STEPHEN KING'S IT WEEKEND THREAD | 117.15 Mill!....NO SPOILERS..NOT EVEN IN TAGS!

[FlashMaster659]

$47M would mean nearly beating the September OW record in a single day. INSANE.

[The Panda]

I'm gonna wait to call it success until a few weeks, but it feels good seeing I wasn't crazy with my 100m / 300m predicts for this movie.

[kitik]

not as many voters as usual in the Most Anticipated Movies thread last week

 

while you're waiting to go see It, head over there and give your top ten movies of the next year:

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/667-box-office-theorys-most-anticipated-films/?page=314

[a2k]

Yeah best to temper expectations lest it "only" does a ridiculous 40 od.

40.5 would be 3x the previews or true Friday being 2x the previews. BVS did that last year on Easter Friday.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

$47M would mean nearly beating the September OW record in a single day. INSANE.

47m od would beat all these 2017 dom totals

 

34	Snatched	Fox	$45,852,178	3,511	$19,542,248	3,501	5/12	8/3
35	The Great Wall	Uni.	$45,157,105	3,328	$18,469,620	3,326	2/17	4/6
36	Smurfs: The Lost Village	Sony	$45,020,282	3,610	$13,210,449	3,610	4/7	8/3
37	Going in Style (2017)	WB (NL)	$45,018,541	3,076	$11,932,330	3,061	4/7	7/13
38	All Eyez on Me	LG/S	$44,922,302	2,471	$26,435,354	2,471	6/16	8/3
39	xXx: The Return of Xander Cage	Par.	$44,898,413	3,651	$20,130,142	3,651	1/20	3/16
40	47 Meters Down	ENTMP	$44,100,508	2,471	$11,205,561	2,270	6/16	-
41	The Big Sick	LGF	$41,548,894	2,597	$421,577	5	6/23	-
42	Ghost in the Shell (2017)	Par.	$40,563,557	3,440	$18,676,033	3,440	3/31	5/25
43	Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets	STX	$40,203,005	3,553	$17,007,624	3,553	7/21	-
44	King Arthur: Legend of the Sword	WB	$39,175,066	3,702	$15,371,270	3,702	5/12	7/20

[kitik]

So I've only read about 5 random pages of the 31 in this thread, but is reasonable to speculate that American Assassin and mother! are going to get completely overlooked thanks to It's second weekend next week? Neither of them were likely to be very big in the first place, but they're going to get zero attention now, and possibly be even smaller than they were initially going to be. Expecting It to be very buzz-y and WOM-y well into next weekend.

[kitik]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

47m od would beat all these 2017 dom totals

 

34	Snatched	Fox	$45,852,178	3,511	$19,542,248	3,501	5/12	8/3
35	The Great Wall	Uni.	$45,157,105	3,328	$18,469,620	3,326	2/17	4/6
36	Smurfs: The Lost Village	Sony	$45,020,282	3,610	$13,210,449	3,610	4/7	8/3
37	Going in Style (2017)	WB (NL)	$45,018,541	3,076	$11,932,330	3,061	4/7	7/13
38	All Eyez on Me	LG/S	$44,922,302	2,471	$26,435,354	2,471	6/16	8/3
39	xXx: The Return of Xander Cage	Par.	$44,898,413	3,651	$20,130,142	3,651	1/20	3/16
40	47 Meters Down	ENTMP	$44,100,508	2,471	$11,205,561	2,270	6/16	-
41	The Big Sick	LGF	$41,548,894	2,597	$421,577	5	6/23	-
42	Ghost in the Shell (2017)	Par.	$40,563,557	3,440	$18,676,033	3,440	3/31	5/25
43	Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets	STX	$40,203,005	3,553	$17,007,624	3,553	7/21	-
44	King Arthur: Legend of the Sword	WB	$39,175,066	3,702	$15,371,270	3,702	5/12	7/20

 

 

huge budgets down at #43 and 44!

[DAR]

31 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I don't think American Assassin is aiming for the "dad" audience (or anybody, really).

I think it has tons of dad movie potential.  Based on a spy/thriller novel, has an older star that can appeal to them.  Probably tons of other "That guy" actors.  It's true success will be on cable

Edited September 8, 2017 by DAR

[Deep Wang]

18 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I feel it's gonna be just in the middle $44-45m

 

It very well could drop, however, let me tell you this.

 

Every theatre right now is adding more shows tonight.  I checked online and we've already added 2 for now, with more maybe coming as the night goes on.  

 

It's still really fucking early.  Depending on how they are extrapolating the night shows, I could see it hitting $50m.  More than that I'm not certain, but that would be a reasonable $3m increase over the initial estimate of $47m.

 

Either way, it's gonna be a roller coaster weekend, so buckle up and hang on!

[That One Girl]

20 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

JUST THREE AND A HALF HOURS, FUCK I'M SO EXCITED

 

Just to clarify, I'm talking about 9/11

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, kitik said:

So I've only read about 5 random pages of the 31 in this thread, but is reasonable to speculate that American Assassin and mother! are going to get completely overlooked thanks to It's second weekend next week? Neither of them were likely to be very big in the first place, but they're going to get zero attention now, and possibly be even smaller than they were initially going to be. Expecting It to be very buzz-y and WOM-y well into next weekend.

I doubt either will do better or worse than they would have without it. mother! will likely have some upfront curiosity just because it has JLaw in a mysterious project but it sounds like Aronofsky has made something that will repel mainstream audiences so we can probably kiss its legs goodbye prematurely. American Assassin would've had more potential with a PG-13 rating, the marketing hasn't given anyone who isn't a Dylan O'Brien fan a reason to see it.

[baumer]

Isn't it amazing that we're having a weekend like this at the beginning of September? This is why we follow the box office ladies and gentlemen. This is what nerds like us live for. I know myself when I get off work tonight I'm going to be texting rth incessantly. I will be reloading deadline and I'll be checking Twitter. I can't wait to see what the number comes in at.

[kitik]

boxoffice.com with a very round 100/250 early prediction for Thor Ragnarok:

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-thor-ragnarok-bad-moms-christmas/

[That One Girl]

Honestly, the runs that I love the most aren't the big ones that everyone predicts are gonna do well.  It's films like It, American Sniper, Deadpool, Split, Get Out, that just surprise everyone and make the box office fun to follow.  I love it.

[Joel M]

That 47m number is INSANE! I thought it would do 70-75m OW even with all the buzz. WB is having an amazing year.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, kitik said:

boxoffice.com with a very round 100/250 early prediction for Thor Ragnarok:

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-thor-ragnarok-bad-moms-christmas/

They're also predicting A Bad Moms Christmas to make $30M/$85M, which sounds about right (and would be the best audience retention of any comedy sequel outside of The Hangover 2/22 Jump Street/Pitch Perfect 2 this decade so far by a wide margin).

[KJsooner]

Came back to see the opening day number.

 

saw it, and this is my reaction.

 

[grim22]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

They're also predicting A Bad Moms Christmas to make $30M/$85M, which sounds about right (and would be the best audience retention of any comedy sequel outside of The Hangover 2/22 Jump Street/Pitch Perfect 2 this decade so far by a wide margin).

That actually sounds right. Even I'm thinking in the 30-35M range for opening. It seems like a sequel that the audience wanted as opposed to Daddy's Home 2

[kitik]

2 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:

Isn't it amazing that we're having a weekend like this at the beginning of September? 

 

 

I think after a number of high-profile hits in the springs of the past few years, lots of folks have argued that the old movie "seasons" aren't as needed for a movie's success as they used to be. And certainly October hits like Gravity or Martian fed the arguments that it doesn't matter so much when you release your movie anymore.

 

And now finally the September dragon has been slayed too.

 

Hope this means more big releases in all 12 months of the year. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

That actually sounds right. Even I'm thinking in the 30-35M range for opening. It seems like a sequel that the audience wanted as opposed to Daddy's Home 2

Also helps that it doesn't look like it's simply rehashing its predecessor (by touching on the stress imposed upon moms around the holidays along with introducing the bad moms of the Bad Moms).