DUNKIRK WEEKEND THREAD | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS | Official estimates Dunkirk 50.5M, GT 30.3M, SMH 22M, Apes 20.4M, Val 17M | Wonder Woman is the new summer champ with 389M total | Summer Sale is Live!

[dxmatrixdt]

good increase for Valerian.  Should see a Sunday hold that equals the real Friday # for a 17.0 weekend.  17 weekend to 1.7 previews the same ratio  as Ghost in the Shell 18 weekend to 1.8 previews.

[franfar]

35 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

The Great Wall > Valerian confirmed.

 

Victory for the bun @MrPink. Good news for the club @franfar.

Excellent

[dxmatrixdt]

where is everyone?

[FantasticBeasts]

I don't think the key for Valerian's failure was going up against Dunkirk. Weren't there better release dates?

Yes. But I think their target audience was vastly different, considering that Valerian was screwing far younger.

It was actually nice counter programming.

The problem with Valerian was that it was a completely unknown property that no-one gave a shit about and the whole marketing campaign made nothing to change that.

It was meant to flop and it did. No surprises here.

[aabattery]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

I don't think the key for Valerian's failure was going up against Dunkirk. Weren't there better release dates?

Yes. But I think their target audience was vastly different, considering that Valerian was screwing far younger.

It was actually nice counter programming.

The problem with Valerian was that it was a completely unknown property that no-one gave a shit about and the whole marketing campaign made nothing to change that.

It was meant to flop and it did. No surprises here.

 

Nah. The loss of premium screens really hurt it IMO. It was always going to end poorly, but with a mid-August release or something similar it would probably open a fair amount higher.

[Maxmoser3]

15 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

where is everyone?

In bed it's after 4 am 

[FantasticBeasts]

10 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Nah. The loss of premium screens really hurt it IMO. It was always going to end poorly, but with a mid-August release or something similar it would probably open a fair amount higher.

I get what you mean and I said this myself that there were better release dates but as I said it has always been a flop waiting to happen.

[dxmatrixdt]

2 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

In bed it's after 4 am 

usually at least 10 people are browsing 24/7.  did everyone get booted?

[Maxmoser3]

5 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

usually at least 10 people are browsing 24/7.  did everyone get booted?

I'm not sure

[a2k]

Giving a 24% Sunday drop, Spidey could drop below 51%. I am practically thrilled.

 

6.34 + 8.8 + 6.69 (-24%) = 21.83 (-50.6% from 44.2) / 251.5 cume

 

I think it's set for ~305 dom (2.60x) which is good (but honestly a little lower than I expected after the ow).

 

 

[aabattery]

Half an hour till Dunkirk in that sweet, sweet IMAX. Very excited.

[a2k]

24% Sunday drop will give APES 20.6 2nd weekend, which is a 63.3% drop.

The cume will be 98 after 10-days.

 

Will need ~2.5x the 2nd weekend more for 150 Dom (98 + 51.5 = ~150).

 

145-150 dom will still be 2.58-2.66x off the ow. Not bad really for a tri-quel. But overall disappointing for sure.

Edited July 23, 2017 by a2knet

[a2k]

That is a 24.5% bump for DUNKIRK from true Friday. Ok, color me surprised. APES jumped 13% from true Friday. That was a tri-quel but still, after the OD front-loading I thought DUNKIRK won't do much better than 10-15% Sat bump.

 

5.5 + 14.3 + 17.8 (+24.5%) + 13.7 (-23%) = 51.3

 

If it does that, then 3.3-3.4x multi gives it 169-174 dom. Needs 3.5x to go over GET OUT as the biggest original film of the year so far.

[dxmatrixdt]

I checked out the 5 showings (70MM IMAX - Irvine Spectrum) tomorrow for reserved seating and I have not seen it that occupied since Force Awakens.  Roughly 400+ seat capacity at $20 each = $8,000 per showing.  Maybe close to 200k for the weekend.  Will be interested to see if RTH posts the top grossing locations of the weekend come actuals.

[DAJK]

Both Valerian and Dunkirk overperforming at my theatre. Valerian should manage our equivalent of 25M easily, but apparently weather might suck tomorrow so I wouldn't be surprised if it hardly drops from Saturday for a weekend closer to 27-28.

 

Dunkirk taking advantage of the senior crowd, which means I had to adjust numbers a bit considering over 50% of tickets sold were seniors price. After a 18.4M Friday (we didn't have previews) it had a great Saturday increase to 22.9M. If it follows American sniper and hacksaw ridge's Sunday drop it will be at 56M here for the weekend but again cause of the weather I could see 58-60M.

[Hatebox]

Saw Apes yesterday. Really, really good but yes: sadly I get why it's struggling.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Saw Apes yesterday. Really, really good but yes: sadly I get why it's struggling.

Haven't seen it, but curious to know why you think it's struggling. If it's possible to answer it in a non-spoliery way can you do it? Thanks

 

Edited July 23, 2017 by a2knet

[Hatebox]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

Haven't seen it, but curious to know why you think it's struggling. If it's possible to answer it in a non-spoliery way can you do it? Thanks

 

I'd heartily recommend it to anyone. But I can see a lot of people simply thinking it's too heavy to say to friends 'it's really cool, check it out!' Probably doesn't help that humans are generally portrayed far more horribly in this one than the previous two.

[ZeeSoh]

Great number for Dunkirk. Locks 50m OW unless Sunday falls by 30% or more which seems unlikely. A total around 51-53 million seems likely. 

 

Great number for GT too. That number guarantees a 30m+ OW unless. It would need to fall more than 33% on Sunday to miss 30 million now. 31-32 is the range for it IMO. 

 

Good increase for SMH. A total around 22 seems likely for a 50.5% weekend fall. Good increase for Apes too finally. Looking around a 63% fall for a 20.5-21 weekend number

 

A good hold for Valerian too infact. It fell just 8% from Friday (25% increase from true friday). 17-17.5m OW incoming. Still a very poor and disappointing total though. Likely to miss 50 million DOM

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Good increase for Apes too finally. Looking around a 63% fall for a 20.5-21 weekend number

 

A good hold for Valerian too infact. It fell just 8% from Friday (25% increase from true friday). 17-17.5m OW incoming. Still a very poor and disappointing total though. Likely to miss 50 million DOM

1st good day for Apes. It also surprised last Saturday with a better jump from true Fri than expected.

 

I think 17.5 is still tough for Val. 6.5 + 6 + 5 (-16.7%) = 17.5 ... mid-late July openers usually fall low-20s.

Really did not see this failing to beat JA's ow, what with with early previews these days (this started at 5pm Thu!) and surely a more sincere looking product.

 

Sadly feel Atomic is gonna follow suit next weekend. Not feeling the hype, but then it has only a 30m prod budget, so 15 ow will be good too.