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Alli

Ferguson vs Lawrence| The Snowman OVER Mother

The Snowman OVER Mother  

19 members have voted

  1. 1. The Snowman OVER Mother



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-The Snowmen is more accessible. It's based on a best selling book. I feel like legs will be very good. It looks like a breath of fresh air compared to the other movie releases

 

-Mother will be divisive. I think it can open to 20M, but i don't know about legs. Doesn't seem like a horror movie general audience will enjoy. It could pull a "It comes at night"

 

-Acting wise, i gotta root for the best. Rebecca Ferguson> Jen Lawrence

 

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Out. I'm warming (heh) up to The Snowman's chances, but I still doubt it crosses 50M. It should be a solid midsize hit with 15/50. mother!'s reactions are either love it or hate it, so I'm expecting a 10 Cloverfield Lane run (another Paramount horror film that many thought would collapse after OW).

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1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

Out.  mother! will do like $40M but Snowman will probably do sub-$30M

Why so low? I don't get it. I think it looks awesome. And who cares about fassbender? he never did this kind of role before so we don't know if the public buys him in it. this type of thriller can survive without the actor being a powerhouse. it's about the story

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4 minutes ago, Alli said:

Why so low? I don't get it. I think it looks awesome. And who cares about fassbender? he never did this kind of role before so we don't know if the public buys him in it. this type of thriller can survive without the actor being a powerhouse. it's about the story

 

It looks too cliche to stand out and it's opening in a rather overcrowded market.  I think it's getting lost in the shuffle.

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8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

1. mother! won't be a big player

2. It'll be out on Blu-Ray in time for Christmas

It is already getting a much stronger reception than Joy, and Jlaw got a best actress nomination there. I can definitely see BP nomination along with acting nominations and maybe director. Still early though.

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Just now, straggler said:

It is already getting a much stronger reception than Joy, and Jlaw got a best actress nomination there. I can definitely see BP nomination along with acting nominations and maybe director. Still early though.

This is also a much different film with lots of violence and graphic imagery. The Academy probably won't embrace it, though I still have it getting some nominations (JLaw is not one of them).

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3 minutes ago, straggler said:

It is already getting a much stronger reception than Joy, and Jlaw got a best actress nomination there. I can definitely see BP nomination along with acting nominations and maybe director. Still early though.

Her nomination for Joy was in a rather slim year for Best Actress, and the role was the kind the Academy usually recognizes. mother! is apparently too weird and won't be factoring into the race beyond techs (and even those are looking like a long shot for now).

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I'm always Team Lawrence, but I have no idea which movie will make more.  mother!'s budget was $13 M and is clearly a passion project.  I think it will make money but be divisive.  On the other hand, I have no feel for Snowman at all.

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Good club, 2 movie not too easy to predict, with legs probably defining who would win this 

 

Box office pro has it right now really close:

 

10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000   $31,000,000     Universal

 

9/15/2017       mother! $10,500,000   $36,000,000 33% 2,800 Paramount

 

 

Not sure about award player, if it is a wide september release, it cannot affect box office really much, the first relevant award on the domestic box office would be the golden globes nomination and that is far away.

 

With the strength of the reception, Snowman feel safer for now, but will wait for the mothers reviews to reach a higher number before making the decision.

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Snowman looks like a run of the mill mediocre serial killer movie and is starring an actor that turned people off when his name was mentioned on a survey. Love Fassy as an actor but I believe he is box office poison. RF isn't a factor one way or the other, most don't know who she is. 

 

On the other hand Mother is a hard sale so it might not do too well either. Unlike The Snowman it at least looks like something new and interesting which might help it. Hell, the polarizing controversy might help it as well. 

 

I think it's a toss up in the battle of the probably low grossing films, so I am out of this club.

 

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