Weekend topic: BOM || Happy Death Day: $26.5M || Blade Runner: $15.1M || The Foreigner: $12.8M || IT: $6M || Annabelle: Creation at $300m WW

[Fancyarcher]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

Actually there are at least four films that seem pretty locked. Maybe more I don't pay attention to this stuff as much as others.

 

Locked:

Dunkirk

CMBYN

the Shape of Water

Get Out

 

If any of those four miss I'll jump off a bridge or something 

Though anything can happen like I said, I'd like it if those four were all nominated. I'd also say Three Billboards has a strange chance too.

[WrathOfHan]

12 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

@WrathOfHan there are a lot of seniors at my showing for Marshall

RIP

6 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Actually there are at least four films that seem pretty locked. Maybe more I don't pay attention to this stuff as much as others.

 

Locked:

Dunkirk

CMBYN

the Shape of Water

Get Out

 

If any of those four miss I'll jump off a bridge or something 

Get Out isn't locked. Likely, but not locked.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

http://deadline.com/2017/10/annabelle-creation-crosses-300-million-worldwide-box-office-conjuring-universe-1202188768/

 

 

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

RIP

Get Out isn't locked. Likely, but not locked.

Again I'd willingly bet my life on it

[Mockingjay Raphael]

HDD is killing OS as well, biggest OW ever for a BH title in Brazil, +70% compared to Ouija 2 in Australia. It may reach $200M WW on a $5m budget, another massive win for Uni/BH.

[Krissykins]

17 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

HDD is killing OS as well, biggest OW ever for a BH title in Brazil, +70% compared to Ouija 2 in Australia. It may reach $200M WW on a $5m budget, another massive win for Uni/BH.

Where are you projecting $200m from?? 

 

This film has brought out the crazy in you. 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Where are you projecting $200m from?? 

 

This film has brought out the crazy in you. 

DOM will finish at $80M. OS is looking between $80M-$100M for now, if it has some breakouts in Horror friendly markets (Mexico/SK/Indonesia), it has a small chance at reaching $120M.

[Frozen]

1 hour ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

I wish Mareston would have made more since it such a good film.

 

It's very sad indeed. I know the actors put a lot into it and so did the director.

[WrathOfHan]

Only the Brave won't have a huge boost from the Flatliners double feature last night:

 

12

FLATLINERS (2017) Sony / Columbia 1,983

$465,000 +114.5% / $234 $14,592,971 / 15

$660,000 +41.9% / $333 $15,252,971 / 16

$375,000 -43.2% / $189 $15,627,971 / 17

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Only the Brave won't have a huge boost from the Flatliners double feature last night:

 

12

FLATLINERS (2017) Sony / Columbia 1,983

$465,000 +114.5% / $234 $14,592,971 / 15

$660,000 +41.9% / $333 $15,252,971 / 16

$375,000 -43.2% / $189 $15,627,971 / 17

People missing out on a great movie.

Spoiler

And one that is hilariously trashy too.

 

[KeepItU25071906]

28 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

DOM will finish at $80M. 

Or 65-70 mln.

[Webslinger]

Happy Death Day had a very solid breakout. The premise was intriguing and the market was wide open for an appealing PG-13 film after so many consecutive weeks of R-rated films topping the box office. As the only PG-13 horror game in town, it should nail good holds in the next two weeks.

 

It's too bad that Blade Runner 2049 got hit so hard, and things probably won't get any easier with so many new releases taking up screen space in the coming weeks. Sadly, it's now very safe to rule out a $100 million total, which would have seemed unthinkable prior to the film's opening.

 

The Foreigner did okay in its domestic opening, but the international numbers so far point to the fact that the film is definitely more of an overseas play. Nevertheless, it looks pretty generic and Jackie Chan hasn't been a big domestic draw on his own in quite some time, so opening in double digits is a good accomplishment.

 

It held up well again. A finish in the $325-330 million range is still in order.

 

The Mountain Between Us had a medicore hold in the face of its small expansion.

 

American Made and Kingsman both recovered nicely after their big drops last weekend. Kingsman might just be able to squeak past $100 million after all.

 

Lego Ninjago should see a couple more good holds, but it's not good that the film will ultimately end up needing a month to make as much as Lego Batman did in its opening weekend.

 

My Little Pony got hit hard, but it should benefit from the lack of new kid-friendly films in the next two weeks.

 

Victoria and Abdul has been a nice quiet success story thus far. It has basically become the solid small performer I'm sure most people were expecting Battle of the Sexes to be.

 

Marshall did okay in its limited start. I feel like the ad campaign was very quiet, so a $3 million weekend from such few theatres is a relative win.

 

Professor Marston and the Wonder Women bombed hard. The subject matter isn't exactly an easy sell for mainstream viewers, but Annapurna looked desperate in all its attempts to connect the look and style of the campaign to Wonder Woman. I'm a big fan of most of what Megan Ellison has backed as a producer, so I hope the early floundering of Annapurna as a distributor eventually turns around - especially with, ahem, one classy distribution outlet landing in big trouble.

[Blankments]

13 hours ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

 

 

I'm going to see MY LITTLE PONY before I see BR90210. 

Good.

[MCKillswitch123]

Dunkirk, Call Me By Your Name and Shape Of Water, right now, are the only LOCKS for a BP nomination. And even Dunkirk is a shady lock, due to the Academy's disinterest in Nolan, for.... whatever reason. Inception is the only movie of his nominated for BP, after all. But Dunkirk is helped by being a WWII movie, so there's that.

 

Get Out is not a lock for anything other than MAYYYYYBE Original Screenplay. It does have a good chance though, as do Three Billboards and Blade Runner 2049. The Post and, if it lives up to its potential, Murder On The Orient Express could also be players. One of A24's big three (Disaster Artist, Florida Project or Lady Bird) will get there too, though maybe moreso Lady Bird as it's already looking solid for an acting nomination for Saoirse.

 

EDIT: OHH, forgot about War For The Planet Of The Apes. That one could be a dark horse player too - lots of AAA BP contenders, between Apes, Dunkirk, 2049 and perhaps Murder. Molly's Game is also a contender.

Edited October 15, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[Moviedweeb]

3 hours ago, Alli said:

So AM is not getting a China release?

I haven’t seen anything since this:

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cannes-chinas-jetsen-takes-stake-tom-cruises-american-made-1004969

[Cmasterclay]

Murder on the Orient Express is a commercial play that is starting to look like it also won't make alot of money. I can see under 40 on RT and under 80 domestic total, sadly. Isn't early word really bad?

 

I have Dunkirk, Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Darkest Hour, and Call Me By Your Name all as locks or at least very safe feeling. The Post has a good shot if it's even barely near expectations. I have I, Tonya, Lady Bird, and Get Out in the final three spots, but I could just as easily see about ten other movies, with Blade Runner and Florida Project justttt missing. Good, deep year.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Dunkirk, Call Me By Your Name and Shape Of Water, right now, are the only LOCKS for a BP nomination. And even Dunkirk is a shady lock, due to the Academy's disinterest in Nolan, for.... whatever reason. Inception is the only movie of his nominated for BP, after all. But Dunkirk is helped by being a WWII movie, so there's that.

 

Get Out is not a lock for anything other than MAYYYYYBE Original Screenplay. It does have a good chance though, as do Three Billboards and Blade Runner 2049. The Post and, if it lives up to its potential, Murder On The Orient Express could also be players. One of A24's big three (Disaster Artist, Florida Project or Lady Bird) will get there too, though maybe moreso Lady Bird as it's already looking solid for an acting nomination for Saoirse.

This is what I'd say regarding the field:

 

1. Three Billboards

2. The Shape of Water

3. Dunkirk

4. Call Me by Your Name

5. The Post

----------------------------

6. Darkest Hour

----------------------------

7. The Big Sick

8. Blade Runner 2049

9. Get Out

----------------------------

10. Molly's Game

11-13. A24's stuff (Florida/Lady Bird/Disaster Artist)

----------------------------

14. mother!

15. Phantom Thread

 

I think the first five are all locks and any of them could win. Darkest Hour is very likely to get in, but the falling Metascore is a tad worrying. 7-9 all have strong factors in their favor (Amazon's #1/huge tech player/genre gamechanger) with slight factors against them (does it stand out enough/box office bomb/potential to only have one other nomination). If there's a 10th spot, I think Molly's Game has the best chance. A screenplay nomination is assured, and Chastain has a decent chance of being nominated. Elba and a tech or two isn't out of the question either. STX is the big question mark though. I don't think A24 will be able to get anything in because they don't have a clear #1; if they become more focused, maybe I'll add one to the 10th spot. Then I have mother! and Phantom thread with slight chances. mother! obviously has some very passionate fans (ahem), but the number of fans needs to be large enough for a nomination. Phantom Thread will suffer from late screeners and the possibility of being too niche.

[MCKillswitch123]

Didn't mention Darkest Hour but that's one of the likeliest contenders too. A nomination for Oldman is almost a lock as well (probably the closest thing to a lock in the acting nominations across the board, really).

 

I don't know about The Big Sick... it could make it in in maybe a row of 10 nominees, but apart from that, I don't know. It's probably the likeliest comedy to get in there, though, between it and The Disaster Artist.

 

mother!? C'mon, dude, I know you're a big stan for it but....  

 

Phantom Thread..... I actually agree that it could be too niche. Though I'll never count out the PTA/DDL dynamic duo, but still.

[Frozen]

27 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

Professor Marston and the Wonder Women bombed hard. The subject matter isn't exactly an easy sell for mainstream viewers, but Annapurna looked desperate in all its attempts to connect the look and style of the campaign to Wonder Woman. I'm a big fan of most of what Megan Ellison has backed as a producer, so I hope the early floundering of Annapurna as a distributor eventually turns around - especially with, ahem, one classy distribution outlet landing in big trouble.

 

There is no hope for Annapurna. There are people on this board smarter than the people running that company when it comes to releases and promotion. Everyone saw this mistake a mile away, but they didn't 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

mother!? C'mon, dude, I know you're a big stan for it but....  

 

I don't know, Paramount is putting a loooooooooooot of effort into campaigning it. Aronofsky is hosting a lot of industry screenings, and then you have stuff like Scorsese's defense (and Harvey's  ) of mother! and how it's a masterpiece. It's definitely their #1 film this season because Surburbicon is a flop and Downsizing has mixed reviews with the positive ones not being that passionate. I'M NOT WRITING IT OFF YET GODDAMMIT!

Edited October 15, 2017 by WrathOfHan