saw the trailer of dunkirk and apes, when SMH scored $110m++, it suggest that million of people just saw the trailer for both, this is a very huge push and spill over effect from SMH. I wish SMH could pave the way for expected crowded July, making every July wide-release be perform inline or even overperformed with what they deserve.

 

July is known as a massive month, with $1.3b gross in average for each year, only 2014's figure fall short of $1b, and that's terribly bad as it's extremely rare to see july dip below $1b.

If July performed "normally", then it should be have enough room for 3-4 tentpoles release  

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Anything from 280-380 wouldn't surprise me on JL. WW will have an impact, but it's still a sequel to BVS.

 

There's alot of proud females and younger girls who fully supported WW and will completely skip JL.

 

WW was empowering, JL is get drunk and text/talk through the movie.

[grey ghost]

10 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

$ 380 - 415m in USA

$ 580 - 610m OS

 

$ 960 - 1.025b WW

 

Tomato Law dictates that JL will be lucky to hit 900 m WW.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Tomato Law dictates that JL will be lucky to hit 900 m WW.

I have a gut feeling JL will be fresh.

[grey ghost]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

But the opening weekend suggested that if the movie was anywhere halfway decent it would have hit a billion. So if this movie is better it has a really good chance to hit a billion

 

Snyder and Batfleck's names will hurt the OW.

 

Not everyone is willing to easily forget their unpleasant BvS experience.

 

CW didn't wipe the slate completely clean for SMH.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Tomato Law dictates that JL will be lucky to hit 900 m WW.

even as someone supporting dceu, i completely see this.

i mean if not for wondr's performance this summer, i would gone below bvs dom and os.

 

ditto for aquaman 65-75 ow. i can totally see that. after all it's in december.

before star wars 7, the december ow record was hobbit with 84.6. It's still number 3 after sw7 and rogue one.

84.6 ow and legged it to 300+. that's just how december is. with 70 ow aquaman would have a legit shot at 250.

in summer on the other hand, it would open around 100 to do 250

Edited July 10, 2017 by a2knet