Weekend topic: BOM || Happy Death Day: $26.5M || Blade Runner: $15.1M || The Foreigner: $12.8M || IT: $6M || Annabelle: Creation at $300m WW

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm actually thinking the box office will be enough to propel her into the race alone. FWIW she's currently in my Best Actress predictions (along with Hawkins/McDormand/Robbie/Streep).

I don't think Robbie is going to get much of a push or campaign from Neon. I don't think they're capable and if the movie was a serious awards contender another distributor would have picked it up for more than $3m

[Zakiyyah6]

I think it's too early to rule out Robbie or anyone else.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I don't think Robbie is going to get much of a push or campaign from Neon. I don't think they're capable and if the movie was a serious awards contender another distributor would have picked it up for more than $3m

It has a very serious Supporting Actress contender in Janney though so Robbie is likely gonna get a strong push. As for Neon, they were actually the second highest bidder for the film behind Netflix. Clearly the producers wanted the theatrical distribution (a wise choice when the Academy is reportedly cracking down on preventing Netflix films from contending).

[Mr Impossible]

Say what you want about Blade Runner 2049 but it can win 2 or more Oscars. (Visual Effects, Cinematography, Production Design, one of the Sound Mixing category) It can also get nominated for BP and Director. 

[MCKillswitch123]

30 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

 

Excellent number! And unlike pretty much everyone's predictions, not only did Friday The 13th not account for half of this movie's OW, but its multiplier was actually pretty decent for a gimmicked release (gimmick in question being FT13th for this). 2.29x internal multiplier, much better than All Eyez On Me's int. multi, or the similarly released Friday The 13th remake's 2.1x as well. And, thanks to the strong wom, it could finish at over 80M on a 5M budget. Horror has another hit in hands.

 

33 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$6.75m for Blade Runner 2049 on Saturday so right near $11m so far.  Should hit $15m+ for the weekend.  That is a lot more encouraging than $13.6m 

Thank GOD if it hits those numbers. A sub-55% drop would be massively encouraging given the movie's run so far.

 

25 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Good number for American Made, 50M should be in the bank.

 

Victoria & Abdul also doing very nicely - another example of why a slower expansion is better than going ultrawide too quickly, as demonstrated by both this vs. Battle Of The Sexes, and The Big Sick vs. The Beguiled earlier this year.

 

Professor Marston is a megaflop, those numbers are pitiful. Annapurna is 0-2 between this and Detroit. Clearly their solo distribution run hasn't worked out very well at all.

[WrathOfHan]

I'm predicting Robbie but she's fifth in my predictions behind the top 3 and Chastain. I don't think I, Tonya has many avenues to go at the Oscars, but Actress normally has some new blood. All of the other main contenders are either previous nominees or winners. Plus, this is looking to be an older skewing field (Robbie, Ronan, and Lawrence are the only main contenders under 40), which also isn't typical for the category.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It has a very serious Supporting Actress contender in Janney though so Robbie is likely gonna get a strong push. As for Neon, they were actually the second highest bidder for the film behind Netflix. Clearly the producers wanted the theatrical distribution (a wise choice when the Academy is reportedly cracking down on preventing Netflix films from contending).

They turned down a preliminary offer by I think CBS for $6m and there was a bidding war among other distributors but decided to wait until after it played.  Then even though it got very good reviews those earlier bids dried up.  Supporting is always easier to get your foot in the door and Janney has a lot of built in industry respect.  SAG could push her to a nom.

[filmlover]

Just now, Mr Impossible said:

Say what you want about Blade Runner 2049 but it can win 2 or more Oscars. (Visual Effects, Cinematography, Production Design, one of the Sound Mixing category) It can also get nominated for BP and Director. 

The box office really needed to be stronger (much stronger, even) for it to seriously contend in Picture or Director. I have it in Adapted Screenplay based on how pathetic that category is. A slew of tech noms are a given though, yeah.

[Mr Impossible]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

The box office really needed to be stronger (much stronger, even) for it to seriously contend in Picture or Director. I have it in Adapted Screenplay based on how pathetic that category is. A slew of tech noms are a given though, yeah.

I’m not predicting it to win. But I do think the film can elicit enough passion to get nominated for BP and the directing branch have been known to throw curveball noms. Hugo was a flop and it won 5 Oscars, so was Master and Commander. I do think it is the frontrunner for Cinematography and Visual Effects. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I remember when some thought Eight Legged Freaks would do well in 2002 because Spider-Man was a smash. Another movie that's a complete other genre and that doesn't look interesting enough to the audience will not benefit from some small connection to a Smash Hit. It's been proven over and over again and some still fall for the idea.

[narniadis]

I would be so overjoyed to be able to Allison Janney - Academy Award Winner.... I have loved her acting for years and am glad she is finally getting actual award recognition again (seemed like post West Wing she wasn't getting much traction anywhere.)

 

Also that would be a great saturday # for Blade Runner - 15m is better than 13.5 thats for sure.

 

Great #1 by Happy Death Day - heres to hoping it has good legs.

[filmlover]

Blade Runner is more likely a Saturday or Sunday kind of movie because of how long it is.

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Victoria & Abdul also doing very nicely - another example of why a slower expansion is better than going ultrawide too quickly, as demonstrated by both this vs. Battle Of The Sexes, and The Big Sick vs. The Beguiled earlier this year.

 

Professor Marston is a megaflop, those numbers are pitiful. Annapurna is 0-2 between this and Detroit. Clearly their solo distribution run hasn't worked out very well at all.

FS basically followed it's Gifted pattern with BOS - it just didn't work out as well.  Ditto The Zookeeper's Wife v Beguiled for Focus.

 

Annapurna is showing how green it is but the subject matter for both probably limited how much either of these could make even with slower WOM releases.  Detroit needed to be released in the Awards corridor for maximum buzz.

[filmlover]

Battle of the Sexes ended up getting really lost in the shuffle. Fox Searchlight honestly should've released it in the summer when it could've served as adult-friendly counterprogramming.

[Ethan Hunt]

12 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:

Say what you want about Blade Runner 2049 but it can win 2 or more Oscars. (Visual Effects, Cinematography, Production Design, one of the Sound Mixing category) It can also get nominated for BP and Director. 

Don't think there is any way director happens. Picture is still possible I suppose.

 

Anyways I'm just holding out for the cinematography  win. If it gets that I'll call it a day

[Mr Impossible]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

Don't think there is any way director happens. Picture is still possible I suppose.

 

Anyways I'm just holding out for the cinematography  win. If it gets that I'll call it a day

This feels a lot like a movie directors would appreciate. It is very much a directorial showcase.

[Boxofficerules]

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Great number for Happy Death Day.

 

It's nice Blade Runner is estimated to be over 15mil (who knows if that will hold) as that's better than 14mil but still not an encouraging enough drop for a film with such a huge budget. Lets be real, it needed a 40% drop.

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, Mr Impossible said:

This feels a lot like a movie directors would appreciate. It is very much a directorial showcase.

I feel like Jordan Peele has a better chance Tbh considering his film is pretty much locked for a picture nominated athe this point (and honestly in the wildest of scenarios  I could see it winning)

 

[WrathOfHan]

I'm still predicting Blade Runner in Picture. Bad box office won't hurt the movie imo